December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Out to day 8, not even close.

 

 

No dirty ridge over us at least.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_36.png

[ShawniganLake]

No dirty ridge over us at least.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_36.png

Thank god.  I hate inversions with a passion, unless there is a decent amount of snow on the ground.  I would take pretty much anything over a January 2013. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

 Just a little reminder of what we are seeing in la-la-land is noise at this point. Not saying don't watch it, just letting some of our less informed visitors (not the veterans) know that anything past 5 days or so, specially without total model consensus, is to be highly doubted at this point. Below is an example of what the models were showing on a consistent basis for about 4 to 5 days straight for what things would look like on January 3rd and beyond. AS we know this will not and did not happen. NOT even close... Although it is super pretty to look at and gets the heart racing a little.

 

That being said the hints of cold returning by the second or third week of January are not out of the realm of possibilities BUT at this point the odds could be compared to you buying a lotto ticket and winning a million (or more) dollars.

 

Again, this is for our more novice viewers no one else.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Thank god.  I hate inversions with a passion, unless there is a decent amount of snow on the ground.  I would take pretty much anything over a January 2013. 

I totally agree... I prefer we can get that ridge to get off us and at least get some snow in the mountains. Inversion suck!  They are only good for inflating and exaggerating prolonged cold stats at the surface. 2013 was painful! 

[Skagit Weather]

Down to 23 this morning, but I can't imagine staying below freezing today. It is already 28.

[seattleweatherguy]

 Just a little reminder of what we are seeing in la-la-land is noise at this point. Not saying don't watch it, just letting some of our less informed visitors (not the veterans) know that anything past 5 days or so, specially without total model consensus, is to be highly doubted at this point. Below is an example of what the models were showing on a consistent basis for about 4 to 5 days straight for what things would look like on January 3rd and beyond. AS we know this will not and did not happen. NOT even close... Although it is super pretty to look at and gets the heart racing a little.

 

That being said the hints of cold returning by the second or third week of January are not out of the realm of possibilities BUT at this point is the same as buying a lotto ticket hoping you will win a million (or more) dollars. 

 

Again, this is for our more novice viewers no one else.

 

Screen Shot 2014-12-18 at 4.26.54 PM.png

that would be epic cold

[ShawniganLake]

Euro weeklies do not provide much hope for January

[MossMan]

Euro weeklies do not provide much hope for January

I might be wrong, but it seems like the Euro weeklies change dramatically with each run.

[Skagit Weather]

Back during the record breaking high pressure of November 30/December 1, 2011, Cliff Mass did a blog about the abnormally high pressures. Seattle is now at 30.85" or 1044.5mb which beats the record from 2011 of 30.82"/1043.4mb. According to Cliff Mass's research, today would be the highest pressure ever recorded in not only KSEA history, but it would also beat the 1043.9mb record from downtown Seattle from December 3, 1921.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBFI&num=72&raw=0

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/12/history-is-made-highest-pressure-in-sea.html

 

Here is a graph of all-time high pressures from ksea from Cliff Mass's website.

 

2011 12 01 08 1043.4

2011 12 01 07 1043.3

2011 12 01 09 1043.2

2011 12 01 10 1043.2

2011 12 01 11 1043.1

1949 01 28 16 1043.0

1949 01 28 17 1043.0

1949 01 28 14 1042.7

2011 12 01 06 1042.6

1949 01 28 13 1042.3

1949 01 28 15 1042.3

1949 01 28 18 1042.3

1949 01 28 19 1042.3

1957 01 16 10 1042.3

1957 01 16 11 1042.3

[paulstorm]

I woke up trying to pop my ears and grinned ear to ear knowing what it was. Gotta love this stuff!!

[Phil]

Euro weeklies do not provide much hope for January

They're starting to catch on to the +PNA that should develop in mid or late January, but they're still not progressing the tropical forcing..this is where analoging can be put to good use.

[ShawniganLake]

They're starting to catch on to the +PNA that should develop in mid or late January, but they're still not progressing the tropical forcing..this is where analoging can be put to good use.

OH.  great news.  #sarcasm

 

I hope your late January forecast busts terribly. 

[westcoastexpat]

Only hit 24F here last night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OH. great news. #sarcasm

 

I hope your late January forecast busts terribly.

So far so good.

[luvssnow_spokane]

got down to 29 last night... strong east winds kept it warmer.

[Skagit Weather]

No subfreezing high for Seatac, already up to 33F.

[ShawniganLake]

got down to 29 last night... strong east winds kept it warmer.

Some spots in the Greater Victoria area, exposed to the NE winds, failed to record a freeze last night.  You could have done worse.

[stuffradio]

Any precipitation is not enjoyable unless it's frozen and in the form of flakes.

[FroYoBro]

Got down to 27 last night. Up to 30 now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 at PDX and SLE. SLE will probably top out in the 37-38 range I would think. 

 

The Dalles may have a shot at hitting freezing today. 

 

Looks like 850s only bottom out around -7C at SLE, probably less impressive than Dec 2010, Jan 2013, and Jan 08.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I still think this could evolve into a good fake cold snap.

[Guest Winterdog]

Had a low of 20F this morning.  Beautiful morning.  I see Arlington had an official low of 18F.

[MossMan]

I want to move here some day!

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/Cameras/default.aspx?cam=8098

[Front Ranger]

I almost can't recall the last time I saw a Euro run without a cutoff low in the SW US..that's a prolific bias if I do say so myself..

 

Yet, it's been verifying lately. If the other models are showing it, too, you can usually spot the times it's not a bias.

[MossMan]

Had a low of 20F this morning.  Beautiful morning.  I see Arlington had an official low of 18F.

I hit 19 just as I was leaving for work this morning. Tomorrow morning should be colder I would think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be surprised if highs tomorrow and New Year's are actually colder in the Willamette Valley as the inversion starts to take hold.

[Front Ranger]

I totally agree... I prefer we can get that ridge to get off us and at least get some snow in the mountains. Inversion suck!  They are only good for inflating and exaggerating prolonged cold stats at the surface. 2013 was painful! 

 

To be fair, inversions that follow a cold air mass tend to be significantly colder than ones that don't. So the initial cold air mass does make a difference in getting that shallow cold pool at the surface, as we saw in Jan 2013.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To be fair, inversions that follow a cold air mass tend to be significantly colder than ones that don't. So the initial cold air mass does make a difference in getting that shallow cold pool at the surface, as we saw in Jan 2013.

 

Exactly. Starting off with a true coolish airmass. 

 

I'm going to say that west of the Cascades this is not a legitimate arctic airmass, I'll call it continental.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 below last night at my cabin.

[Front Ranger]

Exactly. Starting off with a true coolish airmass. 

 

I'm going to say that west of the Cascades this is not a legitimate arctic airmass, I'll call it continental.

 

I agree. If most places end up with highs in the 34-38 range at the very end of December, that's not an Arctic outbreak for the West side.

 

But I think getting those low DPs in there is key to the following inversion being cold.

[TT-SEA]

This sucks...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123012!!chart.gif

[GHweatherChris]

This sucks...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123012!!chart.gif

YUCK

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agree. If most places end up with highs in the 34-38 range at the very end of December, that's not an Arctic outbreak for the West side.

 

But I think getting those low DPs in there is key to the following inversion being cold.

I agree. Looking at the new gfs the inversion could last into early next week.

[Front Ranger]

The Euro does show a little clipper system on Friday/Saturday that would probably break up the inversion. At least for WA.

[luvssnow_spokane]

YUCK

Looks like a typical winter weather pattern for here... We should be used to this now.  -- it will improve into a favorable pattern in a few months. 

[Guest Winterdog]

luvssnow_seattle, on 30 Dec 2014 - 11:09 AM, said:

Looks like a typical winter weather pattern for here... We should be used to this now.  -- it will improve into a favorable pattern in a few months. 

Yeah somewhere around the first week of July.

[luvssnow_spokane]

To be fair, inversions that follow a cold air mass tend to be significantly colder than ones that don't. So the initial cold air mass does make a difference in getting that shallow cold pool at the surface, as we saw in Jan 2013.

True. Just boring. It is what it is though - So not worth grumbling over it I guess.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah somewhere around the first week of July.

LOL!!!  So true!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sle all the way up to 34 at 11am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 7 months away from deadly marine pushes.