December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The lack of enthusiasm on this forum right now is enough to suck the energy right out of me. Still a realistic chance of another cold pattern by Jan 10 or so, but nobody wants to hear about it apparently. One thing you have to say is we have had no problem getting cold air masses in here the last two winters. The snow will come eventually.

[catnip]

Where's Rob? 00z is looking "different"

[GHweatherChris]

The lack of enthusiasm on this forum right now is enough to suck the energy right out of me. Still a realistic chance of another cold pattern by Jan 10 or so, but nobody wants to hear about it apparently. One thing you have to say is we have had no problem getting cold air masses in here the last two winters. The snow will come eventually.

There really is nothing in the models right now that would say we have a decent shot around the 10th other than if this happens or that happens. I am not saying it won't happen but the models are depressing when taking all of the major ones into account.

 

Plus, without snow again, this cold snap is really insignificant.   At least you had snow during the last one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-15 now at Denver

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The lack of enthusiasm on this forum right now is enough to suck the energy right out of me. Still a realistic chance of another cold pattern by Jan 10 or so, but nobody wants to hear about it apparently. One thing you have to say is we have had no problem getting cold air masses in here the last two winters. The snow will come eventually.

I'm hoping for a decent inversion to develop.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The lack of enthusiasm on this forum right now is enough to suck the energy right out of me. Still a realistic chance of another cold pattern by Jan 10 or so, but nobody wants to hear about it apparently. One thing you have to say is we have had no problem getting cold air masses in here the last two winters. The snow will come eventually.

it is fine to hear and read about it but honestly any real belief it will happen at this point is just a waste of energy specially when we could be outside enjoying this amazing cold snap. --- the 10 day away cold snap is only a fantasy and not nearly as exciting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-3 now at Redmond, or. They have a shot at their record of -8 set in 1968.

[GHweatherChris]

it is fine to hear and read about it but honestly any real belief it will happen at this point is just a waste of energy specially when we could be outside enjoying this amazing cold snap. --- the 10 day away cold snap is only a fantasy and not nearly as exciting.

LOL using "amazing" sarcastically is almost too much.

[GHweatherChris]

-3 now at Redmond, or. They have a shot at their record of -8 set in 1968.

Cool, but I do not live there.

[luvssnow_spokane]

-3 now at Redmond, or. They have a shot at their record of -8 set in 1968.

stop teasing!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

LOL using "amazing" sarcastically is almost too much.

you're right... It was a toss up between "amazing", "epic" and "historic" and for some reason amazing just felt right.

[GHweatherChris]

you're right... It was a toss up between "amazing", "epic" and "historic" and for some reason amazing just felt right.

I think at some point the night before last we had a small flurry, it looked like maybe 3 small flakes were frozen to our car, either that or it was bird !!! Not sure.

[MossMan]

Where's Rob? 00z is looking "different"

Different like how?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think at some point the night before last we had a small flurry, it looked like maybe 3 small flakes were frozen to our car, either that or it was bird s**t!!! Not sure.

lol!!! I am sure it was frozen bird s**t which is amazing!!

[GHweatherChris]

lol!!! I am sure it was frozen bird s**t which is amazing!!

Some might say Epic!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some might say Epic!!

lmao!! so true.

[GHweatherChris]

lmao!! so true.

Good thing it was on the hood or my ice scraper might have gotten nasty.

[Gradient Keeper]

Will frozen bird be more amazing than 00z runs tonight?

[GHweatherChris]

Will frozen bird s**t be more amazing than 00z runs tonight?

Most likely, the same alleged is now frozen again this evening.

[GHweatherChris]

IFred will not be happy about the convo this evening, but it is funny.

[Gradient Keeper]

lol

[MossMan]

So I take it the GFS is not so rockin once again?

[GHweatherChris]

So I take it the GFS is not so rockin once again?

Meh, its kinda chilly I suppose at times so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

26.9, dewpoint 9, E wind 15-25 G 30.... That's a modified blast if you ask me.

[westiztehbest]

Cold here thanks to the snowpack.  Hoping this weekend we'll get some more snowfall before a mini thaw.

[MossMan]

Cold here thanks to the snowpack. Hoping this weekend we'll get some more snowfall before a mini thaw.

How much did you get?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 00z was a stinker

[MossMan]

Wow the 00z was a stinker

How's the Canadian?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How's the Canadian?

Haven't seen it yet.

[Deweydog]

The lack of enthusiasm on this forum right now is enough to suck the energy right out of me. Still a realistic chance of another cold pattern by Jan 10 or so, but nobody wants to hear about it apparently. One thing you have to say is we have had no problem getting cold air masses in here the last two winters. The snow will come eventually.

#ourwinterssuck

 

-you

[Parksvillewx]

How's the Canadian?

 

I'm good. Sort of chilly here.

 

How are you guys?

[TT-SEA]

The current pattern sure is odd...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_000_0000.gif

 

 

 

Rest of the 00Z GEM is a mess.   Nothing good.

[TT-SEA]

I'm good. Sort of chilly here.

 

How are you guys?

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

The current pattern sure is odd...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_000_0000.gif

 

 

 

Rest of the 00Z GEM is a mess.   Nothing good.

Almost like the trough is trying to get away from us up there, mother nature is being a cruel *****.

 

Pretty sad when Vegas has a better snow forecast than what we saw.

[Phil]

SSW underway..should see a NAM response in 2-3 weeks:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/jqPfCj/640.jpg

[GHweatherChris]

SSW underway..should see a NAM response in 2-3 weeks:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/jqPfCj/640.jpg

Unless it will benefit us over here in the PNW, please do not post about it.

 

If it does, please explain how.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Didn't I mentioned in my 5:10 PM Analysis about the blocking ridge holding stronger than modeled? Seattle NWS hints at this.... I am quite intrigued. Should point out that a new monster low around 950mb is just off Kamchatka nearing the southwestern Bering Sea. That could keep the Alaskan block much stronger. Just throwing that out there. Everything hinges on this, and downstream energy east of the dateline.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...A 500 MB BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ALASKA DOWN TO A 583 DAM CENTER AT 43N 134W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1052 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE MAIN MASS OF COLD AIR MOVES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL US GREAT PLAINS. THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SAGS SE AND WEAKENS FURTHER.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WHILE ENTRAINING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM NORTH OF HAWAII...A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...MOVES INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...THEN DEAMPLIFIES THE FLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE BLOCK OVER ALASKA PINCHES OFF AND MOVES POLEWARD. *THIS WHOLE PROCESS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. *WHILE THE INCOMING 00Z GFS AND GFS PARALLEL SOLUTIONS STILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS SCRIPT...THEY DO IT A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENTLY IN THAT THEY -*TRY TO KEEP MORE BLOCKING GOING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.*- THE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT TAKES PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE BLOCK DAYS 1-2...AND TO THE LOW THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM NORTH OF HAWAII ALONG 150W TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH TIME. A SPLIT AND COMPLEX NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF KAMCHATKA TO NW OF WESTERN HAWAII ALSO APPEARS TO BE CAUSING SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES. MOST OF THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS is indicating a significant pressure crash over Australia with much higher SOI values than we've seen in months coming fairly soon. It indicates Darwin could drop below 1000mb which normally foreshadows good things for the NW. January may indeed end up being worthwhile for us. I really don't care what the models are showing for the NE Pacific / North America after day 6 or so right now. A lot of factors (especially in the tropics) seem to be lining up well for us.

 

I'm not making any firm predictions but the chances are good we will be seeing some nice model runs fairly soon. In the bigger picture I'm not as sure the last half of the winter will be a disaster as I had earlier thought.

[snow_wizard]

Unless it will benefit us over here in the PNW, please do not post about it.

 

If it does, please explain how.

Kind of rude.

 

The overall attitude on here right now kind of ticks me off quite frankly.

[richard mann]

.. Also kind of an inquiry, if looked at otherwise. 

 

 

And. With perhaps not forgetting that "attitude" can sometimes be difficult to pin down where considering text-written comments posted, you may not want to let it.