December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The GFS shows warming at 10 hPa and above but not below. Here are the 10 charts:

 

 

I think the ECMWF is closer to accurate w/ the wave-2 response..GFS is anemic w/ the SSW..Euro goes bananas and destroys the vortex completely..

[Phil]

OH. great news. #sarcasm

 

I hope your late January forecast busts terribly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think the ECMWF is closer to accurate w/ the wave-2 response..GFS is anemic w/ the SSW..Euro goes bananas and destroys the vortex completely..

Well, I know you have been talking about Vortex destruction for a while now. I assume that will increase our odds in helping us or is it just a guessing game if it will help us? Thoughts? AS of now, nothing is working in our favor. I feel we need a nuclear winter to actually get an event in here. 

[Phil]

Well, I know you have been talking about Vortex destruction for a while now. I assume that will increase our odds in helping us or is it just a guessing game if it will help us? Thoughts? AS of now, nothing is working in our favor. I feel we need a nuclear winter to actually get an event in here.

Would help prolong the -EPO, in the long run. What's happening up there now will affect the 2nd half of winter more than anything.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Would help prolong the -EPO, in the long run. What's happening up there now will affect the 2nd half of winter more than anything.

Okay thanks. For now it is a wait and see then and nothing for us (at minimum) for two or three weeks based on that and model output. *yawn*   --- Thanks sir!

[MossMan]

Yeah somewhere around the first week of July.

Nah I wouldn't say July, I'm thinking right about the last week of April.

 

What are the Euro Weeklies saying?

[BLI snowman]

This sucks...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123012!!chart.gif

 

Lame pattern for a lot of the country.

 

I think 2014-15 is making up for last winter's awesomeness. It's been a historically crappy snow year thus far for virtually everyone.

[WS Snow]

A brisk 35 degrees on Alki Beach (snooze)

[HighlandExperience]

Lame pattern for a lot of the country.

 

I think 2014-15 is making up for last winter's awesomeness. It's been a historically crappy snow year thus far for virtually everyone.

 

I suppose it makes me feel better when I see most of the nation getting no snow. Nothing worse than seeing Dallas or New Orleans get hammered with snow.

[MossMan]

I do think we might see what we saw in November with that second arctic intrusion that seemed to come out of nowhere. Didn't the models not pick up on it until like 7 or 8 days out? Or even less?

 

I would like to order up a Jan 2012 or a Jan 1996, I won't get greedy and mention a Jan 1950.

[Gradient Keeper]

Low temp 27.1, currently 32.7 dewpoint 7. E wind 15-20mph. Peak gust 40.6 mph.

 

PDX hit 30.83 in @ 10:53 AM

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles 850mb Temps
Far better than I expected considering the slew of icky looking operational runs this morning. Ensemble mean dips below 0c January 9th slowly dropping to -3 around the 14th(La-la land). The same cluster of members -5c or colder showing up again. Somewhat chilly, but that could simply imply we're under a cold maritime onshore air mass and not due to offshore blocking and any north-northeast flow. Seattle is a bit colder.

 

 

[MossMan]

Up to 30 degrees here at work.

[Snowman5678]

Haha, I have a clog in my rain gauge on the roof and I havent been able to get up there and unclog it. Anyway when the station freezes then unfreezes the clogged water starts pouring through the gauge. Currently I have .20" in the gauge with a .36" rainfall rate. It's raining cats and dogs too according to my station.  

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS Ensembles 850mb Temps

Far better than I expected considering the slew of icky looking operational runs this morning. Ensemble mean dips below 0c January 9th slowly dropping to -3 around the 14th(La-la land). The same cluster of members -5c or colder showing up again. Somewhat chilly, but that could simply imply we're under a cold maritime onshore air mass and not due to offshore blocking and any north-northeast flow. Seattle is a bit colder.

 

MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

That one rogue run is like 15C colder than every other run and delivers a double shot of Arctic next week. Go rogue!

[WS Snow]

DJ:

 

We are relying on your optimism to turn things cold/snowy...

[luvssnow_spokane]

That one rogue run is like 15C colder than every other run and delivers a double shot of Arctic next week. Go rogue!

I saw that too and was thinking the same thing. lol!

[Front Ranger]

This sucks...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123012!!chart.gif

 

No ensemble support for this - meaning the big eastern Aleutian low.

 

 

 

 

As has been the case a lot lately, the models are all over the place past day 6, once this blocking ridge heads north/dissipates. The main themes they agree on are: +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO. In other words, some sort of blocking continuing around Alaska, and not much blocking on the Greenland side of the continent.

[MossMan]

Well, I know you have been talking about Vortex destruction for a while now. I assume that will increase our odds in helping us or is it just a guessing game if it will help us? Thoughts? AS of now, nothing is working in our favor. I feel we need a nuclear winter to actually get an event in here. 

 

Or a cataclysmic volcanic eruption? Or a huge meteor striking the earth? Nah, we would still be in the warm sector of things.

[TT-SEA]

Scenic day here:

 

http://s1.postimg.org/5j0p6h7gf/webcamimage.jpg

[MossMan]

No ensemble support for this - meaning the big eastern Aleutian low.

 

12zeuroens.png

 

 

As has been the case a lot lately, the models are all over the place past day 6, once this blocking ridge heads north/dissipates. The main themes they agree on are: +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO. In other words, some sort of blocking continuing around Alaska, and not much blocking on the Greenland side of the continent.

What about the PNA?

[richard mann]

They're starting to catch on to the +PNA that should develop in mid or late January, but they're still not progressing the tropical forcing..this is where analoging can be put to good use.

 

First, this more immediately following here is rhetorical. (Meaning answer it or don't.) 

 

.. Regarding what you've "suggested" here above more initially, .. What tells you this. ?

 

Second, .. With the knowledge that you apparently posses making it possible for you to suggest what you have here more broadly,  .. perhaps you could, with perhaps pointing to your some of your reasoning otherwise, drop up a few "analog" possibilities working to correlate with what you've suggested otherwise.  (Also more rhetorical.)

[FroYoBro]

PDX at 34. I have stalled at 33 here. Pretty respectable. 

[richard mann]

Would help prolong the -EPO, in the long run. What's happening up there now will affect the 2nd half of winter more than anything.

 

[You might want to] Learn this phrase, .. "is apt to". .. [Perhaps even] Also, "in" or "per" "my view".

 

— This as "omniscience" in and where considering the idea of weather discussion certainly, .. can be, somewhat "off-putting". 

[Timmy]

Only got up to 27 at my place today, coldest day by far

[Front Ranger]

What about the PNA?

 

Back and forth, but more -PNA.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

 Heart breaking. So close yet so far. Whyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
  245 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014
   
  .LONG TERM...AFTER A WEAK FRONT BREAKS UP OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY 
  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. A STRONG WARM FRONT THEN 
  ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HUNG UP OVER B.C. 
  THERE MIGHT BE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW UP IN B.C...HOWEVER OVER WRN 
  WA THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PRETTY EMPHATIC THAT A 
  RATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WRN WA SUN AND MON.
 

[luvssnow_spokane]

 Heart breaking. So close yet so far. Whyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

  245 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014

   

  .LONG TERM...AFTER A WEAK FRONT BREAKS UP OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY 

  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. A STRONG WARM FRONT THEN 

  ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HUNG UP OVER B.C. 

  THERE MIGHT BE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW UP IN B.C...HOWEVER OVER WRN 

  WA THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PRETTY EMPHATIC THAT A 

  RATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WRN WA SUN AND MON.

 

It is the Canadian Force field!  Actually, it is amazing how this stuff often stops right at the border nearly 80% of the time. 

[MossMan]

It is the Canadian Force field!  Actually, it is amazing how this stuff often stops right at the border nearly 80% of the time. 

I know, its almost comical how that happens. The arctic air travels so freaking far south, but can't simply go another 100 or so miles down.

[HighlandExperience]

 Heart breaking. So close yet so far. Whyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

  245 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2014

   

  .LONG TERM...AFTER A WEAK FRONT BREAKS UP OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY 

  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE DRY. A STRONG WARM FRONT THEN 

  ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HUNG UP OVER B.C. 

  THERE MIGHT BE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW UP IN B.C...HOWEVER OVER WRN 

  WA THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PRETTY EMPHATIC THAT A 

  RATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WRN WA SUN AND MON.

 

 

Heavy snow where in BC? Just North of Vancouver.

 

It is all mountains just north of there. If Vancouver B.C. gets slammed I will be annoyed.

[HighlandExperience]

At Hour 120

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ:

 

We are relying on your optimism to turn things cold/snowy...

I'll do the best I can, of course careful not to cross that line into wishcasting....

[Gradient Keeper]

No ensemble support for this - meaning the big eastern Aleutian low.

 

12zeuroens.png

 

 

As has been the case a lot lately, the models are all over the place past day 6, once this blocking ridge heads north/dissipates. The main themes they agree on are: +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO. In other words, some sort of blocking continuing around Alaska, and not much blocking on the Greenland side of the continent.

Interesting....

[HighlandExperience]

I'll do the best I can, of course careful not to cross that line into wishcasting....

 

WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HUNG UP OVER OLYMPIA THERE MIGHT BE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW UP IN WA.. HOWEVER OVER WRN OR THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PRETTY EMPHATIC THAT ARATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WRN OR SUN AND MON.

 

 

[MossMan]

WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HUNG UP OVER OLYMPIA THERE MIGHT BE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW UP IN WA.. HOWEVER OVER WRN OR THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND PRETTY EMPHATIC THAT ARATHER MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WRN OR SUN AND MON.

 

 

That would be like a Nov 2006 redux for me! Oh how I wish

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'll do the best I can, of course careful not to cross that line into wishcasting....

Thank god!   -- 

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM 1 hours 20 minutes
00z GFS 3 hours
00z GEM 4 hours 20 minutes
00z ECMWF 5 hours 30 minutes
Probably another night of poor to atrocious model runs, but in reading some of the AFD's about discrepancies amongst the models on when the ridge breaks down, along with the Analog Composite and Ensemble 500mb Anomalies, and what I see on IR Loop, I seem to think there is a possibility of our offshore ridge/block holding stronger than what is currently modeled. I don't want to jump ahead of myself(Which would be freaking weird if you could in fact jump in front of yourself) but anyways, I will give the slightest optimism of 5% chance that models improve tonight based upon everything I've mentioned.

[MossMan]

At Hour 120

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

It is just amazing how the blue stops right at the border.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z NAM 1 hours 20 minutes

00z GFS 3 hours

00z GEM 4 hours 20 minutes

00z ECMWF 5 hours 30 minutes

Probably another night of poor to atrocious model runs, but in reading some of the AFD's about discrepancies amongst the models on when the ridge breaks down, along with the Analog Composite and Ensemble 500mb Anomalies, and what I see on IR Loop, I seem to think there is a possibility of our offshore ridge/block holding stronger than what is currently modeled. I don't want to jump ahead of myself(Which would be freaking weird if you could in fact jump in front of yourself) but anyways, I will give the slightest optimism of 5% chance that models improve tonight based upon everything I've mentioned.

I am going to go out on the limb... 7% chance... Ready -- set -- go! 

[HighlandExperience]

It is just amazing how the blue stops right at the border.

 

Mostly just mountains. The resolution is not all that great.

 

P.S. Right now I would pay for a nice overruning event for a change. It seems like it has been an eternity since we have had a legit over running snow.