December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

So... it was about 8 or 9 days ago that I pointed to the ECMWF showing all the cold air on the other side of the North America and not even close to the PNW just after New Years.

 

Turns out that was right on target.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!48!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123000!!chart.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Is this good?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

Looks like the real cold air is hung up in Central BC.  Probably would result in lowland rain and lowering snow levels in the Mountains.  There would be a few places that could get lucky with that, but not likely the I-5 corridor.

[HighlandExperience]

Euro looks somewhat promising tonight, surprised about the lack of posts about it, must be the aftermath of the recent flop for this weekend.

Hard to get your hopes up.

[Front Ranger]

The 0z GFS ensembles continued to show some promise in the extended.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble gets pretty interesting a bit down the road. Not bad at all.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS ensembles continued to show some promise in the extended.

 

 

0zensembles.png

I'm intrigued by the increasing signal for above normal heights in the Eastern US. This MJO moving so slowly has really increased our window of opportunity.

[snow_wizard]

The numbers are finally getting more impressive tonight. BLI has dropped to 28 with wind, here it's 30 with wind, and Everett has dropped to 31 with a breeze. I usually consider it Arctic if it's below 30 with very low dp and wind.

[snow_wizard]

6 members out of 20 drop to -10 or lower on the GFS ensemble.  This ain't over yet folks!

 

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks somewhat promising tonight, surprised about the lack of posts about it, must be the aftermath of the recent flop for this weekend.

850mb temps for hr216.  That would equate to pretty high snow levels, even warmer than I would have thought originally.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123000/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

 

6 members out of 20 drop to -10 or lower on the GFS ensemble.  This ain't over yet folks!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yep. I was just looking at these about to post the same. Another GFS run and another run showing a cold shot in the long range. Ensemble mean dips to -3 and a nice cluster of members down to -5c by January 8th-9th, and even a bit colder afterwards. I know it's la-la land, but I find it a bit interesting and intriguing that this continues to show up on 4-5(or more) consecutive GFS runs.

[MikeInEverett]

Yep. I was just looking at these about to post the same. Another GFS run and another run showing a cold shot in the long range. Ensemble mean dips to -3 and a nice cluster of members down to -5c by January 8th-9th, and even a bit colder afterwards. I know it's la-la land, but I find it a bit interesting and intriguing that this continues to show up on 4-5(or more) consecutive GFS runs.

Lol the yellow one at -20

[snow_wizard]

Well what have we here?

 

This reminds me of how the ensemble looked before the late Nov event before the operational models really picked up on it.  Something is emerging here.

 

[MikeInEverett]

If we could get something like this...

Anyone remember how exciting the models looked in late November 2013 for early December 2013? The way we got no snow for that still makes me mad, this is the analog composite from Nov 24th for December 5th 2013.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Is this good?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

I'd like to see that trough drop further south so more of CA can get in some beneficial rain and snow. Looks good for Norcal as is, though. It is a lot better than a huge ridge bumping up against the West Coast from border to border!

[MossMan]

Currently 22 degrees here.

[Prairiedog]

Winds came up about noon yesterday and died back down by about 3pm.  It has been calm ever since.  Down to 25f.  Wind never became a factor at least at my location. 

Headed to Winthrop this am.  Looking forward to the drive.  7-8 hours.  9f there this am.  Roads should be decent overall. 

[Tyler Mode]

28 here this morning.  Peak wind of 23 mph.  Pressure an astonishing 30.77" and still rising.  

I did reach 30.78" on December 1st, 2011 though...we'll see if I can break that today...

[Tyler Mode]

And just as I type that the wind goes completely calm.  Quickly down to 25 degrees.

 

28 here this morning.  Peak wind of 23 mph.  Pressure an astonishing 30.77" and still rising.  

I did reach 30.78" on December 1st, 2011 though...we'll see if I can break that today...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows tomorrow morning should be much more impressive as gradients relax.

[Phil]

So... it was about 8 or 9 days ago that I pointed to the ECMWF showing all the cold air on the other side of the North America and not even close to the PNW just after New Years.

 

Turns out that was right on target.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!48!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014123000!!chart.gif

Nothing more than a little luck.

[Phil]

I almost can't recall the last time I saw a Euro run without a cutoff low in the SW US..that's a prolific bias if I do say so myself..

[Tyler Mode]

Seattle 30.84"

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBFI&num=72&raw=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think mid-30s are a good bet today in the Willamette Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few upper 30s. 

 

On the other hand looking at the dp's I think that there could be widespread lows in the teens tonight if gradients relax. I also don't think the lower levels will moderate as quickly as the NWS is forecasting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given the outflow PDX may stay in the 33-34 range today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm on the road today so idk what it hit at my house this morning. Looks like silver falls hit 21, so probably about 18 or so at my place.

[MossMan]

Down to 19!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silverton mesonet hit 19. The only teens I found in the valley this am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z running!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stats for November at Silver Falls have been updated. Overall a very wet month 13.95" of rain, about 4" above normal. 

 

3 straight highs of 33 from the 13-15, a low of 20 on the 15th.

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2014&month=11&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jees I was gone for a few days and the models went to crap.

[Snowman5678]

21 here this morning. 

[MossMan]

Jees I was gone for a few days and the models went to crap.

Yes they did, but signals still look good for the second to third week of January in my opinion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem running a +5.8 departure for the month still...Yikes. Well now we've gotten the December torch we were due for out of the way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really don't think that the lowest levels will mix out before Sunday at the earliest. The low temps should start creeping up as DP's rise, but I see nothing to break up the Columbia Basin cold pool or what should be a good Willamette Valley inversion.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive dps 5 at pdx 10 at sle.

[Abbotsford_wx]

24.6F here this morning. Wind chill 14F.

 

Barometer at 1046.8 hPa, so I've already broken my 2011 record highest pressure.

[antipex]

Given the outflow PDX may stay in the 33-34 range today.

I agree. This isn't the most impressive cold air mass but it's still significant since PDX bottomed out in the upper 20s with east wind blowing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agree. This isn't the most impressive cold air mass but it's still significant since PDX bottomed out in the upper 20s with east wind blowing.

I think if we can indeed transition to a prolonged inversion it will compare with Jan 2013, Dec /Jan 2010-11, and maybe Jan 08.

[MossMan]

12z running!

How's it looking? Jan 2012 redux yet?

[ShawniganLake]

How's it looking? Jan 2012 redux yet?

Out to day 8, not even close.