Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z GFS is same as 6z, just faster. Started out west/stronger though. 2-4 inches for Chicago/Milwaukee Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 too fastbut if it slows down a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_11.png Parallel GFS drops it 16 MB in 12 hours. Pretty impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 but if it slows down a little. If it slows down, it's likely due to rapid deepening in which case it will pass too close or west of Chicago to dump snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_asnow_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122212/gfsp_asnow_us_11.png It would be nice for it to slow down a touch, as the heaviest precip comes through during the day on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I still say 3-4 inches is the ceiling for this event IMO. Marginal temps and warm grounds will really limit accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Must be some bad thermo's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Nice to see some consistency finally. Looking at wind profiles, I don't think the lake temperatures will cut back on snow that much. Largely lake temps are running 35-40° right now. At the time of the most intense part of the storm winds flip offshore. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I really don't think the lake will be a big factor. It's not like the water temps are near 50°. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's the 850 mb temps that need to be watched more closely. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 GGEM is way, way NW. Looks a lot like the RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122212/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122212_048.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wut. Here are the next 3 frames: 49 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122212/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122212_049.png 50 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122212/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122212_050.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well here is hoping the hi res win out...going with a 10% chance of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I guess for some stupid reason the precip map through first 48 hours was the RGEM. GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122212/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122212_052.png http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122212/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122212_056.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 This storm is really creating havoc for everyone on this forum. Could be rain, could be snow, could be nada. Temps will definitely be an issue for whoever gets this storm but as it looks now its not a huge storm by any means but being on Christmas Eve and being the first accumulating event this month, it could be a nightmare for travelers. The devil is in the details which hopefully be ironed out by Wednesday's 0z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks wet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 48hrs away and the models still having problems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Soundings from the GFS look good in terms of no mid level warm layer. Just need to get good snowfall rates to overcome any temperatures above freezing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 ALL the hi-res runs have a western solution, the 4km NAM is great for much of this forum... Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Does not even include to whole storm! Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 look's like kankakee county on a sweet spot.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122212/gfs_asnow_ncus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 ALL the hi-res runs have a western solution, the 4km NAM is great for much of this forum...Looks like most of the models are trending towards a western solution BUT since the models have changed daily cannot buy into it 100% just yet. Guessing some sampling has been ingested into the 12z modeling which is a good sign moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like most of the models are trending towards a western solution BUT since the models have changed daily cannot buy into it 100% just yet. Guessing some sampling has been ingested into the 12z modeling which is a good sign moving forward. 0z runs tonight we should have a pretty good idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Looks like lots of snow for Chicago! Getting excited! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 UKIE still weaker/east http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 0z runs tonight we should have a pretty good idea. You would hope but as far as snowfall goes I believe it will come down to a nowcasting event based on temp profiles. Hoping dynamic cooling/heavy precip will overcome the somewhat warm layer. I have seen this happen many times so have a good feeling about this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 euro is west and a bit stronger compared to previous runs 995 in western KY at hr 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 euro is west and a bit stronger compared to previous runs 995 in western KY at hr 48Yup, definitely going to be in line with the GFS. The defo band looks nice so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 At least a couple mb stronger which should be a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 euro looking good for chicago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 12z Euro with a 990mb near Indy @ 54 HR...def west and stronger...showing a nice healthy defo band forming near STL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 I have done my own case study with this system and believe it or not, the GFS Par has been the only model (GFS at times) that has had a west ward trend in the track with this system. Now to see the Euro trend west, maybe the gov't updates towards the GFS Par is giving that model some boost. 12z Euro...with a 987mb near South Bend, IN... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 For over a week out, both the Euro Ensembles did quite well sniffing out this storm system and gave us a general idea of where this storm would form. With only 2 days away from the event, its evident that a lower lakes cutter was the right idea. It's too bad this storm wont have the amount of cold air to establish a huge snowstorm and take on a neg tilt. Whoever gets snow on Christmas Eve, consider yourself lucky to thread this needle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Models seem to be getting a little wetter with each run....good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 ill take the arw for the northern wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Skillings' RPM at noon had a ton of moisture with rain changing to snow around 5:00pm on Wednesday. Pretty good defo band just not a lot on the snow totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Anything up this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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