January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

12z ECMWF laughs at U.S. blowtorch proponents. Anyone who understands wave dynamics should know that was not going to happen, outside maybe a 3 day transitional period.

 

Did anyone here predict a U.S. blowtorch? I haven't seen it.

[TT-SEA]

To give this winter a grade a rank just proves you dont like winter weather. Winter around here is time for shitty weather. I miss the rain and 38 degrees days because I know its at least snowing In the mountains. If it were up to tim he would have the sun out 365 a year with no wind rain or a cloud for 10000 miles.

 

Wow... a little testy tonight.   

 

I never said... just that I like dry breaks and sunshine at times in the winter.     It would be nice if the storms were colder... but I enjoy the breaks and it makes it much more tolerable overall.   

 

It rains on 68% of the days normally out here from Nov-Mar so there is usually dry weather 1/3rd of the time which is appreciable... even here in the Cascade foothills.    Offshore flow and sunshine are a very normal part of winter.  

 

2012-13 had rain on more than 90% of the days... that was extreme for this location due to a notable lack of offshore flow.    It was miserable.    Luckily that is not normal.

[Front Ranger]

Time for a little informative debate on wave spacing and calling out others' busts without provocation.

 

I have to..

 

Front Ranger, on 03 Jan 2015 - 3:30 PM, said:

I really don't see anything pointing towards cold for anyone after next week's cold wave for the East.

In a 3-wave flow regime under a broad HC, you're not going to get a nationwide torch.

 

 

What exactly are you calling a bust? I said I "didn't see anything pointing towards cold after next week's cold wave". The following week was Jan 4-10. Since the 10th, it really hasn't been cold...near normal for most of the eastern 2/3, warm for the western 1/3.

 

I never called for nationwide torch, that was something you just made up. I said it didn't look cold for the U.S. this period (following the 10th). It hasn't been. And it looks like a generally normal to mild pattern for the U.S. for the next 7 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow... a little testy tonight.

 

I never said... just that I like dry breaks and sunshine at times in the winter. It would be nice if the storms were colder... but I enjoy the breaks and it makes it much more tolerable overall. I guess I am just not looking forward to what we have in store in april and may.

 

It rains on 68% of the days normally out here from Nov-Mar so there is usually dry weather 1/3rd of the time which is appreciable... even here in the Cascade foothills. Offshore flow and sunshine are a very normal part of winter.

 

2012-13 had rain on more than 90% of the days... that was extreme for this location due to a notable lack of offshore flow. It was miserable. Luckily that is not normal.

[Deweydog]

Down to 33 here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I guess I am just not looking forward to what's coming In april and may.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And Tim we all know you and the ecmwf are working together.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Down to 33 here.

Crazy.

[HighlandExperience]

To give this winter a grade a rank just proves you dont like winter weather. Winter around here is time for shitty weather. I miss the rain and 38 degrees days because I know its at least snowing In the mountains. If it were up to tim he would have the sun out 365 a year with no wind rain or a cloud for 10000 miles.

 

I agree with you. I much prefer cold rain with copious amounts of mountain snow, than what we have been going through recently. All of this ridging with occasional atmospheric rivers gets old. 

 

If I wanted lots of sunshine and dry weather I would move to San Diego. 

[Phil]

What exactly are you calling a bust? I said I "didn't see anything pointing towards cold after next week's cold wave". The following week was Jan 4-10. Since the 10th, it really hasn't been cold...near normal for most of the eastern 2/3, warm for the western 1/3.

 

I never called for nationwide torch, that was something you just made up. I said it didn't look cold for the U.S. this period (following the 10th). It hasn't been. And it looks like a generally normal to mild pattern for the U.S. for the next 7 days.

Uh, no. Not only have temps in the East averaged below normal since the 10th, but they're progged to cool even further over the next week. You forecasted a "lack of cold for just about everyone". You verified that in later posts, as well.

[Front Ranger]

You predicted warm anomalies for virtually the entire lower-48 following last week's Arctic blast, as you clearly stated. A bust like that from only 10 days out suggests a lack of physical understanding, rather than the typical difficulty associated with emergent phenomenon in a closed system.

 

You quoted me yourself. Not only did I not call for a nation-wide blowtorch, I didn't even call for warm anomalies. I simply said there was nothing pointing towards cold following last week's Arctic blast. The discussion was about the pattern developing towards mid-month.

 

If I wanted to call for a blowtorch, I'd call for blowtorch. When the Jan 10-20 period is done, it sure looks like the anomalies will be normal to mild across the U.S. Not a blowtorch, but certainly not cold either.

[TT-SEA]

I guess I am just not looking forward to what's coming In april and may.

 

 

I think February and March will be active and stormy with copious mountain snow.    Through the first week of April and then spring.

[Front Ranger]

Do you actually look at data? Or do you just talk out of your a**?

 

Here's the numbers from the last few days..looks plenty cold to me. ESRL lags by a few days, so it's only out to the 11th:

 

 

Yeah...so since the 10th would be the 11th-13th, not the 9th-11th.

 

Like I said, let's look at mid month (the period we were originally discussing) on the 20th. You're getting ahead of yourself here in your eagerness to find fault with what I said. Just chill.

[Front Ranger]

I think February and March will be active and stormy with copious mountain snow.    Through the first week of April and then spring.

 

Hey-o. Tim's aboard the February train!

 

It's gonna make January look like the weak, pathetic, lackluster, bastard month it has become.

[Phil]

Here's the full exchange..I'll let the board be the judge:

 

Man, the mid/long range ensembles for all models are butt ugly for the whole country right now. Strong signal for a big Aleutian/west AK low emerging, and likely to persist through 1/15. Big +AO/+EPO/+NAO as well.

 

Hopefully the second half of the month resets with something better.

 

Typical Niño look actually, (+PNA, variable AO). If this verifies, troughing would be confined to the East coast.

 

 

 

But all models are pointing to a predominantly +AO/+NAO pattern through the 15th, with rising EPO.

 

I really don't see anything pointing towards cold for anyone after next week's cold wave for the East.

 

I suspect the return of a +PNA and overall drop in the AO will lead to periodic/recurring troughing in the east.

What US blowtorch? 18z GFS/GEFS 0-16 day means are below avg for most of the U.S.

Doesn't it make more sense to look at the overall pattern signals and long range ensembles than raw 18z GFS output through 384 hours? Plus, some of that is due to the cold over the next 6 days for the eastern 2/3. After that, the pattern looks to head warmer.

 

This is what the euro ensembles show for hour 240. Not a cold pattern.

 

 

 

You're looking at a single snapshot in time. Ensemble means will always look washed out in the LR when you have episodic/recurring troughing in a zonal regime.

 

 

The main theme to me past day 7 seems to be: +PNA/neutral EPO/+AO/+NAO. To me, that could result in anything from slightly below normal to torch in the east. But it's just not a cold pattern. You'd at least need -EPO to get true cold.

 

What is "true cold"? It looks like a colder than average pattern over the eastern 1/3 of the country, to me, at its worst. Typical Niño regimen over the NPAC as low-frequency forcing becomes dominant under a low W/H intensity ratio (Niño-esque).

I get that misery loves company, but what's being progged for the 2nd half of January is far from a coast to coast torch.

[Front Ranger]

Lol..what does "a lack of cold air for just about everyone" mean, then? You were clearly expecting warmer than average anomalies to dominate the US. I have everything you said saved.

 

Hilarious that you have the nerve to call me out on a multi-month forecast, while utterly failing inside 10 days, yourself. Then you p*** out when confronted..priceless.

 

Then why did I repeatedly point out to you that I wasn't calling for a blowtorch, I just didn't see the cold pattern for this period that you did? I assume you have those quotes saved as well.

 

I'll be happy to look at the Jan 10-20 anomalies a week from now. I give honest assessments - I acknowledged your successes with your LR forecast. I also have pointed out some things you missed on recently. No need to get all bitter about it.

 

You're clearly in a bad mood and out for a fight tonight. Not gonna play. Have a good night.

[snow_wizard]

 

You're clearly in a bad mood and out for a fight tonight. Not gonna play. Have a good night.

 

I think a good number of people on here are in a bad mood tonight thanks to another worthless January in the NW.  I'm really getting to where I just don't care anymore.  I'm just trying to figure out how to get out of here as soon as I can.  I truly wish I had moved out of here a long time ago when it would have been much easier.

 

I'm actually not all that sure we are going to see anything much better through the remainder of the winter.

[HighlandExperience]

Balance is good... breaks are nice even if the storms are colder and snowier for the mountains.     You guys are all or nothing... rarely does it rain and snow for weeks and weeks even around here.   

 

I agree balance is good. I am not asking for weeks of snow in the lowlands. I am asking for weeks of snow in the mountains. Not that unusual by this time of year. We've only had a few decent storms up there since winter has started. 

 

Hope you are right about Feb/March.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Balance is good... breaks are nice even if the storms are colder and snowier for the mountains.     You guys are all or nothing... rarely does it rain and snow for weeks and weeks even around here.   

 

Well it's the opposite for your location where stronger onshore flow can lead to perpetual cloudiness but in many lowland locations stormier weather is way less gloomy than being stuck in the doldrums of weak upper level offshore flow (constant fog/stratus vs heavier precip with sunny breaks between systems). Not to mention it brings cleaner air. There's one reason to look forward to February and the end of the prime inversion season.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble is a mess tonight.  The nice retrogression signal that had been showing up is gone now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ensemble is a mess tonight.  The nice retrogression signal that had been showing up is gone now.

 

Yep, the 0Z ECMWF looks pretty terrible tonight, we're back to the constant theme of ridging wanting to pop up and amplify against the coast, whereas previously it was looking a lot more suppressed in the upcoming pattern allowing higher pressure to slip back toward the west side of the Aleutian low.

[epiceast]

00z is an atrocity

[snow_wizard]

Yep, the 0Z ECMWF looks pretty terrible tonight, we're back to the constant theme of ridging wanting to pop up and amplify against the coast, whereas previously it was looking a lot more suppressed in the upcoming pattern allowing higher pressure to slip back toward the west side of the Aleutian low.

 

I'm pretty much giving up on it.  This is just going to be a turd like 1952-53 or 1980-81.

[Phil]

But again...the reasons you gave for the "coast to coast" cold did not materialize. You heavily emphasized the -AO/-NAO...didn't happen. It was all -EPO driven.

If you don't know what you're talking about, it's probably best to read more, and post less.

 

When you have duel breakers, an inadequate synchronization will inevitably weaken any wave-2 attempt (one break will dissipate while the other dominates..laws of streamflow). This is a secondary, wave-wave interaction. In our case, the NPAC breaker was the one that dominated as a result of the timing mismatch..it still dropped the NAM and forced the majority of the US into the deep freeze. So, not a bust..just a bit off-kilter.

 

Next winter, I'd like to see you put out a forecast in the same way I do. I'll respect you a lot more if you'd walk your talk..

[ShawniganLake]

Well it's the opposite for your location where stronger onshore flow can lead to perpetual cloudiness but in many lowland locations stormier weather is way less gloomy than being stuck in the doldrums of weak upper level offshore flow (constant fog/stratus vs heavier precip with sunny breaks between systems). Not to mention it brings cleaner air. There's one reason to look forward to February and the end of the prime inversion season.

The last week or so up here has been one of the most miserable weeks I can ever remember.  Constant low clouds, fog, drizzle.  I had a three day stretch with a min of 41F and a max of 44F.  One day was 43/42.  Typically with stronger winter inversion type patterns we end up being above the fog and gunk in Shawnigan Lake.  I would prefer it if it had of just been pounding sideways rain for the last week.  Would have been more enjoyable. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing how the mid latitude weather pattern is totally ignoring the MJO right now.  No matter where the wave is the pattern remains unfavorable for the NW.

[snow_wizard]

If you don't know what you're talking about, it's probably best to just shut up.

 

When you have duel breakers, an inadequate synchronization will inevitably weaken any wave-2 attempt (one break will dissipate while the other dominates). This is a secondary, wave-wave interaction. In our case, the NPAC breaker was the one that dominated as a result of the timing mismatch..it still dropped the NAM and forced the majority of the US into the deep freeze.

 

Next winter, I'd like to see you put out a forecast in the same way I do. I'll respect you a lot more if you'd walk your talk..

 

I think all anyone has to do is predict the NW will get fooked up the a$$ and they will probably be right.  Really no mystery to it.

[Phil]

Pretty amazing how the mid latitude weather pattern is totally ignoring the MJO right now. No matter where the wave is the pattern remains unfavorable for the NW.

I'd argue otherwise..it's the response to the MJO that is unique from year to year. Under a low-frequency +AAM/+HC/-QBO state, the (relatively) higher-frequency MJO forcing will evoke a different large scale response than, say, a -AAM/+QBO background.

 

Some years, the MJO correlations will work better than others. This year, those correlations are almost worthless..

[Deweydog]

I think all anyone has to do is predict the NW will get fooked up the a$$ and they will probably be right. Really no mystery to it.

Oh Jim...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm pretty much giving up on it.  This is just going to be a turd this winter like 1952-53 or 1980-81.

 

I still wouldn't necessarily rule out something end of month, however, it does really feel like we need something major to shake this pattern of consistent West Coast ridging. I'm hoping the Aleutian low sets up a bit further east than currently forecast in the 5-10 range and the ridging remains suppressed until it enters a probable weakening phase and we move into -PNA. That's what I'll be watching for anyway, otherwise the general index trend shows potential. +PNA rarely holds longer than 20~25 days and we've already seen over 10 days of it.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/4panel_zps9ccc483b.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The last week or so up here has been one of the most miserable weeks I can ever remember.  Constant low clouds, fog, drizzle.  I had a three day stretch with a min of 41F and a max of 44F.  One day was 43/42.  Typically with stronger winter inversion type patterns we end up being above the fog and gunk in Shawnigan Lake.  I would prefer it if it had of just been pounding sideways rain for the last week.  Would have been more enjoyable. 

 

The inversion was pretty deep near the inner coast, downsloping was probably a big factor in places further east remaining sunny. At this time of year inversions can grow pretty deep near the inner coast; I'd imagine your area is usually above the inversion in October/early November and less so December/January. Part of the reason your area was so gloomy could also be that we exited the inversion some time around last Thursday but the lower atmosphere has remained super moist with little in the way of wind to clear things out.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty amazing how the mid latitude weather pattern is totally ignoring the MJO right now.  No matter where the wave is the pattern remains unfavorable for the NW.

 

Yeah... I think it's going to take a strong ENSO event to kick the a** of the pattern we've seen the last two years of ridging constantly developing along the West Coast. A strong El Nino would be a good thing at this point, as it would at least provide some dutiful forcing to end the pattern rut.

 

California's drought looks terrible. It's shaping up to be another near record warm January down there and their mountain snowpack is abysmal. Something's gotta give, but it could be another year or so.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah... I think it's going to take a strong ENSO event to kick the a** of the pattern we've seen the last two years of ridging constantly developing along the West Coast. A strong El Nino would be a good thing at this point, as it would at least provide some dutiful forcing to end the pattern rut.

 

California's drought looks terrible. It's shaping up to be another near record warm January down there and their mountain snowpack is abysmal. Something's gotta give, but it could be another year or so.

 

I'm really concerned about a big El Nino next winter since this one fizzled.  I kind of wish it had just gotten it out of its system.  Really frustrating times for us.

[Phil]

Yeah... I think it's going to take a strong ENSO event to kick the a** of the pattern we've seen the last two years of ridging constantly developing along the West Coast. A strong El Nino would be a good thing at this point, as it would at least provide some dutiful forcing to end the pattern rut.

The western ridging is mainly a result of solar forcing on the Hadley Cells, and has nothing to do with ENSO. Same thing happened from 1999-2003, during the last solar max. A big Niño will actually prolong your suffering.

 

Active Sun warms the top of the cells/ascending branches..thermal wind laws..you get broad/poleward biased Hadley Cells and a variable eddy flux..affects mass transport within/beyond the Ferrel domain.

 

It's going to take time before the PNW can score a big winter outside a solar minimum. Years like 2008-09 & 2010-11 will look tropical compared to winters under a grand solar minimum.

[BLI snowman]

I'm really concerned about a big El Nino next winter since this one fizzled.  I kind of wish it had just gotten it out of its system.  Really frustrating times for us.

 

It's hard to envision the mountains doing any worse with that than they have the last couple years. It may be another throwaway winter for us lowlanders if that's the case, but it'd likely be of the active variety. I wouldn't mind a super Nino.

[richard mann]

The western ridging is mainly a result of solar forcing on the Hadley Cells, and has nothing to do with ENSO. Same thing happened from 1999-2003, during the last solar max. A big Niño will actually prolong your suffering.

 

Active Sun warms the top of the cells/ascending branches..thermal wind laws..you get broad/poleward biased Hadley Cells and a variable eddy flux..affects mass transport within/beyond the Ferrel domain.

 

It's going to take time before the PNW can score a big winter outside a solar minimum. Years like 2008-09 & 2010-11 will look tropical compared to winters under a grand solar minimum.

.. I don't accept the thinking here above, as represented. 

 

No. one, it's stated as a series of facts, likely assumptions represented as such, not conjecture; mixed part and part with some fairly sketchy ideas and thoughts (more creative conjecture, speculation.) thrown in (?). .And no. two, I would need to see a set of diagrams working to illustrate the effects being suggested, to even begin to accept them as more sensible conjecture, myself. 

 

— Basically just too tough for me to tell the "color", from the substance. 

 

Left out of the "scheme" (?) / general "continuum" outlined, .. "solar forcing on the Hadley Cells" when and where, more specifically. And, so with this idea, what "same thing happened" is certainly drawn into question. .. "prolong suffering", with "A Big Nino", certainly colorful. ... Follow the "yellow brick .. road". If you like. 

[Front Ranger]

I'm really concerned about a big El Nino next winter since this one fizzled.  I kind of wish it had just gotten it out of its system.  Really frustrating times for us.

 

There is precedent for this weak Nino stuff leading to an ENSO drop without a major El NIno, though. Happened in the late 1940s, 1954, 1970, 1978, 1995, 2005, and 2007.

 

Granted, some of those El Ninos were a little stronger than this +ENSO event, but the point is it doesn't necessarily take a big El Nino to get ENSO to head negative again.

[BLI snowman]

There is precedent for this weak Nino stuff leading to an ENSO drop without a major El NIno, though. Happened in the late 1940s, 1954, 1970, 1978, 1995, 2005, and 2007.

 

Granted, some of those El Ninos were a little stronger than this +ENSO event, but the point is it doesn't necessarily take a big El Nino to get ENSO to head negative again.

 

We had six straight ENSO neutral winters from 1943 to 1949. Four of which were crap here of course.

[Phil]

Nice block on the 00z GGEM Ensembles:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/DmzFRs/800.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

Nice block on the 00z GGEM Ensembles:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/DmzFRs/800.jpg

Holy , Looks cold in the east.  That's new.