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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


Skagit Weather

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Some really sexy ensemble members tonight and a robust retrogression signal that starts at hour 276 and goes to the end.  We might be getting somewhere.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So..delayed, not denied with the NAM flip? Or do we fail again?

 

Niño wave-climo (seasonally governed) favors a late January flip, despite what looked like a very solid opportunity for early wave-driving back in early Jan. Question is, does elasticity win out again? Solar trying to keep the PV intact..

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So..delayed, not denied with the NAM flip? Or do we fail again?

 

Niño wave-climo (seasonally governed) favors a late January flip, despite what looked like a very solid opportunity for early wave-driving back in early Jan. Question is, does elasticity win out again? Solar trying to keep the PV intact..

 

We need some anti solar and anti elasticity logos on here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some good members on the Canadian ensemble also.  Hopefully we'll see something start to emerge over the next few days.

 

Edit:  The ECMWF looks ripe for retrogression late in the run also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Its funny how everyone thinks everybody is a foot ball fan. Lady today asked me about seahawks. I dont watch football, never have even watched a game. She looked at me like I was a alien. I asked her if she seen the latest ecmwf 12z run.

 

What kind of a look did you get? :lol:

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Some really sexy ensemble members tonight and a robust retrogression signal that starts at hour 276 and goes to the end.  We might be getting somewhere.

Looks to me like the Operational is a pretty big outlier.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks to me like the Operational is a pretty big outlier.

 

 

The 500mb maps showed about 1/4 of them looking pretty good late in the run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here's an interesting stats document for 2013. http://www.agf.gov.bc.ca/stats/YinReview/2013_Agrifood_YIR_Web.pdfI guess 2014 is too newly finished to have a review for it. It seems in 2013, Blueberries and Apples were the biggest sellers from BC. I believe I read the US was the biggest importer of BC's Fruit & Nut exports.

I have seen plenty of blueberries and apples for sale here in Socal's grocery stores that are from BC, and many apples that are from WA when they are in season. Of course, WA and BC feature a prime apple growing climate as they need so many chilling hours to properly set fruit.

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I'm skeptical of the GGEM solution..hard for me to envision a retrograde that early, but we'll see.

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-

... Perhaps try thinking in terms more.. of broader cold air's at that point being just 2 or 3 days previous to full regression north... this while also at the same time where looked at more longitudinally.. having been slowing its over-all movement and pace more eastward for 5 or 6 days. 

 

With these ideas in mind and where looking at the date pointed to, I'd say .. that some amount of retrograde is certainly not, implausible.

---
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6z GFS Well, well, well.... Finally, something interesting pops up on the models. Yes, I do realize this is beyond day 10 way out in la-la land, but with how dull and boring things have been we're really hard pressed to find any weather excitement, so why not look at this distinct possibility. Some of the day 11-15 GFS/ECMWF Ensemble members show this possibility too. Anytime a run shows a massive block near/east of the Aleutians during December-February it's hopeful, right? For any event whether it's a wind storm or arctic blast you have to start somewhere, including sometimes beyond day 10. I'm sure 12z runs later this morning will remove any such idea....

 

Cautiously optimistic.

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Yeah major outlier

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was just looking at my garden journal from the last few years.  In two months, my plum should be in bloom along with my maples. 

 

There's still time to squeeze in a snow and cold spell of course!

Just two more weeks of generally mild temps and zero mountain snow. THEN we'll get that carrot!

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Dang the 12z is good too!!! ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Actually I don't... good catch. I guess I jumped the gun assuming it would be at this point.  :mellow:

It obviously will be, its not like we are going to see a -10C ensemble mean for Seattle at day 15.  That just doesn't happen.  Considering the height anomaly center out near western Alaska on the 6Z ensemble, the long range gfs solutions this morning aren't really that surprising.  Considering the GEM ensemble also has positive height anomalies near the Aleutians in the long range, I would think we might see a few more good long range forecasts upcoming. 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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So, often our "warm-ups" show up as major outliers also, So I have a hope...Just one hope, no more, as I used up my quota for the winter. Damit!

 

Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO.

 

Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually.

 

This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke.

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Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO.

 

Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually.

 

This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke.

I do agree to some extent and whole heartedly agree that the winter ski season has been horrible!  That being said, I have one hope left and I am going to use it. It was my golden coated hope so it has magical powers. ;)

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Except a "warm-up" is our default position recently. All of this ridging for the sake of possibly getting arctic air is not worth it IMO.

 

Right now I am excited about the possibility of cold zonal flow eventually.

 

This ski season has been frustrating (just like last year). I know we will make up for it come later in the season, but it loses my appeal. This is the time of the year when you really want to be getting outside and enjoying the winter stoke.

To be fair last season was pretty great if you forget first two months. I doubt this season will be as good because we are not in La Nina or Cold ENSO, I don't think we can have a great 3 month run now where it just snows enough to go from zero to hero.

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To be fair last season was pretty great if you forget first two months. I doubt this season will be as good because we are not in La Nina or Cold ENSO, I don't think we can have a great 3 month run now where it just snows enough to go from zero to hero.

Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cinco de Mayo last year?

 

We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cino de Mayo last year?

 

We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time.

Yea it was. It usually has enough snow to be open in May probably 75% of the seasons, it wasn't open for a few years because when Boyne first acquired Summit they didn't expect it to be profitable.

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Yea it was. It usually has enough snow to be open in May probably 75% of the seasons, it wasn't open for a few years because when Boyne first acquired Summit they didn't expect it to be profitable.

I'm sure they will stay open as long as they possibly can this Spring to try to make up for the crappy start.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Wasn't Snoqualmie open till Cinco de Mayo last year?

 

We'll have to do some serious catching up to make that possible this time.

 

Snoqualmie is almost always open till Mid to Late April. It will not suprise me one bit if they stay open till early May this year.

 

It really is not that unusual for them to open on Cinco De Mayo, for their annual celebration.

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I have heard that after Spring Break, interest in skiing really drops off even if snow conditions are good.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I have heard that after Spring Break, interest in skiing really drops off even if snow conditions are good.

And it's usually mainly the hardcore skiers who have season passes that keep going up. Without new revenue streams from daily passes, I can understand why the ski areas close earlier than they could. 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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