January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Feb or Mar, at some point the death ridge will die. There will be great rejoicing, and children's songs will be written.

I suspect it will inspire a romcom spin off/sequel feature-length film "How Jim got his groove back."

 

#straighttoDVD

[HighlandExperience]

BTW if this torch continues through this year and next winter it will be the longest lasting very warm event since the incredible multi year torch in the late 1930s / early 1940s. If the Nino rekindles and remains through next winter we have a good chance of doing it.

 

Interesting that the economy sucked in the 1930s early 40s as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember spring of 2003 being very wet. There was a decent snow event up here in April at least

[snow_wizard]

This could go like 1940 or 1992.

 

#nobelownormaltempsformonths

[snow_wizard]

Interesting that the economy sucked in the 1930s early 40s as well.

The 1930s on the whole was a good decade for weather. It sucked from late 1937 through much of 1942.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting that the economy sucked in the 1930s early 40s as well. 

 

Fortunately, we don't have a Hitler rising to power and trying to take over the world. As far as I can tell.

[Front Ranger]

This could go like 1940 or 1992.

 

#nobelownormaltempsformonths

 

Prepare for the worst. Hope for mediocre.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the winters of 1939-40 and 1940-41 it's almost beyond belief how endlessly warm both of those were. Unquestionably the worst back to back winters ever.

[Deweydog]

Sure has been warm lately.

 

#hadn'tnoticeduntilnow

[richard mann]

Feb or Mar, at some point the death ridge will die.

 

While certainly, and even certainly rightly so, most people's here interest is in looking forward ...

 

.. In fact I don't see why some people at least here aren't interested in, or at least talking more about, what it's been that has contributed to this stronger more ridge-dominated patterning that's been in place for so long.

 

— Any thoughts here yourself Jared. ? .. Whomever. (?)

[richard mann]

.. So where exactly, is Kalamazoo again. (?)

[wx_statman]

Looking at the winters of 1939-40 and 1940-41 it's almost beyond belief how endlessly warm both of those were. Unquestionably the worst back to back winters ever.

I agree. 1939-41 was probably the worst back to back winter combination on record for our region.

[wx_statman]

.. So where exactly, is Kalamazoo again. (?)

Michigan, silly!

[Front Ranger]

While certainly, and even certainly rightly so, most people's here interest is in looking forward ...

 

.. In fact I don't see why some people at least here aren't interested in, or at least talking more, about what it's been that has contributed to this stronger more ridge-dominated patterning that's been in place for so long.

 

— And thoughts here yourself Jared. ? .. Whomever. (?)

 

Sure, what do you think is causing it? I've heard solar mainly. Atmospheric backlash from a previously -PDO dominated regime?

[richard mann]

.. And the winner is.

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS has much stronger high pressure building in over the north central Pacific by day 8 and finally kicks the Aleutian low out of there. Most promising GFS run in awhile. Granted, not saying much.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The thing is, the temps this winter have been Nino like but the lack of tropical convection and subtropical jet activity have been decidedly un-Nino like. So it's a mixed bag.

 

Clearly the SST and pressure configurations in the Pacific have had a big part in our ongoing pattern, more than just the Nino.

It certainly has been very un-Nino like in CA this month without the subtropical jet that often undercuts the big ridge, and has resulted in extremely dry conditions in Norcal. Socal did have a good storm early in the month and there are a couple of chances for light rainfall this coming week, but definitely not to Nino standards.

[Deweydog]

0z GFS has much stronger high pressure building in over the north central Pacific by day 8 and finally kicks the Aleutian low out of there. Most promising GFS run in awhile. Granted, not saying much.

#Februaryrampup!

[Dan the Weatherman]

The 1930s on the whole was a good decade for weather. It sucked from late 1937 through much of 1942.

1937 to 1942 featured a string of wet winters for Socal, except 1938-1939 was a bit drier, but even that was much better than these last 3 years down here.

[richard mann]

Sure, what do you think is causing it? I've heard solar mainly. Atmospheric backlash from a previously -PDO dominated regime?

 

Sorry, simple typo, I'd meant to type "An[y thoughts" more, above. But it appears that you've answered this question to some extent here anyway. 

 

.. My thinking, in fact fairly far removed from what you've pointed to—both as having heard more and then what you have more here above otherwise, .. is that "mainly", it's been the focus / focusing, of and where looking at the main strongholds of more primary cold (i.e. cold mass more in general.) north. This, where looked at as they've shifted with and from where they had been where more initially more or less established, consolidated through higher latitudes north, this before and with this idea their having either whether or both, worked to hold on and establish themselves better over those spots, or either, have moved to locations more conducive; in either case these areas being / having been those from which main and more primary cold air mass, has moved more into the main mid-latitudes. 

 

.. In fact I've put this a slightly different way if where relating and connected more to main precip., over in the main "Mountain West" sub-forum. My post there accessible here following.  http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=65539

 

Although, as it relates to the PNW, along with the rest of the greater Far West, I may as well just repost the whole of that post here below. (WTh.) ... Italicized, for general differentiation sake.  The theme at the time again, having been main precip., this with "how much there to this point" having been asked, by "Dan The Weatherman". And responded to previous to my post, by yourself.  

 

My perspective, ... A more decent Nino would have generated plenty of main moisture—more obviously. But with its having "dwindled", along with the idea, otherwise and additionally, of there also not having been much cold at all more primary more upstream—to have offset whatever main moisture, … 

 

.. No "snow" (much less.), no rain. (Also, much less.)

 

— Why.  / Why the pattern, why the ridging. ? .. The main reason, factors then, the position/s of more main strong-holds this year, of main more primary cold through the higher latitudes, this set against more on the warm side, .. the more initially strong Nino's having dwindled—and if from here, asking, Why did it. ?

 

.. And then, why had (or has.) cold more primary set up the way it has this winter. ?

 

— One more element here of course. Just where has main and more primary cold set up, and or shifted.

 

And the answer here being, not very well more upstream, to the North, from more directly North, or more NNW, full the way through to more WNW. And in any direction looked at here, where extending it out to a fairly broad scope, even more full the way across the Pacific, more WNW with this idea.

 

.. Main idea here, nothing of more wealth and depth from more upstream: only weaker cold ultimately—where having moved more directly south, or more east from over or more fully across the Pacific, .. set with only a more half-way decent amount of main moisture.

[snow_wizard]

Sure, what do you think is causing it? I've heard solar mainly. Atmospheric backlash from a previously -PDO dominated regime?

I don't think this was a long enough minus PDO regime to warrant a backlash. It was minus almost constantly for about 30 years during the 1946 to 1975 cold period. There was never really concentrated -PDO period before the 1938 to 1942 megatorch either.

[snow_wizard]

I will say the 0z GFS at least attempts to get a little better during week two.

[Sometimesdylan]

0z GFS is pretty good for up here. looks cold and snowy. a welcome change if it verifies. it's been trending better with each run. i wonder if it will keep up and you guys might see some love here soon as well.

[HighlandExperience]

0z GFS is pretty good for up here. looks cold and snowy. a welcome change if it verifies. it's been trending better with each run. i wonder if it will keep up and you guys might see some love here soon as well.

 

It is sad when it is hard to get a little snowy in Alaska. 

[Front Ranger]

It is sad when it is hard to get a little snowy in Alaska. 

 

Juneau is on pace for one of their least snowy winters on record. Of course, their least snowy winter on record is 24". They haven't had less than 50" in a season since 2000-01, and they could still easily get that this winter.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think this was a long enough minus PDO regime to warrant a backlash. It was minus almost constantly for about 30 years during the 1946 to 1975 cold period. There was never really concentrated -PDO period before the 1938 to 1942 megatorch either.

 

Just a possible theory. It could be argued that the 1957-58 period was a bounce back +PDO response, and that only came after about 10 years of -PDO. 

[snow_wizard]

Just a possible theory. It could be argued that the 1957-58 period was a bounce back +PDO response, and that only came after about 10 years of -PDO.

True. That would mean we could go right back into a deep minus PDO regime after this is over.

[Sometimesdylan]

I wonder what this +PDO means for fishing. I know that when salmon are in warmer water they are more active and thus need to eat more. Hope those fishes are finding food to eat and getting nice and fat for this summer!

[Sometimesdylan]

It is sad when it is hard to get a little snowy in Alaska. 

Haines got over 10 feet in the alpine this last week. Heavy wet stuff. Now things are cooler and the snow pack should be right side up all the way into the interior... 

 

I'm headed there Monday to go play in the mountains. Pretty excited to give my snowmobile a couple days in winter paradise and to actually get to ski!

[Sometimesdylan]

Juneau is on pace for one of their least snowy winters on record. Of course, their least snowy winter on record is 24". They haven't had less than 50" in a season since 2000-01, and they could still easily get that this winter.

Thanks for the info! It's been unbearable... The local newspaper has even proclaimed yesterday that "WINTER IS OVER". Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF is giving me hope that they're wrong

[Front Ranger]

Thanks for the info! It's been unbearable... The local newspaper has even proclaimed yesterday that "WINTER IS OVER". Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF is giving me hope that they're wrong

 

Mother Nature loves s**t like that.

 

Yeah, 0z Euro is a step in the right direction, too.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder what this +PDO means for fishing. I know that when salmon are in warmer water they are more active and thus need to eat more. Hope those fishes are finding food to eat and getting nice and fat for this summer!

I've heard +PDO events are bad for salmon...at least down here.

[snow_wizard]

Thanks for the info! It's been unbearable... The local newspaper has even proclaimed yesterday that "WINTER IS OVER". Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF is giving me hope that they're wrong

Downright stupid for them to say that up there.

[Front Ranger]

Downright stupid for them to say that up there.

 

I have to agree. You're talking about a place that has seen over 60" of snow in March (2007) and over 40" in April.

[wx_statman]

Medford seems to be in some sort of inversion. Sunny, but only 56. Not gonna come anywhere near their monthly record of 71 from 1961.

 

Interestingly enough, it was 70 on this date last year in Medford. Just missed that monthly record.

[wx_statman]

It was also 73 on this date last year in North Bend. Also missed the monthly record by one degree. 74 in 1940.

 

I wish WRCC would update their numbers.

[Front Ranger]

Looking like Fairbanks could make a run at -50 now in a couple days. Definitely some different things going on with the pattern than we've seen so far this winter.

[wx_statman]

Looking like Fairbanks could make a run at -50 now in a couple days. Definitely some different things going on with the pattern than we've seen so far this winter.

 

It will be a tall order to hit -50, they don't do that very often. Something like -46 or -47 looks possible though. Fort Yukon could make a run at -55 on the other hand.

[Sometimesdylan]

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2015-01-23/forecasters-winter-over

 

here is the article 

[Front Ranger]

It will be a tall order to hit -50, they don't do that very often. Something like -46 or -47 looks possible though. Fort Yukon could make a run at -55 on the other hand.

 

NWS is going with -48 right now. Like I said, could make a run at it. Quite the change.