January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2015-01-23/forecasters-winter-over

 

here is the article 

 

“Chances are whatever snow we get is probably going to be technically in the spring, and then, only if we get lucky,” Fritsch said.

 

What an idiot.

[wx_statman]

NWS is going with -48 right now. Like I said, could make a run at it. Quite the change.

 

No, the NWS is going for -40 to -48. That's not "going with -48."

 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 48 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30 TO 40 BELOW.

HIGHS 20 TO 30 BELOW.

 

[richard mann]

“Chances are whatever snow we get is probably going to be technically in the spring, and then, only if we get lucky,” Fritsch said.

 

What an idiot.

 

No name calling. 

[richard mann]

-
.. I say we clock it all back to "the night before" Christmas, and hope for the best. 
 
— Either that or and if again, back to daily mediation.  http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=64645
-

[richard mann]

-
Fairbanks Alaska made it down to - 23°F yesterday at 00z, 3pm local time .. per main Aviation METARs. http://aviationweather.gov/metar
 
— Coldest for the station yesterday.
 
Bettles Airport, approximately 150 mi. NW of Fairbanks, got down to - 45°F, when I checked at 11z , 2am local, earlier this morning. 
 
Bettles Airport   Past 12 hours METARs
 
Fairbanks   Same for Fairbanks.      N. Amer. Temp. Contours   (source: "Unisys Wx")

[TT-SEA]

Sun is up... warm front muckiness is gone.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/4b3jfav2o/nb11.jpg

[snow_wizard]

-

.. I say we clock it all back to "the night before" Christmas, and hope for the best. 

 

— Either that or and if again, back to daily mediation.  http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=64645

-

I vote for this solution. Wind the clock back and try it again!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z ramps up the action in the long range. Looks to get very active.

[TT-SEA]

12z ramps up the action in the long range. Looks to get very active.

 

 

Lots of warm, southerly flow rain on that run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

As strange as the last year has been weather wise. I am confident we see a return to winter in February.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lots of warm, southerly flow rain on that run.

With so.e mountain snow also.

[snow maniac]

Zero visibility here, with light drizzle. Sure hope to see some clearing.

[TT-SEA]

With so.e mountain snow also.

 

 

Some... but lots of 850mb spikes into the 3-6C range as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and mild up here above the fog.

[TT-SEA]

With so.e mountain snow also.

 

 

And the 12Z Canadian disagrees and basically keeps the ridge over us through 240 hours.   Certainly not active on that run.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

One piece of good news is the solar activity has dropped sharply this month.

[TT-SEA]

Nice little offshore breeze here... already 55 and totally sunny. Today and tomorrow are going to be insanely nice for Janaury.

[Front Ranger]

No, the NWS is going for -40 to -48. That's not "going with -48."

 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 48 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30 TO 40 BELOW.

HIGHS 20 TO 30 BELOW.

 

 

Last night on the specific forecast for Fairbanks airport, they had -48 as the forecast low.

[snow_wizard]

The ensembles continue to look bleak. Persistent suppressed jet over the North Central and NE Pacific forcing a Western ridge.

[Deweydog]

Already up to 69 at Horse Creek.  

[ShawniganLake]

The ensembles continue to look bleak. Persistent suppressed jet over the North Central and NE Pacific forcing a Western ridge.

Yep, this winter is over west of the Rockies.   The east is going to get crushed. 

[snow_wizard]

Yep, this winter is over west of the Rockies.   The east is going to get crushed.

February could certainly have a 1934 look to it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep, this winter is over west of the Rockies.   The east is going to get crushed.

 

winter is not over. And I am willing to bet more money on that than you probably would care to. Lol

[Front Ranger]

And the 12Z Canadian disagrees and basically keeps the ridge over us through 240 hours.   Certainly not active on that run.

 

 

The overall trend in the models the past 24 hours has been to weaken the western ridging considerably by the beginning of February. This continued with the 12z Euro.

 

Here's Feb 1-2 on yesterday's 12z.

 

 

 

 

 

And then today.

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

winter is not over. And I am willing to bet more money on that than you probably would care to. Lol

Might depend on what your definition of winter is?  A snow day with a sub-freezing high probably isn't in the cards for most places. 

[ShawniganLake]

The overall trend in the models the past 24 hours has been to weaken the western ridging considerably by the beginning of February. This continued with the 12z Euro.

 

Some type of wet wsw flow seems pretty likely in early February.

[Snowman5678]

56 degrees at 11:20am here with mostly sunny skies. Feels like spring! Meanwhile Blizzard watch up for my hometown on the east coast where 1-2ft of snow or more is expected. I'm glad this is my last winter out here.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might depend on what your definition of winter is?  A snow day with a sub-freezing high probably isn't in the cards for most places.

 

Yeah that could be hard to pull off. I do believe the lowlands will still get some snow this winter and the mountains will get crushed in march.

[wx_statman]

Already up to 69 at Horse Creek.  

 

77 on 1-17-2014

77 on 1-16-2009

76 on 1-19-2013

75 on 2-13-1996

75 on 2-23-1995

74 on 1-15-2009

74 on 2-27-1992

 

These are their DJF maximums since the station went online in 1985. Will be interesting to see where they land today. Third straight January they're shooting for the stars.

[Deweydog]

77 on 1-17-2014

77 on 1-16-2009

76 on 1-19-2013

75 on 2-13-1996

75 on 2-23-1995

74 on 1-15-2009

74 on 2-27-1992

 

These are their DJF maximums since the station went online in 1985. Will be interesting to see where they land today. Third straight January they're shooting for the stars.

73 so far...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just went up on Grade Road east of my house toward the general vicinity of Horse Creek. It was about 66 on my car thermometer at that point.

[wx_statman]

Fog just cleared out here in Happy Valley. Another beautiful day on tap!

[Front Ranger]

As is often the case with such warm temps aloft, strong inversion today over the Willamette Valley. Almost 30 degrees warmer at 3,000 ft vs 300'.

[Front Ranger]

No such inversion for the Puget Sound today...was looking like SEA might have an outside shot at their monthly record of 64, but they actually cooled from 58 to 57 the past hour, so probably not.

[Deweydog]

No such inversion for the Puget Sound today...was looking like SEA might have an outside shot at their monthly record of 64, but they actually cooled from 58 to 57 the past hour, so probably not.

 

Still a bit of an inversion up there as told by the dew points.  There's no real way to mix the lower layers today adiabatically, as you might expect because if things did there would be widespread 70's.  

[wx_statman]

Speaking of Seattle, it was 62/55 at BFI yesterday.

[wx_statman]

I just went up on Grade Road east of my house toward the general vicinity of Horse Creek. It was about 66 on my car thermometer at that point.

 

I'm about to drive out to the foothills. I want to feel some real warmth. Peak heating should occur between about 1-2pm up there at this time of year.

[wx_statman]

72 at Wanderer's Peak @ 4,350 feet.

[TT-SEA]

No such inversion for the Puget Sound today...was looking like SEA might have an outside shot at their monthly record of 64, but they actually cooled from 58 to 57 the past hour, so probably not.

 

 

65 degrees here... seems to be a little cooler down in the valley.   Feels like a nice May day here.   My daughter and I went for a bike ride and she told me 'its nice to have summer again'.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Still a bit of an inversion up there as told by the dew points.  There's no real way to mix the lower layers today adiabatically, as you might expect because if things did there would be widespread 70's.  

 

Oh yeah, still an inversion of sorts...just not like the one in the Willamette Valley today.