January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

It likely is. Also hit 72 in Everett. 66 in downtown Seattle that month. That was a massive pineapple express torch following our cold spell.

That was actually two top tier warm air masses about a week apart. The pineapple express torch followed by the ridge around the 31st. There were legit readings around 70 in the favored locations around Puget Sound in the latter event.

[Front Ranger]

FYI the Redding numbers from January 1920 are bogus. The real monthly record appears to be 81 on 1-4-1984. Salem was 65 that day.

 

Yeah, it does appear something funky was going on early that year at that station.

 

Although it also does appear there was a legit record-breaking warm air mass later in January 1920 in the region.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Those weeklies tend to go with persistence a lot, I've noticed. Doesn't mean that won't verify, but something to keep in mind. At one point they were looking pretty nice for January...didn't turn out great.

I think that February has a good chance of being better than January, but due to the ultra-persistent patterns as of late, it is hard to tell at this point. It used to be that a dry January was often followed by a stormier February, even though it doesn't happen every time.

[snow_wizard]

Probably not, but the most vocal people about it seem to fit that bill.  

 

After all is said and done, we will have had at least three pushes of modified Arctic air this winter.  I'll take my chances with that any year.

I think this still misses the point the brief cold snaps were surrounded by torching before, after, and in between. When the season is over we can crunch the numbers and see how bad it has really been / will be.

[Front Ranger]

You can't deny the ridiculously warm summer and autumn on top of this winter puts it in pretty rare company.

 

No doubt.

[Front Ranger]

I think that February has a good chance of being better than January, but due to the ultra-persistent patterns as of late, it is hard to tell at this point. It used to be that a dry January was often followed by a stormier February, even though it doesn't happen every time.

 

It doesn't happen every time, but historically it's happened most of the time.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, but low of only 27. PDX at least managed to hit 21 in late December.

I would argue that an afternoon reading of 27 with snow and east winds at 33 mph is more impressive than a morning low of 21 under clear skies.

 

But as has been said, neither event did much to make its respective crappy winter better.

[Deweydog]

I think this still misses the point the brief cold snaps were surrounded by torching before, after, and in between. When the season is over we can crunch the numbers and see how bad it has really been / will be.

 

There's not doubt the last six months have been historic.  But, from an observed weather perspective, the way this cold season, stand alone, has played out is not at all a surprise.  Whether this was a warm neutral winter or an actual nino, it's been an nino above our heads.  

[snow_wizard]

At least the odds of a Nino next year are low.

I think we have a good 50% chance of a Nino next winter actually. The fact the Nino is about to strengthen again at this point in the winter is pretty bothersome.

[Front Ranger]

I would argue that an afternoon reading of 27 with snow and east winds at 33 mph is more impressive than a morning low of 21 under clear skies.

 

Yeah, I mean Dec 2014 probably would have had something similar if there had been precip. Really similar air masses, the one this winter stuck around a bit longer.

 

But the real thing that sets this winter apart from 1939-40 was the November air mass, as I said.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Don't see 12C/54F dewpoints in Victoria in January very often, these sort of dewpoints wouldn't be out of place in a rainy period from May-September but pretty rare at this time of year. Just a few days away from ridging building into the Bering Sea, not that it makes any difference.

[Deweydog]

Funny thing is that 2002-03 had three as well (the third one was the March 2003 Fraser River event though). We're hard pressed to not get least one, even in our shittiest years.

 

Eh.  I think you're really stretching for the goal line there.  This year's events were all fairly pungent as opposed to 2002 which had only one, occurring a full month prior to winter.  

[wx_statman]

Yeah, I mean Dec 2014 probably would have had something similar if there had been precip. Really similar air masses, the one this winter stuck around a bit longer.

 

But the real thing that sets this winter apart from 1939-40 was the November air mass, as I said.

I agree that 1939-40 was worse. It would be hard to top that one.

[snow_wizard]

BTW if this torch continues through this year and next winter it will be the longest lasting very warm event since the incredible multi year torch in the late 1930s / early 1940s. If the Nino rekindles and remains through next winter we have a good chance of doing it.

[Front Ranger]

BTW if this torch continues through this year and next winter it will be the longest lasting very warm event since the incredible multi year torch in the late 1930s / early 1940s. If the Nino rekindles and remains through next winter we have a good chance of doing it.

 

That's looking pretty far ahead. Just sayin'

[richard mann]

....

 

After all is said and done, we will have had at least three pushes of modified Arctic air this winter.  I'll take my chances with that any year.

 

Please do correct me here if I'm wrong, but this, with as I believe you had pointed to in at least one case, and I would more here where considering it along with the others, all more "continental", as in from more inland and to the east (NE) with there having been more "retrograde" type.

 

edit:  Or, per request inferred subsequently here further along within this thread, … Less "rambly", and with more potential for being appreciated as "hyperbole", or as an example of—even exercise in—one-upsmanship. With the extra attention (?) to the form that I've put these ideas in more originally above, I'd been attempting to "defer" to .. the type of "scrutiny" (?) that I've been subjected to, ultimately (further ahead.) .. anyway. (Oh Well.) .. An alternative, version.

 

Please do [C]orrect me here if I'm wrong, but … this [above], with as I believe you['d] pointed to in at least one case[—]and I would here where considering it[,] along with the others, [… A]ll more "continental". [.. A]s in from more inland and to the east (NE), with there having been [of a] more "retrograde" type.

 

.. Either way. ...

[BLI snowman]

The thing is, the temps this winter have been Nino like but the lack of tropical convection and subtropical jet activity have been decidedly un-Nino like. So it's a mixed bag.

 

Clearly the SST and pressure configurations in the Pacific have had a big part in our ongoing pattern, more than just the Nino.

[Deweydog]

Please do correct me here if I'm wrong here, but this, with as I believe you had pointed to in at least one case, and I would more here, all more "continental", as in from more inland and to the east (NE) with there having been more "retrograde" type.

 

Yes?

[BLI snowman]

Eh.  I think you're really stretching for the goal line there.  This year's events were all fairly pungent as opposed to 2002 which had only one, occurring a full month prior to winter.  

 

Late February 2003? Was certainly a decent, albeit unspectacular airmass. Teens on the westside in the last week of February, and a strong gap wind event. Every bit as impressive for us as the late December 2014 event, IMO.

[Deweydog]

Late February 2003? Was certainly a decent, albeit unspectacular airmass. Teens on the westside in the last week of February, and a strong gap wind event. Every bit as impressive for us as the late December 2014 event, IMO.

 

Perhaps a sign of things to come???

[bainbridgekid]

Jesus, Eugene hit 68.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEUG.html

 

All time January record, right?

[Front Ranger]

The thing is, the temps this winter have been Nino like but the lack of tropical convection and subtropical jet activity have been decidedly un-Nino like. So it's a mixed bag.

 

Clearly the SST and pressure configurations in the Pacific have had a big part in our ongoing pattern, more than just the Nino.

 

It's been a classic +PDO winter.

[BLI snowman]

Perhaps a sign of things to come???

 

We can only hope! Then Flatiron can claim victory for his bold February call. 

[Deweydog]

Jesus, Eugene hit 68.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEUG.html

 

Medford only hit 59. 

[Deweydog]

We can only hope! Then Flatiron can claim victory for his bold February call. 

 

It's not gonna be as quiet a month (but probably close).  

[snow_wizard]

That's looking pretty far ahead. Just sayin'

I'm sure it will find a way to make sure my statement was correct.

[BLI snowman]

And BLI appears likely to see an all time record warm January low today of 52. Sheesh, I barely even notice records like this anymore....

[richard mann]

Yes?

 

.. What's the question element here about. ?  .. And with this, what of what I'd said suggested are you in fact responding to. ?

[Deweydog]

61 here with the sun setting.  Goofy balls.  

[Deweydog]

.. What's the question element here about. ?

 

You rambled like a mofo so I guessed.  

[richard mann]

 Great.

[richard mann]

How about, ... had (hadn't. ?) all three shots been retrograde already. ?
 
— Better. ?  http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=65497

[Deweydog]

How about, ... had (hadn't. ?) all three shots been retrograde already. ?

 

— Better. ? http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=65497

Retrogression is our friend!

[richard mann]

"Lovely". ?  

 

Perhaps, my point's been gathered irrespective. (Regardless. ?)

 

At the risk of being perceived as "rambling" on, yet further, ...

 

"... In line with my having suggested earlier, that 'we' .. haven't seen much at all in the way of more upstream cold this colder season." 

 

— Not so much a good thing, nor something I might want to befriend. ....

[wx_statman]

Jesus, Eugene hit 68.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEUG.html

 

All time January record, right?

 

Yes. 68 at EUG and 67 at RDM are monthly records.

[wx_statman]

You rambled like a mofo so I guessed.  

 

50/50 shot. Unless the answer is maybe.

[wx_statman]

80 at Redding. First time in January at the modern WSO station which went online in 1986. Previously 78 under the death ridge in January 2009.

[Front Ranger]

Perhaps a sign of things to come???

You know it's bad when we're rooting for the 2002-03 analog. I wouldn't mind a repeat of March 2003 here.

[Deweydog]

You know it's bad when we're rooting for the 2002-03 analog. I wouldn't mind a repeat of March 2003 here.

Our raucous Februrary to come some are calling for may take some of the teeth out of March.

[Front Ranger]

Our raucous Februrary to come some are calling for may take some of the teeth out of March.

 

Feb or Mar, at some point the death ridge will die. There will be great rejoicing, and children's songs will be written.