Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_composite.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Radar looks kind of showery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Tom, whats your call for me in Metro Detroit?Based what I've seen so far, 12-16" is darn good for your area. GFS painted more, but lets see if tonight's runs continue that trend. South side of Detroit might be the epicenter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM...it's really starting to see the Lehs precip... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Radar is awesome. I love watching this thing unfold...and its on a weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z WRF... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 La crosse has more snow in its pinpoint than I do south of Madison...lol what is mkx doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z WRF...that looks awesome. best part is that its additional on top of what we have gotten so far. I would say we have about .8 to 1.10" of precip left here in Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the GFS comes in like the NAM, MKE really needs to upgrade the WWA advisory to a WSW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 What a shame looking at the precipitation on radar. Wasting all of it on rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.midwestweather.org/2015/01/the-storm-of-season-to-strike-with.html Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS is coming even more north than 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. Mehh. It freaks me out man haha... Snowing like crazy out right now. Accumulating on streets and sidewalks. Incredibly good sign. They stated that it would turn back to rain/snow mix, but it never did. Totals may need to be upped IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 The radar looks like a classic crippling winter storm. Very slow movement with tremendous amount of moisture feed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like OAX is sticking with the current forecast. I noticed at 130ish they updated the WWA to say 5-8" now instead of 4-7" at least for Omaha. I think we'll be on the high end of those totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Omaha NWS....oh they are interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago with 16-18 or so on 18z GFS. All of MKE CWA is 6+ with 7-8 near here. Keeps going up as the event nears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z GFS is coming even more north than 12z GFS.Trends have been our friend lately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mehh. It freaks me out man haha... Snowing like crazy out right now. Accumulating on streets and sidewalks. Incredibly good sign. They stated that it would turn back to rain/snow mix, but it never did. Totals may need to be upped IMOI think the totals that the Hastings WFO has for their eastern zones are more than what Omaha has for their eastern zones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the totals that the Hastings WFO has for their eastern zones are more than what Omaha has for their eastern zones. Hell, the Hasting's AFD includes what time the plows go out, coffee of the week, even a detailed and complete forecast discussion! Wow, how absurd! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 DMX has bumped up their snowfall graph a little too. Unbelievable how this is unfolding.http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/fxc/WebForecastSnowfall.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hell, the Hasting's AFD includes what time the plows go out, coffee of the week, even a detailed and complete forecast discussion! Wow, how absurd!the Omaha guys put out a new AFD twice a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 OAX NWS Final call it would appear. http://i.imgur.com/BjkujaK.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Steady mist falling here for the past 30 minutes. (I-80 & I-39) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 the Omaha guys put out a new AFD twice a day. (Off topic, I know one last post Mod's) I don't how long you have been following them, but I remember two winter's ago a winter storm similar to this and the last update before things really got going was 2 paragraphs...if you can discuss an entire 7 day forecast in 2 paragraphs it probably isn't very complete. Wasn't impressed with their's today at all, just a synoptic setup a brief paragraph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like it is switching over to snow in Des moines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Has anybody noticed how the low is 4 mb or so stronger as it goes through southern Illinois on the GFS? I wonder why there is such a discrepancy in strength right before the storm. Also the added strength produces 45+ mph gusts in some spots for northern Illinois. If that verified a blizzard warning would definitely be needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...10 TO 15 INCHES STORM TOTAL. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOT increased to 12-14" for most of the lakeside counties. NW IN onward looks to get hammered, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 18" amounts. Seems like a general 10-14" across the whole area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOT increased to 12-14" for most of the lakeside counties. NW IN onward looks to get hammered, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 18" amounts. Seems like a general 10-14" across the whole area.Just saw that. 10-14 for Chicagoland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Snowfall rates really increasing here in Omaha, got a nice slushy coating this morning and early this afternoon - then a small break where it turned back to some flurries and light rain. Now its all snow and coming down moderately, with heavy snow building to the southwest. Finally glad we have something interesting weather wise to talk about... I enjoyed the 50-60 degree weather over the last couple of weeks but I have been wishing for a decent snowstorm... and it looks like we have it! My call for Omaha tonight is higher than the NWS forecast - I am calling for 8-10" with isolated higher amounts of near a foot just to our east across the Missouri River in Western Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAYNIGHT IS BY FAR THE PRIMARY FOCUS...WITH THE FOLLOWING MAINCONCERNS:-POSSIBILITY OF PTYPE ISSUES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLYSUNDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWSOVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF MY AREA.-PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDSOF MY AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.-POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGERNORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULDPRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONSOF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A BLIZZARDWARNING FOR ANY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TOCONSIDER ONE IF THE WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS STRONG. ONLY CHANCESTO GOING HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND THROUGH 06 UTC MONDAY FOR MYWESTERN CWA AND THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY FOR MY EASTERN CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERYIMPRESSIVE PLUMB OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSSTHE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN FACT...THIS MORNINGSSOUNDING OUT OF KOAX INDICATED PWATS UP AROUND 0.64 INCHES...WHICHIS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...OUR MAINWEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AND HALF...IS NOW NOTED AS APOTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSSMONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF THISMOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THEAFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING WARMADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THEPRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION BY MIDEVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE...ATLEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLYSOUTH OF PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. WARMER AIR INITIALLY...WILLLIKELY ALLOW THIS PRECIP TO START AS SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND THISINITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN COULD GET FARTHER NORTH THEN THE ABOVEMENTIONED LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THISEVENING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILLSWITCH OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGSSOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW FORAREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HOWEVER...WELL SOUTH OF THEINTERSTATE...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLOWER TOERODE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE RAIN THAN SNOW THIS EVENING. ASSUCH...CONFIDENCE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA IS LOW WITH TIMING OFTRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW SHOULD FALL AT A GOOD RATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MYAREA AS A BAND OF 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERNILLINOIS. THIS SNOWFALL TONIGHT ALONE COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCHES OFSNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPERSHORT WAVE TOUGH FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYAND THUS RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST DYNAMICS SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGLOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS A STRONGER SOLUTION WILL NOT ONLYSUPPORT MORE SNOWFALL...BUT ALSO STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ASSUCH...WIND SPEEDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONGENOUGH TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I WILL NOTUPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IT MAY NEED TOBE CONSIDERED IF A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER SURFACE SYSTEMMATERIALIZES. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH IMPACT STORM FORMUCH OF THE AREA. THE 850 MB LOW IS SET TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRALILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS AGAIN COULD PUT THE SNOW TORAIN LINE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLYLEADING TO A SHARPE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRADIENT OVER MY FAR SOUTH...ORJUST OUTSIDE OF MY AREA TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE 850 AND 700 MB LOWS WOULD SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVYSNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THROUGHTHE DAY TOMORROW...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UPWITHIN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE. AS SUCH SNOW RATES IN EXCESSOF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOMORROW. SNOWSHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFFACROSS MY WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING.HOWEVER...SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MY EASTERNCWA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING. ASMENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...INVERSION HEIGHTS DO NOT GETVERY HIGH...BUT THE FACT THAT THEY WILL STILL BE WITHIN THEDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MINORADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...I HAVEMADE THE CHANGES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE TO THE GOING WINTER STORM WARNING. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO TOP OUT NEAR A FOOT IN MANYAREAS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY GETTING A COUPLE MORE INCHES THAN THIS.IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGHER IS GETTINGHEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO 3/4 OF MY AREA.CONFIDENCE ON TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IS A BIT LOWER ACROSS MY CENTRALILLINOIS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXING ISSUES. KJBLOT may go with a blizzard warning if the stronger solutions with the low are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just saw that. 10-14 for ChicagolandYep. Looks like LOT is buying into the LES starting to crank tomorrow night. WSW until 6 a.m. Monday. Highest totals for point and click are 16" that would be crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 DVN has me at 10 now... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mkx just downplaying the whole event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lot/wx/File.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 U-N-B-E-L-E-I-V-A-B-L-E.....18z keeps getting stronger and snowier. 8 days ago to the day the 00z GGEM painted almost a carbon copy 18z GFS snowfall map, just a tad farther south than what the GFS is currently showing. Here we are just about at the onset of this major storm and we are about to get hit with 1-2' of snow in the region. You couldn't have dreamt it up any better. I'm very curious to see what the latest RPM model is showing. I'd tune into WGN news @ 5pm. If anyone can, please post those maps as I am heading to the gym now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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