February 2014 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

You're

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPxNcdZFCWE

[Guest Monty67]

Tim, models aside, how do you think this weekend will play out?

[Guest Monty67]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPxNcdZFCWE

Good one, I quite like those commercials.

[Phil]

18Z is meh for down here. Bulk of the cold digs into SW Canada. The westerlies bursting through the minute the PV approaches just keeps it from digging as far south as previously shown. Climo probably also plays a factor. Most events at this point in the season have a fairly stark North/South gradient. This one looks like it will be no exception.

 

Could be another great event for Whatcom County. Hopefully the Seattle area can get in on the action as well this time.

GFS is beginning to follow the Euro in keeping the PV held back in W Canada. Not good but these developments could easily be a hiccup.

[TT-SEA]

GFS is beginning to follow the Euro in keeping the PV held back in W Canada. Not good but these developments could easily be a hiccup.

 

 

This is starting to feel less interesting.    I suppose there will be surprises... but it seems less explosive and seems to transition to wet and mild rather quickly.  

[Snowman5678]

It's amazing how much more pleasant watching snow melting slowly in the sunshine is than the depressing slushfest we usually go through (though we had that Monday.)

 

Still solid snowcover here except South facing slopes in the sun and there's still 4-6" of snow in the shade despite temperatures in the 40's yesterday and near 50 today.

 

And there's not even that many puddles because they are drying up in the sun since DP's have been in the mid 20's all day.

so jealous...

[TT-SEA]

It's amazing how much more pleasant watching snow melting slowly in the sunshine is than the depressing slushfest we usually go through (though we had that Monday.)

 

Still solid snowcover here except South facing slopes in the sun and there's still 4-6" of snow in the shade despite temperatures in the 40's yesterday and near 50 today.

 

And there's not even that many puddles because they are drying up in the sun since DP's have been in the mid 20's all day.

 

 

It is amazing... very much like what happens in the Midwest.   Reminds me of home when that happens here.   

 

Also the reason I personally hate transition events that end up in pouring rain immediately when the snow stops.    I would rather just not have the snow.   It is easier.   

 

I have heard all the reasons why any and all snow is awesome... I guess I am snow snob then.    The event in Bellingham seems like it was awesome overall... although Monday was a little wet the dewpoint never went above freezing.    That is the key.   The worst events are when the dewpoint shoots up into the 40s when the snow stops.   

[Deweydog]

It is amazing... very much like what happens in the Midwest.   Reminds me of home when that happens here.   

 

Also the reason I personally hate transition events that end up in pouring rain immediately when the snow stops.    I would rather just not have the snow.   It is easier.   

 

People will disagree with you about that!  That'll be fun and provide you with much-needed, attention-based nourishment!

[TT-SEA]

People will disagree with you about that!  That'll be fun and provide you with much-needed, attention-based nourishment!

 

 

Yep... people need to raise their standards a little.   Our climate is capable of producing enjoyable snow!

[TT-SEA]

What a spectacular day here.    Could not have picked a better day for the transition home.     

 

Looks like next week might be a repeat of the last week in terms of persistent precip and clouds.     We will have a little time to adjust though.    Hopefully we can get into a better pattern after next week.   

 

The latest ECMWF weeklies indicate that might happen... 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-clues-through-march/23708435

[Snowman5678]

It is amazing... very much like what happens in the Midwest.   Reminds me of home when that happens here.   

 

Also the reason I personally hate transition events that end up in pouring rain immediately when the snow stops.    I would rather just not have the snow.   It is easier.   

 

I have heard all the reasons why any and all snow is awesome... I guess I am snow snob then.    The event in Bellingham seems like it was awesome overall... although Monday was a little wet the dewpoint never went above freezing.    That is the key.   The worst events are when the dewpoint shoots up into the 40s when the snow stops.   

Which never happens out here

[Phil]

This is starting to feel less interesting. I suppose there will be surprises... but it seems less explosive and seems to transition to wet and mild rather quickly.

Brennan will probably see more snow in NYC than the rest of us combined.

 

/troll

[TT-SEA]

Brennan will probably see more snow in NYC than the rest of us combined.

 

/troll

 

 

And he got to see an epic event at home before he left.

 

He should be in heaven.    

[Snowman5678]

Wow, marvelous day today...high of 60 here in downtown Redmond. Not sure what it hit at my place.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So does this look to end up as marginal to lack luster event based on the trends of the models today? Been to busy to look.

[brody]

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022618/nw/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nw_41.pngHere's Monday, It is the 18Z though

 

 

 

EURO Precip 24 hr accum.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014022612/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_21.png

[brody]

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022618/nw/gfs_t2max_anom_nw_41.pngGFS 2m temp@120 hrs ( Monday ) 

 

 

 

 

And the EURO for comparison 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014022612/nw/ecmwf_t2max_anom_nw_21.png

[Timmy Supercell]

I can't view the above images, Brody. Just saying

[brody]

I can't view the above images, Brody. Just saying

Weird, were you able to see the ones I posted yesterday?

 

I posted 4 images, can you not see all of them?

[Timmy Supercell]

Weird, were you able to see the ones I posted yesterday?

 

I posted 4 images, can you not see all of them?

 

I saw those from yesterday, just not these.

[brody]

I saw those from yesterday, just not these.

Hmmm, links are valid 

[HighlandExperience]

I can't view the above images, Brody. Just saying

 

Same here I can't see them in my browser for some reason. Says they are in .png format.

 

Edit: I was able to see your images yesterday though.

[Phil]

Did you code them?

[brody]

Did you code them?

Nope

[Jesse]

I was just curious... You don't have your master's in teaching do you?

I'm working on it.

[TT-SEA]

Nope

 

 

Well do something different or describe the maps.

[brody]

Well do something different or describe the maps.

GFS total accum. snowfall ending Monday was around 4+ inches 

 

Euro was drier about 2+ inches 

 

Temp wise, the GFS 2m MAX was near -7C and the EURO was markedly warmer around -4C

[HighlandExperience]

GFS total accum. snowfall ending Monday was around 4+ inches 

 

Euro was drier about 2+ inches 

 

Temp wise, the GFS 2m MAX was near -7C and the EURO was markedly warmer around -4C

 

The 00z should be interesting.

[seattleweatherguy]

GFS total accum. snowfall ending Monday was around 4+ inches 

 

Euro was drier about 2+ inches 

 

Temp wise, the GFS 2m MAX was near -7C and the EURO was markedly warmer around -4C

I would go with the Euro and go conservative for now. Especially with seattle.

[bainbridgekid]

I'd say the 18z Operational was a bit of an outlier.

 

Getting to the range where the ensembles don't mean too much though

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

I'd say the 18z Operational was a bit of an outlier.

 

Getting to the range where the ensembles don't mean too much though

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

Sure looks wet after the next couple days... that is a screaming message there.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty heartened by the fact the ECMWF ensemble looks about the best of any mode for lowland snow prospects and it is considered the best model. It and the GFS ensemble really like the idea of sending the cold air out over a short water trajectory and then swinging the jet into SW WA. Just about as good as it gets for trajectory in a case like this. I am very puzzled why about 90% of the GFS ensemble members are much better for us at the 500mb level than the operational GFS. You could argue that terrain may cause problems for 850mb ensemble projections, but the 500mb level isn't effected by terrain to any great extent.

 

At this point let's hope the GFS is running too warm to make up for running too cold on the last event. Right now it does seem to be the warm outlier.

[snow_wizard]

I'd say the 18z Operational was a bit of an outlier.

 

Getting to the range where the ensembles don't mean too much though

 

It is pretty odd when it's by far the warmest member of all though. When looking at the ECMWF ensemble it seems almost certain the GFS will trend colder in the home stretch. The GFS seems to have really fallen on hard times over the past week.

[snow_wizard]

Another very noteworthy thing about the ECMWF ensemble is it indicates -16C 850mb temps along the east slopes of the Cascades. The outflow winds are sure to be very cold if that verifies. With that cold of air I am bit concerned we may get freezing rain when the layer of cold air gets shallower early next week. Pretty weird to see that kind of situation in March.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

A little over 3 weeks from spring...

[Phil]

Nope

Well that's your problem then. You need to put in the proper BB code

[Deweydog]

A little over 3 weeks from spring...

 

Three days, meteorologically speaking...

[Phil]

It is pretty odd when it's by far the warmest member of all though. When looking at the ECMWF ensemble it seems almost certain the GFS will trend colder in the home stretch. The GFS seems to have really fallen on hard times over the past week.

Again, it could be the lack of resolution on the GEFS, hence poor handling of the Cascades' influence.

 

The ECMWF doesn't take 850s below -4 in SEA before flow turns onshore and temps/dewpoints rise in the low levels.

[TT-SEA]

Today was the first day since February 5th with 0.00 in the rain gauge at SEA.

 

SEA is at 6.11 inches for the month.   Over 11 inches of rain at my location.   Mountains are in great shape now as well.

 

We are entering spring without any drought worries.    Meteorological spring starts Saturday... but the first week of spring might be very winter-like.      

[Jesse]

Jim still seems optimistic so that makes me feel a little better.