February 2014 in the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

I haven't felt this good about a big snow coming since 2008.

 

The best has been saved for last... Excited about this coming weekend.  IT is going to be hard to concentrate at work today... arghh 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For those south of the Columbia River this is trending toward non-event status...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Except for Jesse probably.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

oh wait Jesse is on the WA side. 
 

[catnip]

12Z Nam looks snowy!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still tons of snow on the 12z nam. But.. the low stalls further north and that also stalls the arctic front. Still alot to figure out with this complex situation.

[Jesse]

Not liking what I'm reading this morning. Low stalls north. Arctic front stalls. Then the 06Z GFS comes out and is incredibly underwhelming for down here, along with the ensembles. Not a good trend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not liking what I'm reading this morning. Low stalls north. Arctic front stalls. Then the 06Z GFS comes out and is incredibly underwhelming for down here, along with the ensembles. Not a good trend.

Going to be close.

[Jesse]

Going to be close.

 

I think this event is going to target the areas that haven't been hit yet this winter. North of Kelso, south of Mt. Vernon. Probably gobs of snow up there. Which is awesome, you guys have been waiting for it.

 

My gut feeling tells me that we will be missed down south, though. These March events tend to have big N/S gradients anyway.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think this event is going to target the areas that haven't been hit yet this winter. North of Kelso, south of Mt. Vernon. Probably gobs of snow up there. Which is awesome, you guys have been waiting for it.

 

My gut feeling tells me that we will be missed down south, though. These March events tend to have big N/S gradients anyway.

I think the nam is just slowing everything down a bit. It still looks like it will drag the front down as the low moves down.

[FroYoBro]

Not liking what I'm reading this morning. Low stalls north. Arctic front stalls. Then the 06Z GFS comes out and is incredibly underwhelming for down here, along with the ensembles. Not a good trend.

Haven't you learned anything this winter? These things won't be figured out until a day or two out. 

 

That being said I do not feel very confident for Oregon in a late season event like this. 

[Jesse]

I think the nam is just slowing everything down a bit. It still looks like it will drag the front down as the low moves down.

 

I'm not too worried about it. We have had a solid winter down this way.

[Jesse]

Haven't you learned anything this winter? These things won't be figured out until a day or two out. 

 

That being said I do not feel very confident for Oregon in a late season event like this. 

 

Haven't you learned anything this winter? These things won't be figured out until a day or two out.

[FroYoBro]

Haven't you learned anything this winter? These things won't be figured out until a day or two out.

My confidence level for late season patterns won't be figured out until a day or two out? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm ready for spring and camping. Just going to wait for a Nina to have a good winter again up here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The air mass on the 12z so far is even colder in bc than the 6z. It looks like it's going to pound us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm ready for spring and camping. Just going to wait for a Nina to have a good winter again up here.

This could be a thing where the low stalls of our coast and wraps all the cold air around it and slam you with cold onshore flow with 1000ft snow level. I have seen this pattern evolve to that in the past.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z is not digging as hard sw. Still ok I would say. Looks about as cold out to 84 but just don't look as dynamic.

[Weather101]

This still looks good.. We are 2 days out so don't be worried if one model isn't AS good. I'm surprised there hasent been as much of crazy up and downs. I'll be cold and places will get snow. We just had snow up here and models came on to that solution 2 days before. Also it really just needs to be cold enough for snow. No need for crazy cold temps.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z is a let down.

[Weather101]

12z is a let down.

Explain? How?

[HighlandExperience]

12z is a let down.

 

I didn't think it looked horrible. Certainly not as cold for Oregon though.

 

WRF is running now, it will be interesting to see what it shows.

[Guest Monty67]

Explain? How?

Looks like its not as cold, less snow/moisture, warm air is fighting to push in here on Monday. Like most snow events around here, this has a lot of potential to go "sideways" quickly

[Weather101]

Looks like its not as cold, less snow/moisture, warm air is fighting to push in here on Monday. Like most snow events around here, this has a lot of potential to go "sideways" quickly

Hmm ok. One bad model run but there's been so many good ones so can't get hung up on that. If it starts becoming a trend then it's time too worry. We seen what happens it flip flops like this.

[Jesse]

Called it. I'm looking forward to a fairly average March weekend. Maybe a tad on the chilly side.

[Jesse]

Hmm ok. One bad model run but there's been so many good ones so can't get hung up on that. If it starts becoming a trend then it's time too worry. We seen what happens it flip flops like this.

Problem is, the 06z was pretty bad too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Explain? How?

The pattern is there, it just don't have the punch the last few runs had. Not as cold. But still snow.

[Weather101]

Problem is, the 06z was pretty bad too.

You can't get too hung up on yet. Just wait till tonight's model runs. i just saw a 3 day event and models 2 days before were pretty lame saying I'll be too warm. And is this the GFS? Didn't ppl say it's the best at picking up patterns but as we get closer like last weekend it drops the ball? So really nothing too worry about yet

[Guest Monty67]

Called it. I'm looking forward to a fairly average March weekend. Maybe a tad on the chilly side.

I haven't as of yet even had a great feeling about this coming "event" for up this way.

[HighlandExperience]

The pattern is there, it just don't have the punch the last few runs had. Not as cold. But still snow.

 

We still have a chance up here in Washington. It is increasingly looking like areas to the south won't get anything.

 

Sucks when things go from epic to mundane so quickly. Tonight's ECMWF will be very telling. If it considerably pulls back, it is time to pack our bags.

 

Off topic, but today is beautiful !

[Weather101]

We still have a chance up here in Washington. It is increasingly looking like areas to the south won't get anything.

 

Sucks when things go from epic to mundane so quickly. Tonight's ECMWF will be very telling. If it considerably pulls back, it is time to pack our bags.

 

Off topic, but today is beautiful !

Thank you. Great post. Wait till tonight to start packing it in.

[Weather101]

I haven't as of yet even had a great feeling about this coming "event" for up this way.

Might be the further north you are the better chances you have again

[Guest Monty67]

Might be the further north you are the better chances you have again

That is almost for certain at this point. The 6z ensemble mean is 7C warmer in Seattle than Vancouver, that's a big difference.

[Weather101]

That is almost for certain at this point. The 6z ensemble mean is 7C warmer in Seattle than Vancouver, that's a big difference.

Yeah true. I think we will see a bit of snow just how much and how cold is up in the air still.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wont even sweat before I see the euro. This is also prime time when the models do there flip flop for some reason. Always is the 70-90 hr period. Strange.

[Weather101]

Let's not all go crazy because there was one run without epicness. We just had like... Two days worth of runs all showing a great, possibly historic event. Will it play out that way? Most likely not but there were bound to be some sour-grape-runs thrown about. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more bad runs actually. Usually by 2 or 3 days out we've gone through an emotional rollercoaster. So far, we've been nothing but on the up.

Your smart. Nice post. Nothing to get hung up on YET.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I might even say the 12z is a major outlier. The overall pattern is there but not much cyclogenesis going on.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Canadian is pretty lame.

 

850's bottom out at just -5 for BLI.

[Jesse]

12z Canadian is pretty lame.

 

850's bottom out at just -5 for BLI.

Ouch.

[Guest Monty67]

12z Canadian is pretty lame.

 

850's bottom out at just -5 for BLI.

Has the Canadian ever really been onboard?