February 2014 in the PNW

[BLI snowman]

WRF is still basically totally dry for all of Western Washington through hour 60 (4AM Sunday.)

 

GFS looked like this at that point:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140228/00/gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Weird.

 

Honestly, WRF has been pathetically awful most of the winter with these events. I'd ignore it.

 

MM5 NAM of course shows plenty of precip on Sunday.

[catnip]

WRF is still basically totally dry for all of Western Washington through hour 60 (4AM Sunday.)

 

GFS looked like this at that point:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140228/00/gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Weird.

It has been doing that the last few runs. What gives?

[Snowman5678]

Honestly, WRF has been pathetically awful most of the winter with these events. I'd ignore it.

 

MM5 NAM of course shows plenty of precip on Sunday.

How did the MM5 NAM handle last weekends event? I forget.

[brody]

72 hr snow fall ending Monday http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022800/nw/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nw_25.png

[Phil]

You are a ****.  How did you get married.

 

Although, it shows nothing here so I could care less what happened either.

What's gotten into you? You've been attacking people all night.

[TT-SEA]

WRF might technically be dry on Saturday... but has copious clouds which usually means its closer to precip than you would think.    

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.39.0000.gif

[Jesse]

WRF might technically be dry on Saturday... but has copious clouds which usually means its closer to precip than you would think.    

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.39.0000.gif

 

Sunny where I'll be working on the coast!

[BLI snowman]

How did the MM5 NAM handle last weekends event? I forget.

 

Both the MM5 NAM and WRF did poorly, showing most of the precip missing Bellingham to the south on Sunday. Both of them really underestimated how slow moving the storm system would be, and thus badly underforecasted snow for the places that actually got it and overforecasted everywhere else.

[TT-SEA]

WRF has precip arriving around noon on Sunday in Seattle:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.66.0000.gif

 

 

And is very close to scouring out the cold air at that time:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.66.0000.gif

 

 

This looks so much like last weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Both the MM5 NAM and WRF did poorly, showing most of the precip missing Bellingham to the south on Sunday. Both of them really underestimated how slow moving the storm system would be, and thus badly underforecasted snow for the places that actually got it and overforecasted everywhere else.

 

I remember the WRF showed almost non-stop precip for the Seattle area from Saturday - Monday about this time last week.

 

It was WAY wetter last week than what its showing for this Saturday into Sunday morning.

[van city]

72 hr snow fall ending Monday http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014022800/nw/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nw_25.png

What does it show I can't see it?

[Weather101]

Looked at the last 2 pages it looks like Vancouver is looking good models hopefully keep up the trend! Thanks for giving news for us in BC on the south coast ! Appericate it

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows a quick snow event on Sunday afternoon and then rain by evening for Seattle.

 

This is going to end fast in the Seattle area.   Use last weekend as a reference point.   The cold air and snow is not going to magically get entrenched down here.  

[brody]

What does it show I can't see it?

D****T, why wont the images show up?

[Weather101]

WRF shows a quick snow event on Sunday afternoon and then rain by evening for Seattle.

 

This is going to end fast in the Seattle area. Use last weekend as a reference point. The cold air and snow is not going to magically get entrenched down here.

Should we see enhancement up here with outflow winds ?

[TT-SEA]

D****T, why wont the images show up?

 

What do you use?

 

Save them to your desktop and upload them here (resize for message boards):

 

http://postimage.org/

[TT-SEA]

Still hoping after this next week we are heading into a fairly spring-like pattern.    The models keep hinting at it... maybe when this intense cold stops dumping down into the middle of the country?

[brody]

What do you use?

 

Save them to your desktop and upload them here (resize for message boards):

 

http://postimage.org/

Ok, should I use thumb nail or hotlink for forums link to upload the images?

[HighlandExperience]

Personally I would be pretty happy to see 2 to 4 inches. Who cares if it turns to rain eventually. Snow is snow.. 

[jaya]

Honestly, WRF has been pathetically awful most of the winter with these events. I'd ignore it.

 

MM5 NAM of course shows plenty of precip on Sunday.

WRF May be overdoing the downslope drying.  Remember a couple weeks ago when it said no snow for Seattle due to the strong offshore flow?  May be a model issue.

[TT-SEA]

Should we see enhancement up here with outflow winds ?

 

WRF shows a low offshore Sunday night... southerly flow able to reach past Bellingham.     This is not as favorable up there.    It will definitely snow though.

[TT-SEA]

Ok, should I use thumb nail or hotlink for forums link to upload the images?

 

I resize for message boards... upload it... then click on the small image which makes it full size... then right click on that image and copy the URL... then paste into the picture link here.

[TT-SEA]

This is 1 a.m. Monday (Sunday night)

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.81.0000.gif

 

 

This went from being an amazing event... to an event that lasts a couple hours and its 45 degrees and raining by the end of the day.

[bainbridgekid]

The GEM has a ton of moisture this weekend but is to warm for any snow South of Bellingham. Really slams SW BC though,

[brody]

Ok let's try this againhttp://s8.postimg.org/o11ascao5/GFS_snow.pngCan you see it now?

 

IF not then f*** it 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is 1 a.m. Monday (Sunday night)

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.81.0000.gif

 

 

This went from being an amazing event... to an event that lasts a couple hours and its 45 degrees and raining by the end of the day.

It would be a home run if that low came into Astoria.

[Phil]

Ok let's try this againhttp://s8.postimg.org/o11ascao5/GFS_snow.pngCan you see it now?

 

IF not then f*** it

You got it.

[TT-SEA]

Ok let's try this againhttp://s8.postimg.org/o11ascao5/GFS_snow.pngCan you see it now?

 

IF not then f*** it 

 

That works... did you follow my method?

[brody]

That works... did you follow my method?

Yes I did , Ty Tim 

[brody]

While I'm at it http://s3.postimg.org/52b4xq2wz/2mtemp.png

[Weather101]

The GEM has a ton of moisture this weekend but is barely to warm for any snow South of Bellingham. Really slams SW BC though,

When does the snow start and end here?

[Brennan]

When does the snow start and end here?

You should really try being more proactive in your search for exactly what will happen in Vancouver. 

[HighlandExperience]

When does the snow start and end here?

 

No offense, but haven't you asked that question about 20 times today? 

[bainbridgekid]

When does the snow start and end here?

The Canadian shows snow starting in Vancouver Saturday afternoon and continuing till it turns to rain Sunday evening.

 

Almost identical timing as last weekend.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is 1 a.m. Monday (Sunday night)

 

 

 

This went from being an amazing event... to an event that lasts a couple hours and its 45 degrees and raining by the end of the day.

 

A low sitting in that spot would produce a lot of snow along the east side of Vancouver Island. Another 15-20" snowstorm in the Nanaimo area only a week later would be pretty impressive. Looks a better up in the Parksville region this time around. Going to be a lot less down here in Victoria, but the outflow looks a little better this time around and the air should be a bit drier going into it. Maybe we'll finally see that 1"+ snowfall that has eluded us for over 2 years.

[Weather101]

[Weather101]

You should really try being more proactive in your search for exactly what will happen in Vancouver.

No

[MossMan]

Ok, I still feel bad for talking crap about Seattle NWS discussions earlier today, but tonight's discussion was about as short as I have ever seen. I remember the days where that was my only resource back in the mid 90's. Well that and Harry Wapplers 5 day forecast

[The Swamp]

Ok, I still feel bad for talking crap about Seattle NWS discussions earlier today, but tonight's discussion was about as short as I have ever seen. I remember the days where that was my only resource back in the mid 90's. Well that and Harry Wapplers 5 day forecast

. Don't you wish you could cut and paste for your job every day?

[The Swamp]

I loved Harry Wappler. Andy too!