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February 2014 in the PNW

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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Deweydog
Deweydog

I also heard several comments about the cold.  Two of them were within about a minute of each other when I was in Fred Meyer.  I lost it.  I kicked a pregnant lady in the stomach and knocked over a To

Brennan
Brennan

Honestly though, I could drive an hour from my very own home in Bellingham and see 18 inch snowfalls about 10 times a winter if it was THAT special... It takes 60 minutes to drive to Heather Meadows a

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

Posted
Posted

MM5 NAM based on the 00Z NAM gives Seattle a total of 0.00 inches of snow through Monday.  

Surprisingly it still shows some snow here tomorrow night.  And No, I do not think it will happen.  But like I said nothing to lose on rooting for the biggest outlier.  Either way it will be very wet soon and work will not be fun.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Surprisingly it still shows some snow here tomorrow night.  And No, I do not think it will happen.  But like I said nothing to lose on rooting for the biggest outlier.  Either way it will be very wet soon and work will not be fun.

 

 

Hopefully the wet is only for a few days.

 

And I think the best chance of snow is tomorrow and tomorrow night out there.   Looks like too much east wind over here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

Posted
Posted

Hopefully the wet is only for a few days.

 

And I think the best chance of snow is tomorrow and tomorrow night out there.   Looks like too much east wind over here.

If I see one wet snowflake tomorrow at any point I will be very shocked, but also will have a little bit of new respect for the NAM.  

 

Offshore flow through Chehalis Gap is my only hope for that.

 

It would be amazing to go from a high of 65 today to maybe a snowflake or two tomorrow though.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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If I see one wet snowflake tomorrow at any point I will be very shocked, but also will have a little bit of new respect for the NAM.  

 

Offshore flow through Chehalis Gap is my only hope for that.

 

It would be amazing to go from a high of 65 today to maybe a snowflake or two tomorrow though.

 

 

You had 65 today?  Sweet!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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If I see one wet snowflake tomorrow at any point I will be very shocked, but also will have a little bit of new respect for the NAM.  

 

Offshore flow through Chehalis Gap is my only hope for that.

 

It would be amazing to go from a high of 65 today to maybe a snowflake or two tomorrow though.

I can never remember the year but back in the 90's the day before the event happened there was a strong east wind all day with temps in the upper 40's low 50's. That night a juicy storm came in and because of evaporative cooling it snowed around the entire area. It was not even in any forecast and it snowed 8 inches! That's why sometimes when I see the models showing nothing for snow I think about that day. NEVER underestimate what any kind of dry offshore flow can do.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

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I can never remember the year but back in the 90's the day before the event happened there was a strong east wind all day with temps in the upper 40's low 50's. That night a juicy storm came in and because of evaporative cooling it snowed around the entire area. It was not even in any forecast and it snowed 8 inches! That's why sometimes when I see the models showing nothing for snow I think about that day. NEVER underestimate what any kind of dry offshore flow can do.

I agree to a point.  Sometimes I wish the models still were not very good so stuff like that could seem to happen.  But, with so many models that are better than way back then, we already know the most likely outcomes well before.  I still think some areas will do better than progged but with no consistency from any model it will be  a crapshoot. 

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Guest Monty67

Guest Monty67

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45 with a DP of 16 here and a stiff North wind.

 

With the exception of Monday, it's been a pretty spectacular weather week since Saturday.

 

Actually still a bit of snow in the shadiest spots.

Temp is down to 34F here. Still have solid snow cover with 6-8" on the north side of my house.
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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This just keeps getting warmer... the 00Z WRF has Seattle way too warm for snow by 7 a.m. on Sunday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.39.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
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This just keeps getting warmer... the 00Z WRF has Seattle way too warm for snow by 7 a.m. on Sunday.

 

 

More moisture tomorrow night though for some light snow for a number of areas.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.36.0000.gif

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The 00z would not take much more of a southern trend of the lows coming in to change the forecast. The euro hinted at another surge of cold air for Tuesday a few runs back. Something to watch.

 

 

On what planet do the lows trend south of what the models are showing?    Not Earth.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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If I see one wet snowflake tomorrow at any point I will be very shocked, but also will have a little bit of new respect for the NAM.

 

Offshore flow through Chehalis Gap is my only hope for that.

 

It would be amazing to go from a high of 65 today to maybe a snowflake or two tomorrow though.

No offense, but weren't you just trashing me and calling the GEFS the "gold standard"?

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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On what planet do the lows trend south of what the models are showing? Not Earth. :)

The big Sunday/Monday US storm trended 200 miles south today..

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

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No offense, but weren't you just trashing me and calling the GEFS the "gold standard"?

Nope.  I was just questioning the big discrepancy between the ensembles and the OP GFS as of last night.  And I appreciated your explanation why, but still questioned it.  I haven't trashed you in quite awhile BTW, your contributions have been great lately, However, to us laymans when we see a big difference between models/ensembles it takes a lot to keep us from questioning it.  Especially when we are all looking for the great white buffalo(movie buffs will know what that means).

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GHweatherChris Grand Master

GHweatherChris

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Just looking at the SPC hourly upper air analysis and the hourly Hoquiam soundings, I am struggling to see how in the hell any model (NAM included) could be showing any frozen precip tomorrow/tomorrow night.  This trough fromthe north must have at least some strength in it to reflect it to a point i guess.  

 

Just gonna have to wait and GOLU I guess.

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Brennan Rising Star

Brennan

Posted
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Don’t tell me this post ISN’T right for this thread. Most of the intellectual discussion on here the past several days hasn’t been about February in the PNW... So here we go! Plus it won’t get views in the other topic :)


 


The SUPERBOWL video i put together of mine and my Dad’s party. Guess which one is me.... lol


 


 



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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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Looks like the low level cold air has made it into the lower columbia basin and E. Gorge...E. Wind howling at the west end of the gorge. 

 

44 here with light rain.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Brian_in_Leavenworth Veteran

Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Don’t tell me this post ISN’T right for this thread. Most of the intellectual discussion on here the past several days hasn’t been about February in the PNW... So here we go! Plus it won’t get views in the other topic :)

 

The SUPERBOWL video i put together of mine and my Dad’s party. Guess which one is me.... lol

 

 

 

Thanks Brennan.  I love those kinds of fan reaction videos.  I had to watch the Superbowl at work on a computer.  Fortunately, the streaming broadcast was very good, but it sucked having to watc it by myself.  This is the kind of party I wish I had been able to go to, so watching these videos makes me feel like I kind of was there.

 

Light snow here in Leavenworth.  The snow tonight through Sunday night will probably be the biggest snow of the season.  We have had a lot of snow since late January, but the most for any one storm was about 6 inches.  They are calling for one inch today, 2-4 tonight, 5-9 Sunday, 4-8 Sunday night, and 1-3 Monday.  Een the low end of those gives us a foot.

 

Winter was late here, after a good start in early December, but it was worth the wait.  I just wonder how high the snow would have piled up had this been December/January, when there would not have been the daytime melt and rainfall that we have had in February.

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