February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

I think KC is in a great spot for this storm...Gary Lezak was talking about this in his blog today.

[Niko]

SEMI needs a further NW track I think to be in the good snows, otherwise accumulations will be low, if any.

[Geos]

Latest disco from LOT.

 

 

FAIRLY UNIFORM GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR A WEST-EAST BAND OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL EASTWARD ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE...AS WELL AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX (ACTUALLY SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEF
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BETWEEN LEFT EXIT OF APPROACHING JET STREAK
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF STRENGTHENING OVER PRE-EXISTING JET MAXIMA
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION). STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PUSHING 0.50 INCHES INT CENTRAL IL BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME INDICATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING PRODUCING 0.25 QPF AMOUNTS IN
THAT NARROW AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. BEST JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AREA
REMAINS WITHIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH EVENTUALLY
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING SNOW TO TAPER OFF. BLENDED QPF AS NOTED
COMBINED WITH 12:1 TO 14:1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS THROUGH THE EVENT
YIELDS A DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGING FROM 3-3.5" AROUND
ROCKFORD...TO A STRIPE OF 6-7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS
OF COUNTIES OR SO. THIS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER WEATHER DESK AMOUNTS...THOUGH ULTIMATELY MAY VERY WELL SEE A
TIGHTER GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR
LAKE-ENHANCEMENT INTO NORTHEAST IL...THOUGH NOT A PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE SET-UP AS IN ADDITION TO H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10/-12C THE
LAKE DOES HAVE CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER OVER THE WESTERN SHORE AREAS
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL COLD WATER TEMPS. WINDS DO LOOK TO GUST ABOVE
20 KT AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. SNOWFALL THEN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THE IL/IN STATE LINE
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. CONTEMPLATED WATCH ISSUANCE FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH START OF EVENT STILL LATE 4TH/5TH PERIODS AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO THE SOUTH/EAST HAVE DECIDED
NOT TO HOIST HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

 

 

Going to say 3-4" sounds good here.

[Tom]

LOT not to impressed with LES set up...oh well, seems like a 3-6" synoptic event is what we'll get.

[DominicR]

LOT:

 

 

[Tom]

I can go for another 5" event...that would boost snow depth past a Foot so I'll be happy.

[DominicR]

GFS is a bit drier up here. Still solid down south ecp in KS/N MO.

[winterfreak]

Nice hit on GFS.

[DominicR]

Nice hit on GFS.

 

Yeah you do pretty well. I would not be surprised to see some 12+ totals over there by you. N MO/S IA does well to. Omaha very close to the heavy snow but they should get at least around 6 inches.

[winterfreak]

Yeah you do pretty well. I would not be surprised to see some 12+ totals over there by you. N MO/S IA does well to. Omaha very close to the heavy snow but they should get at least around 6 inches.

I figure it's well deserved for these parts. Local NWS thinks it's a doozy. I think all of us from say Omaha and points to the south will be happy.

[gabel23]

Points west of there not so happy, just not my year around my area. Have been on the edge of every storm we have had. Congrats to those that get hit.

[Geos]

Next 72 hours on the GFS

 

[DominicR]

I figure it's well deserved for these parts. Local NWS thinks it's a doozy. I think all of us from say Omaha and points to the south will be happy.

 

GFS gives u another solid 6+ next weekend to and crushes N MO again, IL. This one finally really wounds up.

[Geos]

Hey, can everyone see the Wxbell maps? 

[DominicR]

Hey, can everyone see the Wxbell maps? 

 

Nope.

[Tom]

Yes, I can see the maps you posted...

[FV-Mike]

special weather statement issued for northern Illinois.

[Geos]

Nope.

 

 

Yes, I can see the maps you posted...

 

It seems that current subscribers are the only ones that can see them today.

 

This is what I posted.

 

[midwest buildit]

i can not see them

[Geos]

i can not see them

 

The above image is saved. I know that is visible. 

 

Some kind of bug in their system today I guess. 

[Tom]

Phil Schwartz hyping this storm up saying WSW may be issued and saying significant snows are likely area wide.  He showed his future cast model and it had dark blues all over the area.  Seems conflicting from what we saw from the GFS/NAM, it even showed heavier snows up in S WI. 

[East Dubzz]

WxBell is no longer allowing people to directly link their maps to other sites, and the same goes with screen captures. Don't want people outside of their subscribers seeing the maps.

[Tom]

I figured they were going to do that sooner or later...

[Niko]

The incoming storm approaches the region Tuesday, allowing for cloudier skies and temperatures again in the middle 20s. Snow sweeps into the area Tuesday night and will continue through Wednesday for the Detroit area.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_02021945_hd29-1.jpg

 

Snow accumulations have the potential to be significant, with totals ranging from 3 inches to more than 6 inches southwest of the city.

In the wake of the storm, temperatures will reach highs in the teens with lows in the single digits. The edge of a storm could bring the next chance of snow for the end of the weekend.

 

Edit: Very curious to see how this storm will play out. I am pretty sure the models will have a better idea on this storm starting tonight and especially tomorrow.

[james1976]

this is a touch north:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

[Geos]

WxBell is no longer allowing people to directly link their maps to other sites, and the same goes with screen captures. Don't want people outside of their subscribers seeing the maps.

 

Well nothing will stop saved images. 

 

I heard it is due to more along the lines of server bandwidth issues. The images that go out to different sites, the higher the bandwidth will be used on their end.

[Tom]

Phil's Microcast had a general 4-5" from the WI/IL border down to I-80, more SE up to 10" in IN

[Tom]

00z NAM smokes KS into C IL...

 

[DominicR]

3-5 inches for ORD. Nice stripe of 8-14 inches from KSC to Cleveland, OH.

[winterfreak]

The NAM is beautiful.

[Money]

GFS is coming north this run.

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00zgfs_zps775a8af4.png

[DominicR]

Yes it's better over here and stronger to.

[DominicR]

We have a whole day to go before storm even gets going tom night in Plains so something to think about to.

[Geos]

Just a brush here on the GFS. Liking the 3-4" call this far north. 

 

Chicago could pull 5" out of this.

[DominicR]

Just a brush here on the GFS. Liking the 3-4" call this far north. 

 

Chicago could pull 5" out of this.

 

Yeah if u compare 18z and 00z snow maps you can see its a bit snowier up here more like 4-5 inches here instead of 3-4 and that 6+ band in C IL/IN is more wider and stronger. Overall, slightly furthur NW and stronger. The snow won't get going until around dinner Tuesday so we have a long time to go see how rest of 00z runs and tommorow do.

[DominicR]

ABC 7 Phill model showing general 4-5 inches even up to the border with 6-8 amounts across far southern LOT areas.

 

00z GFS on left and 18z GFS on right.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Starting to look like a big ol' storm of nothing up here. But we do get the cold. Yippie

[DominicR]

Starting to look like a big ol' storm of nothing up here. But we do get the cold. Yippie

 

You should be able to clip a few inches as of right now.

[East Dubzz]

You should be able to clip a few inches as of right now.

Doubt it. Dry air will probably win out, it usually does.