Tom Posted April 28, 2015 Report Share Posted April 28, 2015 As we get ready to flip the calendar into May, will the above normal regime continue into this month? Certainly looks like the weather pattern will continue into May. The LRC says a -EPO pattern should develop sometime this month and the Euro Weeklies were showing this as well. However, when you get later into the year the reaction is different but the same, According to the LRC, it should cycle through. Here is what a -EPO suggests this month: http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neg_05may.png I gotta say, if this wet pattern holds on, this summer may be a carbon copy of what last year's summer looked like and the JMA/JAMSTEC have been hinting at this for a few months now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2015 CFSv2 showing a cooler than normal southern half of the U.S. where I'm sure there will be plenty of rainfall... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2015 Growing season should be getting a real boost with warmer temps and widespread rainfall across the central CONUS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 29, 2015 Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 GFS is very wet for all next week and following weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 29, 2015 Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 Nice to see that wet signal backing up into areas west of the subforum. Late season snows in the mountains are really beneficial going into summer. Forecasted 60s here Friday and Saturday and 70s on Sunday - will see how that works out with the increased chance of rain. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 29, 2015 Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 GFS is very wet for all next week and following weekend. It goes to show you our dry winters really haven't meant jack when it comes to precip here in the spring and summer. A dry winter might leave an area an inch or two below normal in moisture, a dry spring and summer will quickly add up to 5-10" of below normal moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 12z Euro agrees...smack dab in the middle of the U.S. where it is needed the most for agricultural reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 29, 2015 Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 12z Euro agrees...smack dab in the middle of the U.S. where it is needed the most for agricultural reasons.Maybe next Winter we will see some precip maps like this. Ha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 Maybe next Winter we will see some precip maps like this. HaWould be nice! Let's see if a mature El Nino can bring up the moisture. Some long range models already showing above normal precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2015 GFS/EURO Ensembles starting to indicate a +NAO pattern Week 1-2....it would correlate to nice ridging in the central CONUS.... http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/NAO/NAOpos_05may.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2015 CPC Updated May Temp/Precip Outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 CPC Updated May Temp/Precip Outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gifLooks like an El Nino in a way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Accuweather with their Summer Forecast...not sure if I buy into the hot/dry pattern in KS/NE, the northern Plains have a better chance, but not where the wet pattern has already started. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_04291708_summer-2015-highlights.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 1, 2015 Report Share Posted May 1, 2015 Little cool today, but still pretty nice out. About 57° currently. Chilly morning with patchy frost early today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 2, 2015 Report Share Posted May 2, 2015 The weather is great and should remain that way indefinitely. This happened two years ago today Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 2, 2015 Report Share Posted May 2, 2015 I remember that storm very well. The places that got accumulating snow were in the 80s just a couple days prior to the storm, and I believe there was accumulating snow as far south as Arkansas. Just an incredibly rare event, probably won't happen again in our lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2015 Nice to see Lake Michigan continue to fill up with water and raise the levels even higher than last year. I recall a few years ago, boat launches where so high up you had to climb up onto them when you launched your boat at Diversey Harbor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Reach 75° today. Cooled off nicely this evening due to the dry atmosphere. Leaves are finally pushing out on the trees - and at full force! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Yuck! 10 out of the next forecast periods(day/night) have thunderstorms likely in my grid forecast. Let's see how much rain we'll get this week. All these storms are probably going to keep the severe weather threat down as the atmosphere is going to get worked over pretty much daily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 A surprise rainfall this morning, caused by a weak vort moving over the area, is ruining my big garden-planting day. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Interesting article regarding Sun Spots and the trend in our current solar cycle. Wonder how much of a role it will play for next Winter and also the next 10-20+ years. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/02/the-sun-is-almost-completely-blank/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 The Sun is going to Zzzzzzzz.... http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Im up to 85 right now. Very warm. Hoping for a tstorm later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 12z Euro Ensembles...Ridge goes wild Day 10-15....LRC's warm phase continues.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Wow, marginal risk today, only to get 3 severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as a tornado warning in my county. Unreal. Picked up about 1.5" rain, and got some solid hail. Reports of baseball sized hail in south lincoln today. Crazy how this unfolded! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 It's definitely a much-improved pattern for the plains states. I got some modest rainfall(0.30") overnight from a weakening line of storms. The better storms this evening may track south of my area, but I should get some more solid rainfall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Kind of surprised there was never a Severe t-storm watch issued either. Maybe not for Nebraska as for the most part the storms were rather "pulsey", but further northeast of us, there was a pretty good line of storms that formed. The SPC said they would watch that area for a possible watch but never issued one. Wonder what they wanted to see before they would have?!Wow, marginal risk today, only to get 3 severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as a tornado warning in my county. Unreal. Picked up about 1.5" rain, and got some solid hail. Reports of baseball sized hail in south lincoln today. Crazy how this unfolded! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Interesting just noticed they have expanded the slight risk for severe storm's late afternoon into the evening to cover my area. hasn't been much day time heating yet have my doubts were get any severe storm's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 I got .93" last night. Had a strong storm move through with a lot of wind and lightning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 You're lucky we got hosed last night here few rumbles of Thunder all we gother last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Line of strong storm last night faded by the time they got this far east. 0.30" of rain from late yesterday afternoon though. Warmest day of the year yesterday at 77°.\ In the upper 60s now, but a wind just started onshore. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Using the East Asian Theory, there is a Typhoon expected to hit the Philipines over the weekend. Expect a Eastern Ridge to pop 6-10 days thereafter. 12z Euro Ensembles agree...Day 10-15 Mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 5, 2015 Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 I pickedup another 0.96" of rain overnight. Just to the south, closer to Iowa City, a band of 3+ inches fell. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 Holy Buckets of Rain....Euro EPS....wetter pattern shall continue... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 5, 2015 Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yes Please. We will take any and all of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 Had my first taste of Thunderstorms here in AZ Sunday night/Monday. Reminds me of the Monsoon season that gets going here in late July. We had a little over 1.0" of rain that produced flash flooding, intense lightning displays and powerful winds that kicked up a wall of dust. I was sitting outside on the balcony and I could see the wall of dust moving towards me and then....boom! Where I am located, I have unrestricted views and could see for miles in either direction. The beauty of nature continues to amaze me when you can see a cumulonimbus cloud in the distance blow up into a huge storm and the anvil cloud tops reaching high up into the jet stream. Spending what should be my last week here and heading back home soon. Not really looking forward to the mosquitoes and bugs! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 5, 2015 Report Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yes Please. We will take any and all of it. Nobody needs 9" of rain, unless you're in California Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Been hanging in the 40s most of the day here. Up to 0.83" of rain for the week so far. 0.53" today - mainly before 12pm. @NE Jeremy - and it someone did get 9" of rain in California it will cause all kinds of other problems. Would be a lot of runoff with the dry bare ground - unless it was over several weeks. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Been hanging in the 40s most of the day here. Up to 0.83" of rain for the week so far. 0.53" today - mainly before 12pm. @NE Jeremy - and it someone did get 9" of rain in California it will cause all kinds of other problems. Would be a lot of runoff with the dry bare ground - unless it was over several weeks.Yeah i know The map that Tom showed that had 9" of rain was over a 32 day period to June, so hopefully most of that would sink into the ground or go into the lakes and reservoirs out there in California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 18z gfs smokes us with overnight thunderstorms.......up to .6" so far and planted a 165 hills of potatoes last Saturday.....soak baby soak! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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