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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Folks, as we move firmly past the midpoint of the year, it's about that time I start taking a more in depth look into the cold season  What are the models showing for this Autumn??  Should we expect another year of extremes across our country??  With our Sub Forum placed smack dab in the middle of the nation, the heartland of the nation could very well be placed in the action zone.  The talk about a developing La Nina this autumn is almost a certainty based on every single climate model.  It's actually quite interesting to see all the model agreement wrt to the Central PAC ocean SST's.  With that being said, do the oceans create the pattern or does the LRC dictate it?  That is the epitome of the chicken vs egg theory.  Anyway, let's discuss as I'm sure there are a number of you who are interested.

The latest JMA seasonal came in the other day and is suggesting the ridge out west to continue and poke up north along W NAMER and the counter reaction would be for a trough across the eastern CONUS.  The ridge up near SE Canada is a prime location for tropical threats in the ATL this year to hit the EC.  Gotta pay attn to this as it could be a big deal in the early Autumn season.

Sept...

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D0500_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D0500_gl0.png

 

October....the jet stream fires up across AK and NW Canada along with Blocking in eastern Canada should lead into a favorable wet start to the Autumn season in the drought stricken regions of the PAC NW/N Rockies.

 

 

3.png

 

 

Temp/Precip....

Y202107.D0500_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D0500_gl0.png

 

 

SST's for the month of Oct...east-based La Nina is growing and holding steady while the N PAC is rather warm.  The continuation of the warm pool off the west coast of the U.S is dominant and of course the EC.  What does all this mean??  I believe it will create another wx pattern of extremes across the CONUS.  

Y202107.D0500_gls.png

 

My gut feeling about Autumn pattern as the jet strengthens and blocking prevails, the PAC NW will see much of the drought beaten down.  Fast start to Winter up in the Rockies this year based on the data I'm seeing.  I'm both very curious and anxious to see how the new LRC sets up this Autumn as the sun sets up across the N Pole.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Polar Vortex will be making its presence early and often across N Canada this Oct/Nov.  I'm fully expecting to see North America to have another fast start to winter and expansion of snow cover this cold season.  Something really fascinating in terms of wx extremes will be setting up this season over the entirety of the Northern Hemisphere.  Blocking, Blocking and more Blocking....if this summer is any indication of this, then we are in for some fascinating wx patterns down the road.   Oh, ya...I'm sure we'll see a SE Ridge this Autumn and I think it comes sometime in Nov, my guess is in early/mid Nov.  

Finally, the CFSv2 map below shows the rapid cooling expected across the C PAC ocean and bottom out sometime in Oct/Nov...

1.gif

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Really interested in this topic as after the trouble the Southern Plains got into last year, we are all experiencing some elevated anxiety.  
I’m worried about another Texas freeze and shut down.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. 

This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter.

Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

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I just don’t want to live without power like I did last winter.   It just about put me in the hospital.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 7/13/2021 at 7:28 PM, Andie said:

I just don’t want to live without power like I did last winter.   It just about put me in the hospital.  

Yeah, we definitely don't want that, but if I were a hospital, brushing my staff up hypothermia treatment would be a good thing about now.

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Hmmm, this is quite interesting to say the least....no wonder the CFSv2 and UKMET/ECMWF show massive blocking setting up this cold season.  If the Strat plays ball this year, alongside an easterly QBO, all systems will be a "GO" for a blockbuster winter across the U.S.

 

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1415716287007784962

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  • 2 weeks later...
10 hours ago, Madtown said:

BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!!

plz

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Say it ain't...SNOW...just like in recent years of late, parts of the N Rockies/B.C. could be seeing the return of early snows as we get closer to the 1st month of Met Autumn.  The Euro weeklies are beginning to sniff out a good possibility of strong troughs targeting this region beginning late Aug into early Sept.  A classic signal the La Nina pattern will be setting up.  I'm fully anticipating a parade of storms to fire up during the month of Sept into Oct across W Canada/PAC NW/N Rockies.

1.png

 

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Dewpoint down to 54F at DSM. It hasn't felt this comfortable since mid June. I know Aug can still be hot/humid and even early Sept but it seems we've turned the corner heading for Fall with decreasing sun angle / daylight and avg temps. The one thing I love about the change of seasons (I'd prefer winter 365) is it makes you appreciate the season(s) you love (FALL/WINTER) when you go through a warm/dry summer.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Dewpoint down to 54F at DSM. It hasn't felt this comfortable since mid June. I know Aug can still be hot/humid and even early Sept but it seems we've turned the corner heading for Fall with decreasing sun angle / daylight and avg temps. The one thing I love about the change of seasons (I'd prefer winter 365) is it makes you appreciate the season(s) you love (FALL/WINTER) when you go through a warm/dry summer.

You couldn't have said it any better Grizz!  The balance of the seasons that nature produces in the MW/GL's is the main reason why I will always have a footprint here in the MW.  I'm grateful to experience living in the desert of Arizona and escape the ugly wx in the Spring months that happens more often that not.  I love seeing diversity in the wx but esp right around this time of year when you slowly begin to appreciate the seasonal changes.  I'm sure you are already planning on stocking up on wood this year as is @Madtownand folks up north.  I'm curious to hear what the ol' timers are saying about predictions of the upcoming cold season based an natures signals.

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Some cool thoughts on this warm and muggy morning...is this a potential indicator of what lies ahead???  First signs of Autumn are upon us for those way up north along the Brooks Range in the great state of Alaska.  Kinda early for this I'd have to say...nevertheless, I'm impressed to see what nature has in store.  

Quote

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

AKZ206-101600-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon,
and Franklin Bluffs
239 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...Slushy Snow Accumulations over Atigun Pass Beginning Wednesday...

Light snow is possible over the higher terrain of the Central and
Eastern Brooks Range beginning Wednesday. This includes over
Atigun Pass and further north along the Dalton Highway.
Any accumulations are anticipated to be light and slushy with the
highest amounts of up to 2 inches near Atigun Pass. Travelers
should be prepared for slushy conditions at times.

 

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On 8/1/2021 at 11:44 PM, Grizzcoat said:

Dewpoint down to 54F at DSM. It hasn't felt this comfortable since mid June. I know Aug can still be hot/humid and even early Sept but it seems we've turned the corner heading for Fall with decreasing sun angle / daylight and avg temps. The one thing I love about the change of seasons (I'd prefer winter 365) is it makes you appreciate the season(s) you love (FALL/WINTER) when you go through a warm/dry summer.

Well we haven’t turned the corner yet! Some of the soupiest, sultry conditions of the summer the last few days! Dews in the 80°s at times with heat index values well over the century mark!

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

Some cool thoughts on this warm and muggy morning...is this a potential indicator of what lies ahead???  First signs of Autumn are upon us for those way up north along the Brooks Range in the great state of Alaska.  Kinda early for this I'd have to say...nevertheless, I'm impressed to see what nature has in store.  

 

A month early ish...?

Thats pretty early to me too.

Seeing this cool rainy pattern pop back up down here this month is a rare thing too.

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Here's a little tease from Wx Bell's Joe D' Aleo's model that does a pretty good job forecasting.  He implements numerous variables into his model and has a pretty good track record that I can remember from previous seasons.  Fast start???  Would be nice.  Here is the Dec temp anomaly...what is noticeable and noteworthy, is the warm signal near Greenland and Alaska....another year where we see a west-based Greenland Block???  Sign me up.

4.png

 

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Looking at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday, once we get into Sept and the unofficial end to Summer around Labor Day weekend, the upper air pattern looks blocked up across western Canada and the western U.S. while there is a growing eastern CONUS trough????

What about precip???  As the jet revs up I'd imagine we will be seeing many many storm systems track across the N Sub as the La Nina pattern begins to take shape way up north.  Signs of hope???  I'm digging this signal as it mirrors what the JMA weeklies showed yesterday as well.  I got a good feeling about this Autumn.

 

1.gif

 

Precip through Sep 22nd (Autumn Equinox)....

5.png

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Care for another sneak preview into late Autumn and early Winter???  This signal has been showing up for several runs in a row and to see the multi-model mean showing this agreement provides considerable clues for the upcoming cold season.  Early Strat warming???  Greenland Block in December?  

 

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The JMA seasonal came in the other day and I'll put together a post later today when I have more time....let me tell you, the 2021-2022 LRC is undoubtedly going to feature an impressive Greenland Block and -EPO.  The model is also suggesting a fired up W PAC Typhoon season.  My goodness, this Autumn could really get nasty...that's all for now.

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As promised, albeit late, here are some maps off the recent JMA seasonal that is suggesting an interesting Autumn season for many of us in this Sub Forum.  The model has been steadfast on the idea that the 500mb over the CONUS to show weakness across the East and a ridge over the West to kick off the 1st month of met Autumn.  It also appears Autumn/Winter will get off to another FAST start way up north in Alaska and N. Canada, likely laying down the foundation off "home brewed" early season cold.

 

1.png

 

Temp/Precip....Overall, not an overwhelmingly cool or warm signal, except for maybe the central Plains.  I could see this warm pocket shift west due to the blocking pattern the model is suggesting.  Nice signal for a Greenland Block in the 500mb map above. 

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

 

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

Now, here is where I believe things will get quite interesting as we see a potential glimpse into the new LRC pattern for the Northern Hemisphere.  For the second run in a row, the model is suggesting a hyper active W PAC to fire up.  Re-curving Typhoons?  I think last year and even the year prior it was non-existent.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that was a non season.  Anyway, look at the rising motion in the month of OCT over E ASIA and the Philippines/Thailand/Australia regions...using this data, one can imagine that the East Asian rule would correlate a trough-like pattern in the east, right???   

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

Well, low and behold, here is the 500mb pattern...Boom!  Not to mention, check out the Fierce Greenland Block...that is going to be a common theme for the 2021-22 LRC regime!

 

2.png

 

Temp...similar signal as the month of Sept but I do NOT believe it is cold enough...this will prob trend colder during next months run.

 

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

 

Finally, the month of November just gave me the chills...a continuation of rising motion over the W PAC, W NAMER Ridge (-EPO), slightly -NAO all support a strong signal Winter will come on early for the eastern CONUS.

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...you can gauge for yourself that a broad area east of the Rockies is "normal" which I firmly believe the model may be running to warm and should be colder.  I'm digging the wet signal in the SW.  I'm sure there will be periods of warmth and the month of Oct is when I see periods of this to happen.  I just got this funny feeling we will see the jet stream really fire up towards the end of Sep into Oct allowing for storms to cut and allow for warm periods but not overly long lasting.  I see many transient warmer periods if this model is correct.

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

I'm curious if the wet signal out in the SW will be a clue that storms cut underneath the ridge out west.  If so, this would be a classic -EPO pattern and during the heart of Winter, you can bet that it will provide a solid winter for those areas, esp with the immense high lat blocking signal the climate models are suggesting.  The intense Monsoon season ongoing in the desert SW, IMHO, is a definitive clue to me, that the cold season will be filled with blessings of Snow in the inter-mountain west and SW mountains.  Let's see how this all sets up but for the sake of the drought regions in the west, if this wet pattern sets up in Nov, it will bode very well for the western CONUS.

Also, notice the trough signal right over Japan...this is a solid Long Range clue that the east will indeed experience more of a trough than a ridge pattern.  So, will the SER ever fire up this season???  Based on what I'm seeing, the general idea is that it could be "muted" this season and possibly stay put over the southern states instead.  I, personally, am getting a bit antsy to see how this all evolves and to see what nature has in store for the U.S.

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

SST 3-month anomaly...

Y202108.D0900_gls.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I'm really hoping for an early fall and early winter. Its been a hot summer. We've had a lot of warm falls in recent years if I'm not mistaken.

Actually, we’ve had cool to cold Autumn’s but then a warm start to the 1st half of Winter and then delayed Spring.  Can we just have Winter start in late Nov and last through Feb?  I know it’s a big ASK for nature to align everything just right.  I’d be happy with a cold and snowy holiday and followed by a brief Jan thaw.  Some wishful thinking…

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Actually, we’ve had cool to cold Autumn’s but then a warm start to the 1st half of Winter and then delayed Spring.  Can we just have Winter start in late Nov and last through Feb?  I know it’s a big ASK for nature to align everything just right.  I’d be happy with a cold and snowy holiday and followed by a brief Jan thaw.  Some wishful thinking…

Yeah it seems like winters haven't really got goin til January and last thru April over recent years.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

As promised, albeit late, here are some maps off the recent JMA seasonal that is suggesting an interesting Autumn season for many of us in this Sub Forum.  The model has been steadfast on the idea that the 500mb over the CONUS to show weakness across the East and a ridge over the West to kick off the 1st month of met Autumn.  It also appears Autumn/Winter will get off to another FAST start way up north in Alaska and N. Canada, likely laying down the foundation off "home brewed" early season cold.

 

1.png

 

Temp/Precip....Overall, not an overwhelmingly cool or warm signal, except for maybe the central Plains.  I could see this warm pocket shift west due to the blocking pattern the model is suggesting.  Nice signal for a Greenland Block in the 500mb map above. 

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

 

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

Now, here is where I believe things will get quite interesting as we see a potential glimpse into the new LRC pattern for the Northern Hemisphere.  For the second run in a row, the model is suggesting a hyper active W PAC to fire up.  Re-curving Typhoons?  I think last year and even the year prior it was non-existent.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that was a non season.  Anyway, look at the rising motion in the month of OCT over E ASIA and the Philippines/Thailand/Australia regions...using this data, one can imagine that the East Asian rule would correlate a trough-like pattern in the east, right???   

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

Well, low and behold, here is the 500mb pattern...Boom!  Not to mention, check out the Fierce Greenland Block...that is going to be a common theme for the 2021-22 LRC regime!

 

2.png

 

Temp...similar signal as the month of Sept but I do NOT believe it is cold enough...this will prob trend colder during next months run.

 

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

 

Finally, the month of November just gave me the chills...a continuation of rising motion over the W PAC, W NAMER Ridge (-EPO), slightly -NAO all support a strong signal Winter will come on early for the eastern CONUS.

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...you can gauge for yourself that a broad area east of the Rockies is "normal" which I firmly believe the model may be running to warm and should be colder.  I'm digging the wet signal in the SW.  I'm sure there will be periods of warmth and the month of Oct is when I see periods of this to happen.  I just got this funny feeling we will see the jet stream really fire up towards the end of Sep into Oct allowing for storms to cut and allow for warm periods but not overly long lasting.  I see many transient warmer periods if this model is correct.

Y202108.D0900_gl2.png

I'm curious if the wet signal out in the SW will be a clue that storms cut underneath the ridge out west.  If so, this would be a classic -EPO pattern and during the heart of Winter, you can bet that it will provide a solid winter for those areas, esp with the immense high lat blocking signal the climate models are suggesting.  The intense Monsoon season ongoing in the desert SW, IMHO, is a definitive clue to me, that the cold season will be filled with blessings of Snow in the inter-mountain west and SW mountains.  Let's see how this all sets up but for the sake of the drought regions in the west, if this wet pattern sets up in Nov, it will bode very well for the western CONUS.

Also, notice the trough signal right over Japan...this is a solid Long Range clue that the east will indeed experience more of a trough than a ridge pattern.  So, will the SER ever fire up this season???  Based on what I'm seeing, the general idea is that it could be "muted" this season and possibly stay put over the southern states instead.  I, personally, am getting a bit antsy to see how this all evolves and to see what nature has in store for the U.S.

Y202108.D0900_gl0.png

 

SST 3-month anomaly...

Y202108.D0900_gls.png

Cosgrove has been hinting to this a bit.he also strongly concern about East coast hurricane threats in september and october.

 

 

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For what has been the "upteenth" time in a row, the CFS has held steadfast on the idea of a very good indication that Snow will begin falling and overspreading the Eurasian continent early in September.  What is interesting about the trends I'm seeing, is the fact that western Russia could conceivably benefit from snow cover growth instead of the eastern side where its normal.  I've studied this model over the years and how it handles predicted snow cover trends and I must say, it does a very good job.  So, with that being said, by the time we enter mid Sept, I'll be looking for snow cover to grow and expand across C & E Russia, all the while, the eastern side will eventually fill up.

Sept 15th...let's not forget our continent...and of course, I fully anticipate Canada to begin filling up...

Snow accu. CFS We 15.09.2021 12 UTC

 

Using the Snow Advance Theory (SAI) developed by Judah Cohen, depending on how fast the snow cover advances in Oct will determine how much, if any, high lat blocking (-AO) develops in the cold season.  If it grows fast, then HP blossoms over Eurasia and thus, leads to a weakening of the Polar Vortex.  My prediction is for a fast and expansive snow cover growth.  Why?  Well, leading climate models are on the idea that the 10mb will have a weak start in Nov & Dec.  If this is right, then you would think the SAI index will be higher than normal this season.  Right? 

Well, check this out, today's run (and previous runs) show Russia nearly completely snow covered by Oct 1st...and Canada???  

Snow accu. CFS Fr 01.10.2021 00 UTC

 

By Oct 15th....

Snow accu. CFS Fr 15.10.2021 00 UTC

 

and finally, by Nov 1st....while this is just 1 run, it does certainly follow a trend I've been seeing the model suggest that the Northern Hemisphere is likely to come out of the gates quite Fast and Furious right into Winter.  Just like the S.H. has experienced, it will be "our" turn for the N. H.  I dunno about you, but I'm already starting to feel like this may be one of those seasons our continent is heading for a deep cold winter.  I'm not in any way suggesting our Sub is going to directly be in the heart of it all, however, but I am suggesting North America is going to get the brunt of the cold and the good ol' Polar Vortex will be spinning up north in Canada and making multiple visits.  This, I will say with confidence, we will experience over the eastern CONUS.  The real question is, how severe could this Winter get???

 

Snow accu. CFS Mo 01.11.2021 00 UTC

 

 

 

 

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We’re even asking that question in Texas, Tom. 
Thanks. Keep us informed.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The CPC updated outlooks for September and the next year are now out.

Here is September 2021

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

Here is fall (SON) 2021

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

And with a drum roll the early outlook for the winter of 2021/22

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

 

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There are indications that we will be heading into a La Nina this fall and winter season. And generally in a La Nina fall we tend to be warmer than average at the start and colder at the end. I say colder because by late October and into November we can have some very cold days and nights. If the La Nina becomes a reality this would be the 2nd winter in a row with La Nina conditions. Here in Grand Rapids there have been some very mild (mild temperatures and less snow fall) and there have been some very cold and snowy winters with a La Nina. Last winter was a rather mild winter with near record low snow fall here at Grand Rapids. Last winter was the 2nd winter in a row of mild temperatures and much below average snow fall. In the last 10 years Grand Rapids has now had 6 winters with below average snow fall with 3 of them below 60″ and one (last winter) below 50″ I would say we are overdue for a much above average snow fall season.

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Some more data came in earlier this week from the IRI multi-model suite and its suggesting a very warm Autumn...

SON21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

SON21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

 

What about Winter???  It appears it gets colder on the tail end of Autumn into early Winter...

OND...

OND21_NAm_tmp.gif

OND21_NAm_pcp.gif

 

NDJ...

NDJ22_NAm_tmp.gif

 

NDJ22_NAm_pcp.gif

 

Heart of Winter during DJF...so, we have a possible Fast Start and a cold and snowy forecast???  Where do I sign...keep the trends going.

DJF22_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

DJF22_NAm_pcp.gif

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With my mind pondering about Autumn and thinking about the LR pattern, could there be an abrupt shift towards Autumn brewing???  Over the past week, I've seen the models flipping back and forth but just recently I've noticed the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies agreeing on the pattern towards Labor Day weekend.  In fact, they are both more or less in agreement for the entire month of Sept which indicates to me the models may be locking on to some data.  What is it they are seeing???

CFSv2...

2.png

 

Euro Weeklies...

3.png

 

As @Clintonhas shown in a previous post, the LRC is predicting a cool/cold mid and late Sept...I think it may be a bit to slow with this cooler pattern but I could be wrong.  Using the LRC at this time of year is tricky because I feel that the old pattern fades as the year progresses and the "new" pattern is about to set up across the Arctic north which can set up blocking patterns that the old pattern did not have before.  For instance, the Greenland Block (-NAO) and -EPO/-WPO are ALL progged to take over the driving forces during the entire month based on the model data that is showing up.  Last year's pattern, iirc, we did NOT have a -WPO and the pattern setting up across the PAC "pond" in the W PAC will have an impact to our N.A wx pattern.

 

With that being said, it's not surprising to me that we are seeing the Euro Weeklies showing snowfall begin early and often for the Rockies later in Sept...

1.png

 

Could some folks out west and north see their 1st flakes this month???  Gosh, that would be something...I'm wondering if @FAR_Weather or those in N MN will see flakes fly late Sept.  Nevertheless, I think we will see a volatile 1st month of Met Autumn and say a final good bye to Summer.

7.png

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Remember those CFS snow maps I posted earlier out of Eurasia??  It is becoming clearer day by day that the pattern evolving across the "pond" over W Russia/Europe will support the onset of early snows.  I think this is the harbinger of things to come as nature lays down the foundation...just like it will be doing on our side of the Northern Hemisphere  over AK/Canada.  Check out this temp anomaly off the 0z EPS as a very cold airmass will brew and spill over eastern Europe and W Russia in early Sept.  I will confirm, based on conversations with my mother who has been in Poland this summer, it has become very cool of late.  A vast difference from recent summers where its been anomalously hot.  I wonder what the SAI index will start off like this year on Oct 1st???  Very interested to see what Dr. Judah Cohen will have to say about all of this in the weeks ahead.

1.gif

 

CFS still advertising widespread snow to overwhelm Russia throughout Sept....

Snow accu. CFS Th 16.09.2021 00 UTC

 

Oct 1st...

Snow accu. CFS Fr 01.10.2021 12 UTC

 

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If you build the glacier early, it will bode well to seed cold in North America.  The trend is your friend and the LR GEFS are showing the same signals the CFS has been suggesting on both sides of the Northern Hemisphere.  On our side of the N.H., I'm digging the "look" over NW NAMER and if you pay close attn to Cali, there are some hints of snow.  This is something I'll be paying attn to in Oct/Nov to see if storms track into the west coast (which I am predicting they will).  As my curiosity grows, I will continue to monitor developments in the LR pattern and what this Autumn season may portray.  

1.png

2.png

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I don't forsee this being a "build gently into winter" type year. I think its going to be a crash and blitz to the end. That's my opinion. I think we should enjoy the peace of September so far. 

I dunno, we're gradually easing into Fall this year it seems. I wouldn't mind it, I'm tired of late September heat waves followed a few weeks after by a massive cold front.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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  • Tom changed the title to Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion
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