Tom Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Folks, as we move firmly past the midpoint of the year, it's about that time I start taking a more in depth look into the cold season What are the models showing for this Autumn?? Should we expect another year of extremes across our country?? With our Sub Forum placed smack dab in the middle of the nation, the heartland of the nation could very well be placed in the action zone. The talk about a developing La Nina this autumn is almost a certainty based on every single climate model. It's actually quite interesting to see all the model agreement wrt to the Central PAC ocean SST's. With that being said, do the oceans create the pattern or does the LRC dictate it? That is the epitome of the chicken vs egg theory. Anyway, let's discuss as I'm sure there are a number of you who are interested. The latest JMA seasonal came in the other day and is suggesting the ridge out west to continue and poke up north along W NAMER and the counter reaction would be for a trough across the eastern CONUS. The ridge up near SE Canada is a prime location for tropical threats in the ATL this year to hit the EC. Gotta pay attn to this as it could be a big deal in the early Autumn season. Sept... Temp/Precip... October....the jet stream fires up across AK and NW Canada along with Blocking in eastern Canada should lead into a favorable wet start to the Autumn season in the drought stricken regions of the PAC NW/N Rockies. Temp/Precip.... SST's for the month of Oct...east-based La Nina is growing and holding steady while the N PAC is rather warm. The continuation of the warm pool off the west coast of the U.S is dominant and of course the EC. What does all this mean?? I believe it will create another wx pattern of extremes across the CONUS. My gut feeling about Autumn pattern as the jet strengthens and blocking prevails, the PAC NW will see much of the drought beaten down. Fast start to Winter up in the Rockies this year based on the data I'm seeing. I'm both very curious and anxious to see how the new LRC sets up this Autumn as the sun sets up across the N Pole. There is no doubt in my mind that the Polar Vortex will be making its presence early and often across N Canada this Oct/Nov. I'm fully expecting to see North America to have another fast start to winter and expansion of snow cover this cold season. Something really fascinating in terms of wx extremes will be setting up this season over the entirety of the Northern Hemisphere. Blocking, Blocking and more Blocking....if this summer is any indication of this, then we are in for some fascinating wx patterns down the road. Oh, ya...I'm sure we'll see a SE Ridge this Autumn and I think it comes sometime in Nov, my guess is in early/mid Nov. Finally, the CFSv2 map below shows the rapid cooling expected across the C PAC ocean and bottom out sometime in Oct/Nov... 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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