Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion

[sumweatherdude]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks to Ben Noll and his free snow anomaly maps....using these multi-model as guidance...

Oct...late month cold period near the GL's???  The models are trending that way in recent days....

 

 

Nov....a continuation???

 

Dec...this looks interesting for our Sub...esp the I-80 corridor and S MW...wait a sec, isn't this where the LRC's hot spot has been showing signs of a Long Term Long Wave pattern???  Interesting...

I love how KC is orange sandwiched between two greens.  Just like last year.  I don't put much stock in these.  But it certainly wouldn't surprise me ... just cuz it is KC after all.  

[sumweatherdude]

Some more random October research.  I wanted to see if there was any correlation between October and our truly snowy winters (not just slightly above average).  Going back to 1970, all winters in which KC got 25" or more snow (Average is 19"), the preceding October was either near or below normal for temps. Out of 11 such winters, only 1984 and 2010 had above normal temps in October. 1984 was 0.2 degrees above normal and 2010 was 2.2 degrees above normal.   So, significantly snowy winters in KC follow warm Octobers only about 18 percent of the time -- at least since 1970.    

 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Some more random October research.  I wanted to see if there was any correlation between October and our truly snowy winters (not just slightly above average).  Going back to 1970, all winters in which KC got 25" or more snow (Average is 19"), the preceding October was either near or below normal for temps. Out of 11 such winters, only 1984 and 2010 had above normal temps in October. 1984 was 0.2 degrees above normal and 2010 was 2.2 degrees above normal.   So, significantly snowy winters in KC follow warm Octobers only about 18 percent of the time -- at least since 1970.    

 

Been thinking the same thing as we go back into warmth dominating autumn wx. The mega-flip can and does happen, but historically the better winters kinda show their hand via chilly autumns. We will really hafta ride the 10-11 and 13-14 analogs hard for this to "pan out" the way we are hoping it does.

[sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Been thinking the same thing as we go back into warmth dominating autumn wx. The mega-flip can and does happen, but historically the better winters kinda show their hand via chilly autumns. We will really hafta ride the 10-11 and 13-14 analogs hard for this to "pan out" the way we are hoping it does.

For places far enough north, I could see where an average winter from a temp perspective still produces plenty of snow.  Down this way, we usually need a colder-than-average winter for it to be snowy.  Otherwise, we get a lot of rainers.  If warm falls lead to warm winters, significantly above average snow is not likely for KC.

[Clinton]

Joe Bastardi showing analogs of the 3 previous Octobers that resemble our current October the most.

Joe Bastardi
Oct 19 2021

Closest October Analogs

The 3 closest analogs to what we have currently

?

 

 

are 1997 ( which was a super nino and amazingly almost exactly like what we see now despite a La Nina coming on, a classic case of ships passing in the night heading different ways enso wise)

?

 

1995

?

 

and 2005

?

 

The November/December that followed was like this

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The 97-98 winter was bizzare. Cause Nov was so darn cold

?

 

December started to break, then the rout was on

?

 

?

 

95-96. stayed of course though there was last half of Jan resistance to the cold including the most heartbreaking wipe out of snowcover I have ever seen, largely because the Alleghany blade, which is set off by a strong ssw jet at. 850mb. came down off the mountain south of my house, wiped out all the snow cover in Boalsburg ( 30 inches went in 36 hours). while the reverse eddy that develops a few miles east of my house kept winds light in State college and left about 6 on the ground, which turned into a super cover when the arctic air returned. My buddies at accuweather at the time warned me not to move to Boalsburg, which they called a weather desert, but my wife wanted too. Ah the things we do for love

 

2005 reversed in from the warm fall for a time in December, then a blowtorch developed for Jan. Winter did return though mid Feb into March, with a blizzard of 58 like snowstorm in the I-95 corridor. Funny story. I had been a huge fight at work over that storm. I was pulling out the old magic chart we used to use in old days before the kind of precip printouts that evolved ( Cahir used to say if you knew how those amounts were arrived at you would never use them). In any case we would look at 6 hour vv in microbars/sec and if we were at -3 or -8 at 5k used that for snow amounts. So the modeling was showing that right over the I-95 corridor with a bullseye over NYC ( The art museum scene in Rocky Balboa was filmed at the start of the storm btw)

[Clinton]

Here is another one

Euro Seeing the Juan 1985 option

which is another analog year in the mix

Anyway strong troughs were marching by to the north one after another and piece broke off in the gulf, entrained a piece of the monsoonal trough that was spitting features out west of Mexico and drew it into the gulf

 

so when I saw the 240 me with my selective memory and bias influenced vivid imagination ( a product of believing the wether unlike what alot of people that are not intimately involved with the weather in a personal way, but wish to use it for their own agendas, so everything is the worst ever and never happened before) remembered Juan and the look on the 240

 

which will probably disappear on the next run but it was nice while it happened

December 1985, btw looked like this

[Clinton]

La Nina update from Joe D'Aleo

La Nina Update

The MEI has a moderate La Nina - comparable to 2020, 1998, 2007, 1988.

See the two month MEI values back to 1998.

The NINO34 has been less enthusiastic so far but it is a 3 month running mean and should jump in ASO.

The surface is showing the cold water move west in the equatorial easterlies.

See the cold water expand and deepen.

 

We have to watch the warm water northwest of Hawaii which was similar in 2013 and moved northeast to the Gulf of Alaska and its ridge built arctic highs and propelled them southeast targeting the Lakes.

 

The models show La Nina peaking NDJ and easing. The outlier NASA model is 1C colder.

Research by CPC decades ago (ignored because now not politically correct) showed QBO modulated ENSO and solar impacts. It nailed 202021 with west QBO favoring a cold northwest and north central (opening the door for February polar vortex to Texas).

The east QBO is developing and would shift cold more to the east

The MJO tends to avoid long stays over cold water and that means La Ninas are typically fickle with cold and warm (like last year) as the MJO returned The MJO though now is not playing and we are seeing signs of an early polar strat warm event and as JB showed the teleconnections are heading cold.

The northern storms tracks are beginning to show.

The wet July to September northeast years averaged cold in December.

The statistical model I play with has a cold start and end to winter. It has done well with a warm October and we see signs in the EPS and CFS of cold east and west in November, so so far so good..

The 'mean' NDJFM 500mb height anomalies support the La Nina/low solar/east QBO mean.

The top match year was a warm winter but cold water developed all along the west coast which kept the trough west. If that should develop, it and we will adjust that direction.

If the warm water moves to the GOA and the strat warm event blossoms, Katy bar the door.

-----------

Note the weather world's dynamical models have moved warmer as La Nina signal increased. See how the IRI based on the CPC NMME went from a cold winter to a warm one the last 2 runs as the La Nina signal increased.

 

 

 

[Madtown]

not the right direction to be moving in atm

[Madtown]

See how close this is...45 day map

[Tom]

An interesting stat from @WGNWx...

Another picture perfect day! For those keeping score at home, the mercury has reached 70°+ for the 156th time this year, tied for 4th most to date on record:

1. 1963: 163

2. 1955: 161

3. 2017: 157

4. 2021, 2007, 2005: 156

 

2017, 2007 and 2005 all ended up becoming La Nina's during mid and late Autumn into Winter.  2007 was the strongest in the bunch with a mean ONI index of -1.3C during SON and -1.6C during Winter.  Could be some interesting correlations with the 2007-2008 winter.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

An interesting stat from @WGNWx...

Another picture perfect day! For those keeping score at home, the mercury has reached 70°+ for the 156th time this year, tied for 4th most to date on record:

1. 1963: 163

2. 1955: 161

3. 2017: 157

4. 2021, 2007, 2005: 156

 

2017, 2007 and 2005 all ended up becoming La Nina's during mid and late Autumn into Winter.  2007 was the strongest in the bunch with a mean ONI index of -1.3C during SON and -1.6C during Winter.  Could be some interesting correlations with the 2007-2008 winter.

The TORs here in SMI this month brought back memories of 2007. That and 2017 were the best from that list around here. pretty sure 63-64 was a down season after the historic cold of 62-63 when Lake Michigan froze solid.

[Tom]

NOAA just release their Winter Outlook...

https://www.climate.gov/WinterOutlook2021

[Andie]

We’ll, if they’re right, Texas won’t complain.  Last year just about about flattened our attitude and broke some people financially. 

[snowstorm83]

Groundbreaking info for us in Nebraska. Equal chances for above/below average precipitation and temperatures this winter. 

[Clinton]

This stinks.  We usually take a family road trip through the Ozarks but no point this year.  The leaves around here are not bright at all.

[jaster220]

05-06 was another one-month-wonder, similar to 00-01 except not to that level in Dec and whereas 06 went warm, 01 at least stayed reasonable tho a flake-less wonder during JAN/FEB.

88-89 was akin to 11-12 (more horrible bad ju-ju)

97-98 was classic mega-NIno, cold autumn storms then "poof"

On the brighter side:

07-08 rocked the house, tho I can't say what QBO dominated that winter?

Odd seeing October of '95 so warm as it holds the crown for earliest of winters in my lifetime. I remember driving home across the highlands of NMI in solid snow squalls that October and by Vet's Day in November we'd had our first legit bliz.

 

[jaster220]

They say a pictures worth a thousand words. This tells a yuuge story for SMI

 

And for Chi-town..

Cold/Wet Winters - Chicago
2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" ??
1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" ??
1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47" ??

[Grizzcoat]

^^ Good Stuff.

[Clinton]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

They say a pictures worth a thousand words. This tells a yuuge story for SMI

 

And for Chi-town..

Cold/Wet Winters - Chicago
2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" ??
1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" ??
1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47" ??

 

This is great stuff and it looks like we will be adding another set of years to the list.  A repeat of 11-12 would be amazing!

[sumweatherdude]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is great stuff and it looks like we will be adding another set of years to the list.  A repeat of 11-12 would be amazing!

Am I missing your sarcasm?  Winter 11-12 was the least snowy winter on record for KC (and the year I moved here).  

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Am I missing your sarcasm?  Winter 11-12 was the least snowy winter on record for KC (and the year I moved here).  

LOL. Yeah, pencil me confused. 11-12 is like the modern record holder for dumpster fire winter. That being said, my former back yard in Marshall actually did much BETTER in 11-12 compared to last year. If I remember my numbers correctly, something like 44" in 11-12 vs 36" last winter. That should say something about what a horrid winter I am coming off personally. The bar has been set so low, it's actually the perfect time to move to Wayne cnty, one of the lowest avg snow counties in The Mitt. Clinton!!!

[Clinton]

32 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Am I missing your sarcasm?  Winter 11-12 was the least snowy winter on record for KC (and the year I moved here).  

Sorry I got my years confused I was thinking 10-11.  It was Feb of '11 I was hit with a blizzard and got 26 inches of snow.  My bad guys

[jaster220]

Getting the itch to see this map in a deeper shade of blue!

[Niko]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Sorry I got my years confused I was thinking 10-11.  It was Feb of '11 I was hit with a blizzard and got 26 inches of snow.  My bad guys

Dont worry about it bud! Noone is perfect!

[Tom]

So, this is WGN's glimpse into the GL's..."expected" to be warm...b/c NOAA says so....I hope they did some of their own "digging" like some of the mets do across the region instead of just obeying to NOAA.  Who knows, they may end up being right in the end.  Time will tell.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

So, this is WGN's glimpse into the GL's..."expected" to be warm...b/c NOAA says so....I hope they did some of their own "digging" like some of the mets do across the region instead of just obeying to NOAA.  Who knows, they may end up being right in the end.  Time will tell.

This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region??

Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks.

[Stacsh]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region??

Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks.

They mentioned heavier lake effect snow events.  

[gimmesnow]

21 hours ago, jaster220 said:

This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region??

Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks.

The biggest thing I've learned spending time on this forum is that TV "meteorologists" are more actors than actual scientists or meteorologists. Most of them don't do anything, they repeat model predictions and add some drama for ratings.

As soon a medium range forecast shows any meaningful snows TV mets will be smearing their channels with "FIRST GIANT SNOWSTORM OF THE YEAR COULD IT BE THE NEXT HUGE BLIZZARD THIS EARLY!?!?" and then you get 2 inches tops, probably a dusting. And then the liberal ones blame the lack of snow on climate change lol.

[Clinton]

Good blog today from Lezak, he discusses this years pattern so far, the storm ongoing right now and the upcoming storm later this week.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-hurricane-rick-heads-our-way-a-major-storm-develops

[Clinton]

Strat Warm round 2 already?  Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain

[sumweatherdude]

39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Strat Warm round 2 already?  Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain

KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 

[Tom]

47 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Strat Warm round 2 already?  Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain

NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what?  I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland!  Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season.

 

[Clinton]

19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 

 

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what?  I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland!  Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season.

 

I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder.  And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow!

[CentralNebWeather]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder.  And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow!

If I remember correctly, we got down to -33 in Central Nebraska.  That was quite a December.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 

While that is true December 1983 overall was not only colder it was also snowier.

[westMJim]

For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/
Of note for our area is
"An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal.

This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December.

Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall.
These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter.

March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators.

I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season."
We shall see if this plays out.

 

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, westMJim said:

For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/
Of note for our area is
"An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal.

This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December.

Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall.
These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter.

March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators.

I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season."
We shall see if this plays out.

 

Per the comparison to early winter 1989, the relaxing into January was indeed a feature of the 89-90 winter. The big thaw in January ended with NMI's second 2-foot blizzard. I moved up to Traverse in Sept of '90 and heard a lot of stories firsthand. It was such a dynamic bomb storm, many could not make it home from work that day. Ended up walking to nearby motels. Both November's and January's storms were bigly bombs. Another winter when the Nov-Jan connection worked out. Be nice to see some "bombs" again.

[sumweatherdude]

Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here.  Graphs showing extent of land covered by snow in NA every Fall, Winter and Spring since 1967.  Not what I expected to see.  I really expected to see Fall, in particular, with a downward trend because it feels like fall and early winter have been warmer and less snowy of late.  But please don't turn this into a political discussion! 

[mlgamer]

On 10/27/2021 at 8:48 AM, someweatherdude said:

KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 

Topeka as well... -26.

[Clinton]

2.1 inches at my house and no sign that the rain will stop anytime soon.

[Clinton]

WxBell with an update to the Winter forecast:  Snowfall map stayed the same

 

[Clinton]

December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used.

[jaster220]

On 10/28/2021 at 4:05 PM, someweatherdude said:

Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here.  Graphs showing extent of land covered by snow in NA every Fall, Winter and Spring since 1967.  Not what I expected to see.  I really expected to see Fall, in particular, with a downward trend because it feels like fall and early winter have been warmer and less snowy of late.  But please don't turn this into a political discussion! 

Key words: North American

Covers a ton of territory north of the border. As for autumn increasing my gut feeling is we are being lied to (j/k). Back in the 40s-60s the jet slowly worked south into winter. Since then we've seen icreasing volitility and early cold plunges and snows further south. Maybe not where you are but overall its been a trend. Just my 2 cents

[jaster220]

23 hours ago, Clinton said:

December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used.

Yeah, that's a crazy Decemberrrr map even for WxBell

[gimmesnow]

Wow, a winter that doesn't start in the second week of January? Impossible!

[tStacsh]

Don't look at the end of the Euro runs.  Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall.  

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Don't look at the end of the Euro runs.  Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall.  

I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days.

Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is  the target.

 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days.

Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is  the target.

 

Euro Weeklies seem to be in that camp...Thanksgiving Week into early Dec look like Winter locks in for a bit...

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Don't look at the end of the Euro runs.  Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall.  

and the GFS

[jaster220]

On 10/29/2021 at 11:08 AM, Clinton said:

December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used.

Surprised to see some warm ones in their list with that map. Who knows, perhaps we are being set-up for another clunker?? (ducks)