Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Interesting.  I suppose Gary L. would say that any analysis that relies on what happened during the preceding spring and summer is worthless because the global pattern resets in October.    How do people feel about using analogs to predict future weather.  I know it's a common tool.  Does it work? 

I would guess there are some parallels but not sure how accurate it can be.  I know the NWS uses analogs on individual storms sometimes.  I don't think any one method by itself works, I think you have to put several of them together.

[Niko]

This month should be ideal for cleaning up your yard and putting everything away to start preparing for Winter. Temps are looking pretty darn sweet here in mby.

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Interesting.  I suppose Gary L. would say that any analysis that relies on what happened during the preceding spring and summer is worthless because the global pattern resets in October.    How do people feel about using analogs to predict future weather.  I know it's a common tool.  Does it work? 

Predicting the weather is predicting the future. There is no perfect way, only good and bad ways to give you hints on what's going to happen.

Instead of micro-anaylizing everything, using analogs is like saying "there's too much to understand when making our forecast, so we'll use similar situations in the past to make assumptions this similar year will be like other similar years." Logically it makes some sense, but the quality depends on how good the person making the predictions can find similar years and how they're determining similar years.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

WxBells updated Winter outlook

This is not that dissimilar to last year - and with good reason. It is based on a set of analogs that includes last year. We have also incorporated two new analogs, 2018-19 and 2013-14, due to Joe D'Aleo's research.

The analogs that provide the foundation are the winters of 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, and 2020-21. The commonality of these include:

1. Colder than average Mays preceding the period across much of the nation.
2. A high amplitude MJO in the preceding spring, which carried into the hurricane season. Cold phase MJO springs usually have big U.S. impact seasons behind them, and that pattern carries into an early winter correlation.
3. Summer SSTs and hurricane season activity, which signals the tendency for Greenland blocking in winter (especially early).

 

Not to be a downer, but it seems like 2013-14 has been an analog every year since 2013-14.

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Not to be a downer, but it seems like 2013-14 has been an analog every year since 2013-14.

Yes and 2008 also lol.

[Niko]

Got this off Twitter....

Very ominous looking sky there in Waterford, Twp. MI. This location is located to my NW. Not too far away.

 

 

[Jayhawker85]

Per Gary L....

The first thing to remember this morning about this complex weather pattern is that we are still in the old pattern this morning. The new LRC is evolving and we have identified day one of every year's LRC to happen closer to October 6 or 7. So, just another couple of days and we will begin seeing the true new weather pattern. Right now, the models begin with the old pattern, and more errors than usual are happening within these models. 

[Hawkeye]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

WxBells updated Winter outlook

Keep in mind the above/below avg temp and snow numbers are pretty tame (+1, -1, 125%).

[sumweatherdude]

On 10/1/2021 at 5:47 AM, Clinton said:

There are some signs this October will have above average temps and above average peecip. How has that translated in the past for KC?

Here's 30 years-worth of data.  I can't discern any particular patterns (except that the mid-2010s sucked for KC). 

Year	October Temperature Departure	Following Winter Snowfall Departure
1990	+0.7	-2.2
1991	+1.2	-8.7
1992	+0.1	+15.5
1993	-2.9	-0.8
1994	+1.1	-11.9
1995	+0.7	+0.3
1996	-0.1	+10.4
1997	+1.5	+0.8
1998	+2.2	-5.9
1999	+.06	-5.9
2000	+3.4	+4.0
2001	-0.4	-10.6
2002	-5.7	-9.3
2003	+1.2	+1.4
2004	+1.4	-5.5
2005	+2.0	-5.4
2006	-0.1	-8.6
2007	+3.2	+5.3
2008	-0.9	-4.2
2009	-5.8	+25.5
2010	+2.2	+18.1
2011	+1.9	-14.9
2012	-1.7	+13.0
2013	-1.3	+7.3
2014	+1.2	-4.6
2015	+2.0	-12.9
2016	+5.4	-13.9
2017	+1.3	-11.1
2018	-0.9	+10.2
2019	-5.0	-1.6
2020	-2.8	-3.3

[Beltrami Island]

17 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Here's 30 years-worth of data.  I can't discern any particular patterns (except that the mid-2010s sucked for KC). 

I don't think KC has consistent or high enough average snowfall to do this kind of analysis.  You need to have a higher average and larger deviations to draw any conclusions from the data.  For a generic local in the UP for instance that averages 200" per year, years with 150" or 250" are significant deviations from the average but probably easily within statistically expected values.  Where as for KC with an average of 30"(?), a 12" snowstorm or lack there of represent nearly half the annual average.  A statistician can probably state what I am thinking more eloquently.

[sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

I don't think KC has consistent or high enough average snowfall to do this kind of analysis.  You need to have a higher average and larger deviations to draw any conclusions from the data.  For a generic local in the UP for instance that averages 200" per year, years with 150" or 250" are significant deviations from the average but probably easily within statistically expected values.  Where as for KC with an average of 30"(?), a 12" snowstorm or lack there of represent nearly half the annual average.  A statistician can probably state what I am thinking more eloquently.

Agreed.  And we don't even average 30 inches.  More like 19.  But if we had seen particularly cold Octobers coinciding a lot with above normal snowfall, maybe some conclusions could be drawn.  But I didn't see that.  The only thing I did see is that our snowiest winters tend to follow below average to normal October temps (if you take the data back into the 1980s).  But of course there are exceptions even to that.  

[Tom]

Last nights Euro weeklies flashed what could be a cold start to Nov where it gets wintry for a lot of us.  It sorta is hinting at the trough I alluded to yesterday that I expect to see in late Oct, but the model doesn't really dial it up till the 1st week of NOV where a winter-like pattern sets up.  I'll post more maps tomorrow.  

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Agreed.  And we don't even average 30 inches.  More like 19.  But if we had seen particularly cold Octobers coinciding a lot with above normal snowfall, maybe some conclusions could be drawn.  But I didn't see that.  The only thing I did see is that our snowiest winters tend to follow below average to normal October temps (if you take the data back into the 1980s).  But of course there are exceptions even to that.  

I do like the idea of your attempted analysis correlating october temps to the following winter snowfall.  I have had a feeling there is a correlation for a while.   It won't work for KC, probably not Chicago either.  Maybe MSP, but I would like to see the results for an area like duluth/superior outside of lake effected/enhancement snow areas.  I don't have time to gather the data though. 

[snowstorm83]

I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best 

Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. 

Year                            Snowfall        Oct departure

1980-81		36.5	-5.2
1981-82		95.7	-3.7
1982-83		96.5	1
1983-84		107.3	0.8
1984-85		68.2	1.6
1985-86		89.3	-1.4
1986-87		40.6	-0.7
1987-88		53.8	-4.7
1988-89		119.1	-5.6
1989-90		58.3	0.3
1990-91		63.8	-2
1991-92		100	-3.7
1992-93		94.2	-2.5
1993-94		110.4	-4.1
1994-95		91.2	3.1
1995-96		135.4	-0.4
1996-97		128.2	-0.5
1997-98		80.1	-0.2
1998-99		90.2	1.8
1999-00		55.5	-1.8
2000-01		99.3	2.7
2001-02		86	-0.7
2002-03		56.3	-8.5
2003-04		109.9	0.2
2004-05		91.5	1.2
2005-06		89.2	1.8
2006-07		80.7	-4.3
2007-08		80	3.6
2008-09		73.6	0.5
2009-10		65.8	-5.1
2010-11		93.4	2.8
2011-12		49.1	4.4
2012-13		129.4	-1.6
2013-14		131	0.9
2014-15		49.2	0.7
2015-16		81.4	2.2
2016-17		67	3.5
2017-18		91.9	1.5
2018-19		106.8	-3.1
2019-20		92.2	0.4
2020-21		82.6	-6.1

Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao. 

 

 

 

[Niko]

I hope this pans out for the G L's region. All we can do is sit back and wait for the show to start.  Good luck to everyone!

 

[Tom]

I apologize for not posting the Euro weeklies maps from Monday, but instead, I'll wait for today's run later this afternoon.  Keep ya'll posted!  

 

 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

I hope this pans out for the G L's region. All we can do is sit back and wait for the show to start.  Good luck to everyone!

 

That looks amazing let's lock it in lol!

[Beltrami Island]

11 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best 

Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. 

Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao. 

 

This is awesome to see and interesting.  The Duluth NWS/airport sites sits right at the top of "The Hill" in a prime spot for E/NE upslope flow right off the lake for Superior cutters systems.  Makes me want to do similar for other Minnesota cities like Brainerd, Bemidji, and Grand Rapids where snowfall is 100% synoptic and also parse out numbers for seasonal vs Dec-Mar where spring/fall snowstorms distort the seasonal totals (I am looking at you Halloween 1991).     

[Andie]

Many I speak to are preparing for the Texas Train Wreck Part Deux. 
Our only concern is will the power people be on their toes or will we be in the dark and cold for a week? 
Trust is not there across the board.  

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was a very mild 63 the official low at GRR was 62. At this time it is cloudy and  here with a dew point of 62. So far this fall season the lowest it has gotten at Grand Rapids is 47. This year will be the latest that the first low of 46 of less has happened here at Grand Rapids in recorded history. The old latest year was in 2016 with it did not reached 46 until October 8th. The next milestone will be 43 that record is now held by 1931 so if it stays at or above 41 until October 11th a another record would be set.

[sumweatherdude]

12 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best 

Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. 

Year                            Snowfall        Oct departure

1980-81		36.5	-5.2
1981-82		95.7	-3.7
1982-83		96.5	1
1983-84		107.3	0.8
1984-85		68.2	1.6
1985-86		89.3	-1.4
1986-87		40.6	-0.7
1987-88		53.8	-4.7
1988-89		119.1	-5.6
1989-90		58.3	0.3
1990-91		63.8	-2
1991-92		100	-3.7
1992-93		94.2	-2.5
1993-94		110.4	-4.1
1994-95		91.2	3.1
1995-96		135.4	-0.4
1996-97		128.2	-0.5
1997-98		80.1	-0.2
1998-99		90.2	1.8
1999-00		55.5	-1.8
2000-01		99.3	2.7
2001-02		86	-0.7
2002-03		56.3	-8.5
2003-04		109.9	0.2
2004-05		91.5	1.2
2005-06		89.2	1.8
2006-07		80.7	-4.3
2007-08		80	3.6
2008-09		73.6	0.5
2009-10		65.8	-5.1
2010-11		93.4	2.8
2011-12		49.1	4.4
2012-13		129.4	-1.6
2013-14		131	0.9
2014-15		49.2	0.7
2015-16		81.4	2.2
2016-17		67	3.5
2017-18		91.9	1.5
2018-19		106.8	-3.1
2019-20		92.2	0.4
2020-21		82.6	-6.1

Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao. 

 

 

 

The interesting thing about this for places as far north as Minnesota is that a particularly cold winter up there might not always translate into more snow.  I lived there for three years.  And my recollection is that the arctic plunges up there tend to really dry things out.  People joke that it's "too cold to snow."  Although that's not literally true, if you're hit by lots of arctic blasts, that air tends to be dry.  In KC, on the other hand, a cold winter will usually translate to more snow (in theory) because we tend to ride the line between rain and snow a lot.  So I thought maybe a cold October would translate to a colder winter, and therefore more snow for KC.  

[Clinton]

I found Joe D'Aleo piece interesting this morning.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

That was a very cold winter central and east.

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

That was a very cold winter central and east.

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

[Hawkeye]

Terry Swails posted his winter '21/22 discussion overnight.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/terry-s-take-on-winter-2021-22

[sumweatherdude]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Terry Swails posted his winter '21/22 discussion overnight.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/terry-s-take-on-winter-2021-22

Wow.  That was quite a write up.  Impressive.  

[jaster220]

On 10/4/2021 at 4:07 PM, Hawkeye said:

Keep in mind the above/below avg temp and snow numbers are pretty tame (+1, -1, 125%).

Yeah, for all the 2013-14 talk, they didn't paint anything close.

 

[westMJim]

If anyone it planning a fall color trip here is the latest color update for Michigan's UP

Upper Peninsula

Chippewa County.  60-70% color change. Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Luce County: 50-60% color change . Peak fall color expected the second week in October.

Mackinac County:  40-50% color change. Peak fall color expected the second week in October.

Schoolcraft County: 40-60% color change. Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Alger County:  70%-at near peak color change.

Delta County:   65%-at near peak color change

Dickinson County:  65& at near color change.

Marquette County:  75%-at peak color change

Menominee County: 55%-at color change. . Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Baraga County:  80% to at peak color change

Gogebic & Ontonagon  past peak color change

Houghton & Keweenaw  80% at peak color change

Iron County:  past peak color change

The above was the report as of October 7^th

[jaster220]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:20 AM, Clinton said:

I found Joe D'Aleo piece interesting this morning.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

That was a very cold winter central and east.

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

That was a very cold winter central and east.

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

Good stuff Clinton. I really really want to buy a ticket aboard the winter hype train. But last year's ticket was the absolute opposite of a Powerball winner for me.

[jaster220]

On 10/8/2021 at 9:57 PM, jaster220 said:

Yeah, for all the 2013-14 talk, they didn't paint anything close.

 

Ok, to be fair, WxBell's earlier outlook wasn't so bold as this final call. Here's their early season map:

 

[jaster220]

I remember complaining back in Oct 2017 about how hot it was. We did get that historic December to remember tho with the holiday dream week of heavy snows and bitter cold. I'd be up for a repeat this year.

Thinking about my new region here in Wayne county, I'm pretty sure Jan of '05 was the last time the Metro region saw legit bliz conditions with 12-14" storm totals. Actually, 04-05 was an awesome winter in SEMI which included a nice hit 12/23 for Christmas as the yuuge OHV monster storm clipped Motown pretty good. I think my new place got about 8" with that.

 

[jaster220]

Absolute historic extreme cold amidst this warm era. Insane. Just proves how real the possibility of extreme winter can be.

 

In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now):

• The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average
• sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August
• Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30)

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Good stuff Clinton. I really really want to buy a ticket aboard the winter hype train. But last year's ticket was the absolute opposite of a Powerball winner for me.

Same here. Hope things turn in our favor this winter.

[jaster220]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:27 AM, Hawkeye said:

Terry Swails posted his winter '21/22 discussion overnight.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/terry-s-take-on-winter-2021-22

I appreciated the portion about "organic" prognosticating via signs of nature. Pretty impressive. There were many such signs around here at this point in 2013. As for this year, did you see that story about a squirrel hiding 200 lbs of walnuts under the hood of a pick-up truck in just 4 days? In MN iirc

[Tom]

I'll try to make some time today to discuss some rather interesting model data and clues that November might get off to a rather cold and wintry start.  Record weak Polar Vortex by end of Oct???  Strat Warming firing up early and often...the stage is being set...

[Clinton]

Looks like a good bet that the MJO makes it to phase 8,1,or 2 by months end.

[jaster220]

JB's Saturday Summary was a re-cap/update of WxBell's winter outlook.

(skip to 3:55)

https://www.weatherbell.com/

[Tom]

It's wonderful to see how this month of Oct will likely close out as everything seems to be orchestrating like a symphony.  The target dates of a pattern shift are lining up even a little earlier than I'd anticipated.   I was predicting a major trough to develop across the eastern CONUS the week of the 25th but that date may have to be shifted a few days earlier.  What is transpiring is a thing of beauty....the good ol' West-Based Greenland Block is going to form, thus, leading into a massive high lat Blocking pattern.  A while back I mentioned that I was diggin' the 500mb pattern the climate models were showing for Oct across Canada.  It is certainly starting to shine as this 500mb pattern will generate a southern stream storm track for the second half of the month. 

After what will have been a little more than a week of tracking "cutters", I believe the next exhibit of the LRC will likely feature a +PNA pattern that forms an expansive W C.A. ridge alongside a West-Based Greenland/Hudson Bay Block.  Last Monday's Euro Weeklies flashed this scenario but a tad later.  I feel that it'll correct earlier based on the latest GEFS and EPS runs of late.  Once it pops, it has the potential to Lock well into November.

 

The JMA seasonal came out yesterday and it is also illustrating a similar North American 500mb pattern for the month of November...W Coast ridge pops while major ridging near Greenland and E Canada take over.  The CFSv2 is also suggesting a similar look.

 

 

 

Temp/Precip pattern....SW warmth while a corridor of normal temps in between the 2 warm pools across the continent where there will prob be an active storm track.

 

Precip...active N Stream???

 

 

 

[Niko]

TWC is on board!

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

TWC is on board!

No title on yet map. Is that Oct? Or winter? Or Nov? Thx bud

[Niko]

24 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

No title on yet map. Is that Oct? Or winter? Or Nov? Thx bud

Tbh, I think its "Late Autumn, Winter Temperature Outlook."

Anytime bud!

[Tom]

Alrighty, this may be a longer than usual post as I've gathered enough data to confidently say that November is going to come out of the gates with "Tastes of Winter".  It has been long believed and predicted by JB and others that we would see a Fast start to Winter this year.  What I'm going to do is lay down the data points and LR clues which suggest this analogy may not be far fetched.  In fact, I'll say Boldly that we, as a nation, may be dealt an ugly early blow from Ol' Man Winter early more often than not for next month.  This, in many ways, may not be the best outcome for reasons such as our heating bills this cold season.  I'm actually getting a bit worried about this scenario...but, that's a whole other topic of conversation.  Stock up on those cords of wood is all I gotta say, esp those up north where it is common to do so.

Let me start off by showing last night's Euro Weeklies that "corrected" to my suggestion of an earlier transition to an eastern CONUS trough next week.  As the month of Oct closes out, the beginnings of a Long Term Long Wave Western NAMER ridge sets up.  This will have legs my friends.  Why?

 

 

Here's why I believe this to be an accurate prediction for the above...in the animations below, both at 30mb/50mb, the location of the strat warming around the end of Sept through Oct 12th (end of run) are illustrating an carbon copy scenario where the LR Euro weeklies model is developing the blocking running up along the W coast of NAMER up into AK/NW NAMER.  I've used this data before many times that has worked in predicting the pattern 3+ weeks in advance.  I don't see why it would fail me this time.  You'd be blind not to see the troughs being locked right over the U.S. 

 

 

Next on the List, are you thinking about Snow???  My goodness, the trends keep getting snowier each run and yesterday's is going bonkers for the Rockies and into the central CONUS.  The Euro Control run is absolutely wild come mid November.  Freakin' nuts I tell ya.  The below map is the accumulative 45-day mean...#WinterIsCometh

 

 

What are the models saying about the Polar Vortex???  Well, Dr. Cohen is getting pretty excited based on the model trends and what they are showing.  A rather earlier Strat Warming event is going to blossom right over the Arctic/Archipelago to close out Oct.  How weak will the PV get?  Does it last?  These are the questions that remain to be seen bc we all know how quickly the models can change, esp with the strength/location of the PV.  Nonetheless, there is a lot to look forward to as a winter wx enthusiast for this season.  Trust me, like many of you, all I ask is for an old fashioned long winter...could this year be the one??  Let's ponder on this idea...

 

I'll finish with this comment as I like to see what the UKMET model is showing and that is a trend for more high lat blocking near Greenland/eastern Canada for DJF.  The strongest signal is for a stout -EPO.  I commented in an earlier post in the Oct thread that I see a clear signal developing out near Hawaii and points east into So Cal.  The pattern is showing the development of a distinct trough like corridor which points to the idea of a -EPO once the ridge pops out west next month.

Last run...

 

Current Run...

[Clinton]

Joe Bastardi with some Stratospheric Warming analogs that point to a cooler November and a cold December.

New Stratwarm analogs based on Halloween GEFS forecast

Note the 8 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event based analogs for the stratosphere on October 31:

You seriously can't get closer to the forecast for October 31:

The time period is from 1951-2010 (all the strong events in there). The message remains that we will step down in November, with December being the coldest month, and it becomes a crapshoot after.

 

 

While against 1991-2020 this would be colder, the message is made more clear to me by using the 60 year period where these samples occurred (only 8 times).

In all cases, the period from Thanksgiving to Christmas was well below normal for GWHDDs.

[CentralNebWeather]

53 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Joe Bastardi with some Stratospheric Warming analogs that point to a cooler November and a cold December.

New Stratwarm analogs based on Halloween GEFS forecast

Note the 8 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event based analogs for the stratosphere on October 31:

You seriously can't get closer to the forecast for October 31:

The time period is from 1951-2010 (all the strong events in there). The message remains that we will step down in November, with December being the coldest month, and it becomes a crapshoot after.

 

 

While against 1991-2020 this would be colder, the message is made more clear to me by using the 60 year period where these samples occurred (only 8 times).

In all cases, the period from Thanksgiving to Christmas was well below normal for GWHDDs.

December of 1983 got my attention. 

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

December of 1983 got my attention. 

And Dec 1977…you have to wonder…

[sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

And Dec 1977…you have to wonder…

The Decembers listed averaged 20.3 inches of snow for KC.  And that's with the winter of 2010-2011 where we had about 200% of snowfall.  So overall, those winters gave KC fairly close to average snowfall.  FWIW. 

Notably, though, December 1983 was about 20 degrees below normal in KC.  That's pretty amazing.  I was just a wee lad in Dallas at the time.  13.4 degrees below normal there.  

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

And Dec 1977…you have to wonder…

..and '89..and..and 

It's like the "who's who" list of brutal Decembers around The Mitt. Notice the max departures just south in the OHV.

And he's right about the "crap shoot" into the new year. The ones I remember personally (78 and onward), most were good with even some historic stuff thrown in so there's that to put up against what obviously were some real duds to get to the maps shown.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

..and '89..and..and 

It's like the "who's who" list of brutal Decembers around The Mitt. Notice the max departures just south in the OHV.

And he's right about the "crap shoot" into the new year. The ones I remember personally (78 and onward), most were good with even some historic stuff thrown in so there's that to put up against what obviously were some real duds to get to the maps shown.

I think a lot what happens with the Polar Vortex this year will be an important role as to whether this winter hits and holds for our Sub or reverses course in Jan/Feb.  If the PV strengthens mid/late winter (which Judah Cohen mentions) then we will have to bank on the high lat blocking...but that's not a given.  In any event, I'm actually more confident than normal that we should have a better start to Winter compared to previous years.  The holiday season should be fun instead of experiencing a December whereby we are grilling outdoors... 

[Tom]

Thanks to Ben Noll and his free snow anomaly maps....using these multi-model as guidance...

Oct...late month cold period near the GL's???  The models are trending that way in recent days....

 

 

Nov....a continuation???

 

Dec...this looks interesting for our Sub...esp the I-80 corridor and S MW...wait a sec, isn't this where the LRC's hot spot has been showing signs of a Long Term Long Wave pattern???  Interesting...

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks to Ben Noll and his free snow anomaly maps....using these multi-model as guidance...

Oct...late month cold period near the GL's???  The models are trending that way in recent days....

 

 

Nov....a continuation???

 

Dec...this looks interesting for our Sub...esp the I-80 corridor and S MW...wait a sec, isn't this where the LRC's hot spot has been showing signs of a Long Term Long Wave pattern???  Interesting...

What'd I miss? I only see AN "greens" in far N latitudes. Nothing but oranges down our way

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What'd I miss? I only see AN "greens" in far N latitudes. Nothing but oranges down our way

Look a little closer…there are two pockets of slightly AN snowfall near NE/IA and over STL.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Look a little closer…there are two pockets of slightly AN snowfall near NE/IA and over STL.  

Ok, when I got home to my PC and zoomed the maps up, I do see that "barely above" normal light shading. I also see most of SMI with a "barely below" orange tint. Either are probably noise-level variations and just fall into average (+/-5%). Nothing to phone home about. I realize none of this has to be accurate (bad or good) from this range but I was hopeful to  see a much snowier look by December since it wants to trade places with January temperature-wise. Decembers of 2016  and 2017 delivered 212% and 186% respectively in Marshall. That balanced out the 2014 & 15 dumpster fires. Now, as you noted, the last (3) straight Decembers have also been garbage. It's balancing time again, lol. I will say that some of those historic analog yrs (83,89) were pretty dry away from the LES belts so there is, unfortunately, precedent for a CAD outcome.