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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

My reading of his Wednesday update is that he is less optimistic than he was on Monday.  In fact, much of it seems downright pessimistic if you like snow and cold  and you're anywhere but the northwestern part of our forum.  Am I misreading it?  

Agreed. Not sure I get the same warm cold fuzzy from his msg.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The recent Euro Weeklies appear to be heading in the right direction for many of us in and around the I-80 corridor and towards the Lower Lakes.  If these trends can continue, JAN should make up for the lackluster DEC...the STJ is going to be enfueguo...just need this cold to press some more in future runs that can include many more members on here to bring smiles upon their faces.

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Here's a summary of GFS Model Biases.  Not surprisingly, it generally has a warm bias, but that bias is much more pronounced under certain conditions.  And generally isn't all that consistent across the US under all conditions.  There are a mix of warm and cool biases.  Also has a cold bias when there's snow on the ground.  For KC, it consistently has a warm bias unless there's snow on the ground. 

https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/4-patel-ronak.pdf

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Oh boy...

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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4 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern here 😁

How much is urban sprawl? Where is thermometer  located? Urban heat  island? Ive seen that in many locations. Not just usa, 100s of reporting  stations.

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4 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

How much is urban sprawl? Where is thermometer  located? Urban heat  island? Ive seen that in many locations. Not just usa, 100s of reporting  stations.

As far as urban sprawl I believe Detroit has lost population in the past 20 years, as far as the thermometer location I have no idea, maybe from city airport out to metro airport but that’s just a guess on my part. 

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Dr. Cohen provided his insights on the status of the Polar Vortex and what he believes will be more or less the theme over the coming weeks.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

In summary, he doesn't believe that a major SSW disruption will happen this season.  This is something I personally predicted about a month ago based on gut feeling and the behavior of the PV this season.  A more volatile PV is to be expected with multiple stretched PV intrusions similar to what the '13-'14 winter season show cased.  It's also nice to hear that this upcoming colder pattern could have legs into FEB.  I did not know this, but he has an in-house machine learning model that picked up on the colder JAN over a couple weeks ago which is coming into fruition.  It is now showing that this pattern may last into FEB as it locks into place.  Very interesting stuff.

 

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I remember watching a Jim Flowers video back in October or November where he predicted winter snowfall.  He said the 2nd year in a La Nina is usually less snow than the previous year.  So far he is spot on.  We are way below last years record amounts.  I think we are behind our normal snowfall as well to this point.  Just hard to get a few good winters in row to line up around here.  Hopefully things will change, but right now It's not looking good.

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Jim posted an update recently and said he thinks February will be way above normal here as well, and basically snowfall for the season up through January will go a long way to determining if we have even a normal snowfall season. However, analogs used for this winter show him that we could be in for a cooler summer.

We're at 4" from the 2x it's snowed so far this winter, looks like 6" after the 3rd time it's snowed and then it looks mainly dry and warm to end the month of January for basically everywhere west of the Missouri River.

Not sure what the normal is here, but saw a stat that Sioux City normally has had 11 days of snowfall by now and they are also at 2 days of snowfall this season. Given the extreme record heat last month for the entire country, above normal November at least for eastern Nebraska, and a colder but drier January thus far, yet another epic winter forecast looks to bust.

I can already guess the forecast for next winter though when that thread gets started this summer....

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Cedar Rapids has actually had a really good stretch of winters going back to 2019.  They start later, and are shorter in terms of time; but we have gotten some great snowfall and cold shots.  

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18 minutes ago, BMT said:

Cedar Rapids has actually had a really good stretch of winters going back to 2019.  They start later, and are shorter in terms of time; but we have gotten some great snowfall and cold shots.  

I've recorded snow stats for my yard since the 07-08' season.  Over the last fourteen years, I'm averaging about 38 inches, several inches above normal.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Jim posted an update recently and said he thinks February will be way above normal here as well, and basically snowfall for the season up through January will go a long way to determining if we have even a normal snowfall season. However, analogs used for this winter show him that we could be in for a cooler summer.

We're at 4" from the 2x it's snowed so far this winter, looks like 6" after the 3rd time it's snowed and then it looks mainly dry and warm to end the month of January for basically everywhere west of the Missouri River.

Not sure what the normal is here, but saw a stat that Sioux City normally has had 11 days of snowfall by now and they are also at 2 days of snowfall this season. Given the extreme record heat last month for the entire country, above normal November at least for eastern Nebraska, and a colder but drier January thus far, yet another epic winter forecast looks to bust.

I can already guess the forecast for next winter though when that thread gets started this summer....

If he’s right about February, we’re gonna be smashing some low snowfall records lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Welcome to the meteorological winter mid point.

Here is the winter round up as of January 14th, 2022 for west Michigan.  First off almost half of the states had either their warmest December ever (10) or their 2nd warmest ever (14) and the country overall with its warmest at almost 7 degrees above average. Here in Michigan, it was our 8th warmest overall.

We are now at the halfway point of meteorological winter. At Grand Rapids the mean so far this winter is 28.5 that is +0.4° above the average of 28.1. At Muskegon the average is now at 31.4 that is +1.7 above average. At Lansing the mean is 28.9 and like Muskegon that is +1.7 above average as of this date. The highest for meteorological winter is 63 at all locations the low so far is +1 at Grand Rapids, +10 at Muskegon and +3 over at Lansing. As for snow fall so far this meteorological winter Grand Rapids has recorded 29.1” and for the season so far 38.8” the most in one days 8.0” on January 5th At Muskegon they have only had 20.7” for the meteorological winter and are now at 26.3” for the season that about 15” below average. At Lansing they have had 13.2” for the meteorological winter and 18.9” for the season so far. Bottom line is that this meteorological winter has been warmer than average with below to around average snow fall so far.

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image.thumb.png.1c4986d676e48745d9d68f9852fde3a7.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

image.thumb.png.1c4986d676e48745d9d68f9852fde3a7.png

Something tells me the snow hole in IL/IN will get their fair share by end of FEB and the rest of the MW/Lower Lakes that have been missed.  The models are suggesting a favorable pattern in the weeks ahead.

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Send Rain, please.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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21 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

image.thumb.png.1c4986d676e48745d9d68f9852fde3a7.png

That 3" in Sioux City and 1" in Pierre is worse than staring into the sun.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Nice battle shaping up between the CFSv2 and the CPC boys....money on the CFSv2???  Trends are our friends...my gut says most of the MW/GL's region will finish met Winter on a + snowier note.  As the saying goes, "Finish with a Bang"....

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CPC...

 

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On 1/6/2022 at 7:39 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

How much is urban sprawl? Where is thermometer  located? Urban heat  island? Ive seen that in many locations. Not just usa, 100s of reporting  stations.

I would agree with the general biased warm temps due to UHI in many many cities across the country. As for here in Detroit, the official thermometer would be at KDTW, and likely has been for decades. City of Detroit airport prior, but DTW was built in 1965. Sprawl in greater Detroit basically was on fire post WW2 during the 50's/60's/70's. Those were automotive industry "boom times" for the Big 3 in SEMI. Then the recession of 81-82 nailed the coffin on further growth. 

Both my parents grew up in Detroit proper, and all relatives were around the burbs when I was taken here as a youth for visits, weddings, funerals, etc. The last project that was sort of a "pinnacle of achievement" for the decades of surplus was the construction of the then state of the art Renassance Center right down along the river front circa 1976 completion. Even tho our fam had moved north to the Flint region (60 mi) my dad was so impressed by the REN CEN that he took us there shortly after it opened as "tourists". The REN CEN and a handful of mirrored glass businesses out in the Southfield area (called 2nd downtown Detroit) put up during the mid-late 70's were the last symbols of expansion. 

38 years later in Sept of 2015 my wife and I cut across the northern burbs returning from a visit in Canada. That region literally looked the same as I remembered it from my youth. Like time stood still around there. By comparison, I didn't even recognize the greater Toronto area as we traversed a seemingly endless sprawl heading to Montreal. I had last seen/visited Toronto at Easter in 1990 not many months before moving to NMI. So in a period of 25 yrs (vs 38) Toronto had gotten massive by comparison. Poor Detroit. The City proper just gutted and devastated as if some kind of war had bombed it to pieces. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The active, snowy fantasy-land GFS pattern in early February sure would be nice.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The active, snowy fantasy-land GFS pattern in early February sure would be nice.

Of course, the very next run changes to warm and rainy.  There is at least a more active, moist pattern that may set up.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Of course, the very next run changes to warm and rainy.  There is at least a more active, moist pattern that may set up.

looks incredible up this way, just wish we all could have a foot plus on the ground for a bit

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All the models are showing the more active pattern in early February beginning with a warm surge and rain for many of us.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro.... again, a big surge of warmth up to the lakes as the pattern changes.

image.thumb.png.39ad2b5528fef7b2f824cd2e9f9a9941.png

image.thumb.png.42bdcd23a5baa3aa1b1f3b1c4f05e0e4.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models tonight have become more progressive with the cold front in early February, so instead of rain across Iowa it's now snow.  It's a week away, though.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This morning's GFS is a beauty for Iowa/Wisconsin.  It has once again slowed the front, so we start as rain again, but this time the second piece of energy is much stronger.

image.thumb.png.7e471929baf32d4a2933479c94c55167.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Very interesting blog from Judah Cohen...nice read regarding the similarities this season to the Winter of '13-'14....

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Quote

Last week I discussed the unusual lack of coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere this winter (in the classical sense of the AO or polar cap geopotential height anomalies and there is no obvious coupling through the first week of February (see Figure 11).  The best analog that I could find and mentioned last week is winter 2014.  In that winter there were osberved stretched PV events in January, February and March.  In general, those events were stronger than anything that we have seen so far this winter, but I am feeling more confident that the stretched PV events this winter will not limited to January and the GFS forecasts (see Figure iii), including our diagnostics for just such occasions, are suggestive of another possible event in early February.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 1/27/2022 at 3:16 AM, Tom said:

Very interesting blog from Judah Cohen...nice read regarding the similarities this season to the Winter of '13-'14....

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

 

 

For southeast  Iowa the only similarities  of 13/14 to  21/22  was a warm dec and colder Jan/Feb.   Our business records show Jan/Feb  of 2014 we had  unending  chain of clippers and light snows.   Plowed on about 16 occasions..   this winter it has snowed enough to measure  on 2 events!!!!  Its shocking to me that since Feb 17 2021  I have measured  snow just 2 events.  367 days!

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On 2/17/2022 at 6:04 AM, OKwx2k4 said:

I just read where Arctic Sea ice has reached its highest level since 2009. 14 years. Pretty cool.

Just slightly above the decadal average from 2009-2018.  Still well below every other Decadal average before that.  

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Just slightly above the decadal average from 2009-2018.  Still well below every other Decadal average before that.  

What is the dataset now? 3.5-4 decades?

Its in the low end of middle. I'm not going a rehash of the same stupid stuff everyone already did 10 years ago. It's not new and my opinion isn't changing.

Draw whatever you like from it.

"Marked safe from being killed by the invisible air monster today."

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1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

What is the dataset now? 3.5-4 decades?

Its in the low end of middle. I'm not going a rehash of the same stupid stuff everyone already did 10 years ago. It's not new and my opinion isn't changing.

Draw whatever you like from it.

Sorry, just stating facts.  You can have your opinions if it makes you feel better.   I don't argue opinions.  I like facts and science.  

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For those interested in this kind of thing, I took a look at the last 26 Topeka winters (counting 2021/2022) and came up with this. In a nutshell, slow starts, backloaded winters and less than 20" of snow in 20/26 past winters. Not a snow lover's paradise for sure.

 

 

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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On 2/22/2022 at 9:52 AM, tStacsh said:

Sorry, just stating facts.  You can have your opinions if it makes you feel better.   I don't argue opinions.  I like facts and science.  

Just wondering why the science chooses to use certain time frames for averages  vs the complete data set? Serious question i have always wanted to know why 30 year averages or whatever are used vs all years when the records are talked about. If we are telling everyone a record low was reached in 1849 on this day and the average for today is x. How in the world can the record low not be used to find that average for that day?

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4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Just wondering why the science chooses to use certain time frames for averages  vs the complete data set? Serious question i have always wanted to know why 30 year averages or whatever are used vs all years when the records are talked about. If we are telling everyone a record low was reached in 1849 on this day and the average for today is x. How in the world can the record low not be used to find that average for that day?

Probably because the 30 year averages are more representative of the current climate. For example in Lincoln:

Avg high/low Feb 1887 to present: 37.7/17.2

Avg high/low 1991-2020: 40.0/17.8

Now getting off topic, but I wonder if the minimal rise in the low temps is due to observations being taken at taken at the airport vs. elsewhere in the city. I'm not sure about Lincoln specifically, but I don't think most airport weather stations began until the 1940s. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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12 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Probably because the 30 year averages are more representative of the current climate. For example in Lincoln:

Avg high/low Feb 1887 to present: 37.7/17.2

Avg high/low 1991-2020: 40.0/17.8

Now getting off topic, but I wonder if the minimal rise in the low temps is due to observations being taken at taken at the airport vs. elsewhere in the city. I'm not sure about Lincoln specifically, but I don't think most airport weather stations began until the 1940s. 

Kinda get that, but an average is an average. If you are choosing the data set to be "more representative" of the current climate its no longer the average climate. It may be a representation of the current climate, but not a true average of the climate. Science likes data...y get rid of it

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13 hours ago, mlgamer said:

For those interested in this kind of thing, I took a look at the last 26 Topeka winters (counting 2021/2022) and came up with this. In a nutshell, slow starts, backloaded winters and less than 20" of snow in 20/26 past winters. Not a snow lover's paradise for sure.

 

 

c1.png

c2.png

c3.png

Good job crunching those #'s and I will add that official records for ORD have also seen a big trend upwards for backloaded winters in Chicago, esp in the month of FEB.  I recall reading a blog from one of our local media outlets and @WGN had written one illustrating the snowier trends for the last month of met winter.  This has been true over the last few years.  This year will be yet another month of AN snowfall for FEB once we get past our next winter storm.

 

1.jpeg

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I will add that official records for ORD have also seen a big trend upwards for backloaded winters in Chicago, esp in the month of FEB.  I recall reading a blog from one of our local media outlets and @WGN had written one illustrating the snowier trends for the last month of met winter.  This has been true over the last few years.

Along this same line, in my limited dataset for Topeka, December was always ahead of January until this year (+0.9" now). Last four winters: Dec: 4.8", Jan: 23.4". Our December snows have seemingly shifted into January.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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10 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Two events have produced nearly 75% of the season totals in Des Moines.

mw_season_snowfall.png

I  had 2.5" here.  Just a couple miles west over 3" 

That means for the season Im at 21.3". 

Of my 21.3"  more than 90%  fell on the Jan 1st  and Jan 15th events.  

Still crazy to only have measurable  snow on 3 occasions and yet have 21.3".

Incidentally  Im not really sure what Ottumwas avg snowfall is? As I have seen 2 distinct  numbers. One apparently  from OTM and another  from a coop observer data?  I would think 30 to 36"?  I do believe  theres a total lack of accurate  data here. No one properly measuring on 6 hour intervals, etc.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Not much in Omaha.

Oh you’re back? That’s something that literally nobody asked for.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This was true (near 75% from two events) on Feb 25th. Not so anymore with the 5" yday.

Source- just  doubleclick and copy the URLmw_season_snowfall.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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