snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Are the models less tuned into whats going on in Asia and therefore have a tendency to be "surprised" more over there? I assume they arent able to access the same breadth and depth of data that they are from US/DevEuro, but perhaps thats more of a problem for mesoscale models and these day 5+ things are typically handled by satellite data? Just curious if anyone knows. As far as I know the GFS has equal skill all across the globe. Not sure though. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Speaking of things that look alright, the CFS looks quite nice for the week it counts most. The CFS has been on a good roll lately. Consistency is the important thing with that model. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Are the models less tuned into whats going on in Asia and therefore have a tendency to be "surprised" more over there? I assume they arent able to access the same breadth and depth of data that they are from US/DevEuro, but perhaps thats more of a problem for mesoscale models and these day 5+ things are typically handled by satellite data? Just curious if anyone knows. More that it takes very small changes of a particular order to cause large perturbations in the modeled solution(s). And Asia is full of potential conduits for said chaos. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Biggest difference on the GEFS so far is we got a used condom in the north pacific instead of a giant sperm 2 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 I think the models are really beginning to pick up on a likely MJO wave coming into the picture. No doubt that development would cause a pattern shift. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Ocean effect snow in Florida. 3 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 The Pacific is shut down, and that I am excited about the potential ahead is very real. 00z ECMWF in 32 minutes 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Tons of potential coming up. Two runs now with epic cold air coming into the lower 48. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: The Pacific is shut down, and that I am excited about the potential ahead is very real. 00z ECMWF in 32 minutes I'm betting at least one of the next three runs will be very good for us. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I'm betting at least one of the next three runs will be very good for us. I think by Thanksgiving we will be drooling on our phones, laptops, etc, etc. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere. That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10. Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict. The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom. Extreme amplification. Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere. That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10. Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict. The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom. Extreme amplification. Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th. Agreed. Good post. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 00z GEFS Day 9.5 jet detaching, retracting. Here we go! Now c'mon block set up near ~150 W! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere. That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10. Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict. The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom. Extreme amplification. Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th. Probably true 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 00z GEM(Canadian) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 In a week, day 16 will only be nine days out. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Already down to 33 tonight. Brrrr. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Pretty nice GFS ensemble tonight. We're getting there! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 42 here with a bright moon and an east breeze. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Every CPC analog that was a La Nina year was good tonight. Number one was none other than 2008. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 We're getting into the range where the early stages of the pattern in question should be showing up on the ECMWF tonight. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Next weekend seems to be trending drier... and warmer. ECMWF shows mid 50s on Friday and maybe around 60 on Saturday and Sunday. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Every CPC analog that was a La Nina year was good tonight. Number was none other than 2008. hot dang 1968 showed up. Are we on the 1968 timeline??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 00z GEFS another step in the right direction. Pretty good signal for Block and southeast U.S. ridge. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: hot dang 1968 showed up. Are we on the 1968 timeline??? 68-69 was a nino. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 39 in Troutdale and a little breezy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 66 F here with a dewpoint of 12 F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 My money's on number 16 for me and number 14 for Rob! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 9'er 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: My money's on number 16 for me and number 14 for Rob! Hell ya! Book it! Done deal! MBG. Man that would be awesome. Even half of it. I'm not too terribly greedy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2021 Report Share Posted November 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hell ya! Book it! Done deal! MBG. Man that would be awesome. Even half of it. I'm not too terribly greedy. I am! I want records this year. From 12z, but I like where the 850s are at the end of the EPS. Would like to see that continue 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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