PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are the models less tuned into whats going on in Asia and therefore have a tendency to be "surprised" more over there? I assume they arent able to access the same breadth and depth of data that they are from US/DevEuro, but perhaps thats more of a problem for mesoscale models and these day 5+ things are typically handled by satellite data? Just curious if anyone knows. 

As far as I know the GFS has equal skill all across the globe.  Not sure though.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of things that look alright, the CFS looks quite nice for the week it counts most.

The CFS has been on a good roll lately.  Consistency is the important thing with that model.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Are the models less tuned into whats going on in Asia and therefore have a tendency to be "surprised" more over there? I assume they arent able to access the same breadth and depth of data that they are from US/DevEuro, but perhaps thats more of a problem for mesoscale models and these day 5+ things are typically handled by satellite data? Just curious if anyone knows. 

More that it takes very small changes of a particular order to cause large perturbations in the modeled solution(s). And Asia is full of potential conduits for said chaos.

[RentonHill]

Biggest difference on the GEFS so far is we got a used condom in the north pacific instead of a giant sperm

[snow_wizard]

I think the models are really beginning to pick up on a likely MJO wave coming into the picture.  No doubt that development would cause a pattern shift.

[Phil]

Ocean effect snow in Florida.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The Pacific is shut down, and that I am excited about the potential ahead is very real.

00z ECMWF in 32 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Tons of potential coming up.  Two runs now with epic cold air coming into the lower 48.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The Pacific is shut down, and that I am excited about the potential ahead is very real.

00z ECMWF in 32 minutes

I'm betting at least one of the next three runs will be very good for us.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting at least one of the next three runs will be very good for us.

I think by Thanksgiving we will be drooling on our phones, laptops, etc, etc.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere.    That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10.   Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict.

The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom.   Extreme amplification.    Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere.    That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10.   Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict.

The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom.   Extreme amplification.    Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th.

 

Agreed. Good post.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 9.5 jet detaching, retracting. Here we go! Now c'mon block set up near ~150 W!

[snow drift]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS does tend to do crazy things after day 10 all the time... usually involving extreme amplification somewhere.    That is probably why the ECMWF stops at day 10.   Because after that point the sheer number of variables in play over time becomes almost impossible to predict.

The 00Z run last night on top... the 00Z run tonight on the bottom.   Extreme amplification.    Lets mark it down and see if ends up anywhere close to either of these solutions on December 6th or 7th.

 

Probably true

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canadian)

[Deweydog]

In a week, day 16 will only be nine days out.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 33 tonight.  Brrrr.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nice GFS ensemble tonight.  We're getting there!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[TT-SEA]

42 here with a bright moon and an east breeze.

[snow_wizard]

Every CPC analog that was a La Nina year was good tonight.  Number one was none other than 2008.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

We're getting into the range where the early stages of the pattern in question should be showing up on the ECMWF tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Next weekend seems to be trending drier... and warmer.  ECMWF shows mid 50s on Friday and maybe around 60 on Saturday and Sunday.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Every CPC analog that was a La Nina year was good tonight.  Number was none other than 2008.

hot dang 1968 showed up. Are we on the 1968 timeline??? 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS another step in the right direction. Pretty good signal for Block and southeast U.S. ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

hot dang 1968 showed up. Are we on the 1968 timeline??? 

68-69 was a nino.

[The Blob]

39 in Troutdale and a little breezy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Anti Marine Layer]

66 F here with a dewpoint of 12 F.

[Kolk1604]

My money's on number 16 for me and number 14 for Rob!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

My money's on number 16 for me and number 14 for Rob!

Hell ya! Book it! Done deal! MBG. Man that would be awesome. Even half of it. I'm not too terribly greedy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hell ya! Book it! Done deal! MBG. Man that would be awesome. Even half of it. I'm not too terribly greedy.

I am! I want records this year.

From 12z, but I like where the 850s are at the end of the EPS. Would like to see that continue