PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phishy Wx]

did yard work in shorts and t-shirt today.  was 58 earlier, now 55 lol

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Why does every building on this campus have the heat on full blast?

I hate it warm with the dp so high.  Feels nasty.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ah well at least we return to more typical La Nina conditions and build the snowpack.

The EPS makes that very clear.  That's a pretty strong signal it has for week two.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks pertty dry after tomorrow.

At least on the GFS... we could use a good dose of this right now.

[snow drift]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

somehow KGEG still recorded ~50" of snow, technically above normal but yeah it was super warm and nothing stuck around more than a couple days

We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard.

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard.

I'm learning that Moderate La Nina can be bad here.  Seems Neutral or weak La Nina are best.  Super Ninas aren't bad either.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe at some point it will be anomalously wet down here. 

Maybe at some point it will not be anomalously wet up here.

Seriously, I hope the moisture track trends south.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Strange fall so far 

[North_County]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maybe at some point it will not be anomalously wet up here.

Seriously, I hope the moisture track trends south.

Same.

[snow drift]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm learning that Moderate La Nina can be bad here.  Seems Neutral or weak La Nina are best.  Super Ninas aren't bad either.

They're hit or miss. Cold neutral or weak nina and +QBO is usually really good.

 

 

[MossMan]

.88” so far on the day, 14.93” for the month, and 57.12” for the year. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS just refuses to get there for the weekend cold snap.  The 18z was even a tad further away than the 12z.  Ironically that may be favorable for the second attempt to be in a better position though.

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We had a handful of snowstorms from October to March, but warm was the prevailing theme. I would rather have a drier and colder winter. Neutral years are better in that regard.

Be careful with statements like that.  You will eventually get burned big time.  Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter.  It broke two "rules".

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Strange fall so far 

Yup.  Wettest ever certainly qualifies.  Actually the wettest fall was 1853.  That year had as much rain in just November that this one had Sep - Nov.  January 1854 went below zero.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Be careful with statements like that.  You will eventually get burned big time.  Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter.  It broke two "rules".

I never said -enso and -QBO were always mediocre. I experienced 1984-85 first hand. 2007-08 was another -enso -QBO winter. There are always exceptions. My statement was merely a generalization.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Be careful with statements like that.  You will eventually get burned big time.  Pretty hard to beat 1984-85 for dry / cold and it was a -QBO -ENSO winter.  It broke two "rules".

There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There are exceptions to every rule. Take 1933-34 for example. 

We will never know what went wrong that winter.  Too little data available to figure it out.  That one has bugged me for many many years now.  Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters.  The NE had a very cold Feb.

On the whole the winters around it made up for every bit of lameness though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

Add about 100 piles to that!

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, The Swamp said:

I'm not a scientist and I struggle to read these here models posted but I can remember for the last 50 years or so when we have these warm southerly AR type systems we usually flip the switch at some point and go into the deep freezer.  Sometimes it's a quick hitter and other times it's a week to ten days of cold either with or with out snow.

Once this things flips, and it will, all your teeth gnashing about hour 384 will be forgotten because the goodies will suddenly appear within 7 days and the signal will get stronger and it will happen.

I'll say it again. December 10th the good stuff begins. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We will never know what went wrong that winter.  Too little data available to figure it out.  That one has bugged me for many many years now.  Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters.  The NE had a very cold Feb.

No matter how hard we try to figure it out... weather is chaotic and random.    Much like the entire universe.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1933 had a dry and warm November. It does appear a dry/warm November is a very bad sign for the upcoming winter... A wet/warm November has more mixed results. 1999 would be an example of a warm/wet November that did not turn out well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We will never know what went wrong that winter.  Too little data available to figure it out.  That one has bugged me for many many years now.  Not only did we torch horribly, but it wasn't a nationwide torch like most failed Nina winters.  The NE had a very cold Feb.

On the whole the winters around it made up for every bit of lameness though.

Here are the PRISM stats for here.... Incredibly warm, not actually overly wet... Except for December. January was just a tad above average and November and February were very very dry. 

November: 55/39 3.54"

December: 47.5/38.2 24.59"

January: 50/37.6 12.37"

February: 54.1/38.3 2.14"

[snow drift]

[Phishy Wx]

Looks like KGEG broke a record high today of 56.  previous was 55 in 1883.  It's also 18 degrees above normal

[snow drift]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Looks like KGEG broke a record high today of 56.  previous was 55 in 1883.  It's also 18 degrees above normal

138 year old record high

[BLI snowman]

December 1933/January 1934 had probably the strongest +EPO and Alaska vortex in the last century. Fairbanks was 23 degrees below average for both of those months. They hit -66 on 1/14.

Cold was very extreme, just bottled up. Except the Greenland blocking must have been extreme as well because the arctic air funneled into the NE and they had a historic arctic blast in late December and then the all time February (-15 in NYC).

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, snow drift said:

With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good.  2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight.  Kind of interesting to look at the other years.

1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record

1932-33 - OR state record low set in February

1949-50 - Well you know...

1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

December 1933/January 1934 had probably the strongest +EPO and Alaska vortex in the last century. Fairbanks was 23 degrees below average for both of those months. They hit -66 on 1/14.

Cold was very extreme, just bottled up. Except the Greenland blocking must have been extreme as well because the arctic air funneled into the NE and they had a historic arctic blast in late December and then the all time February (-15 in NYC).

-66 in Fairbanks on 1/14 is impressive and so is -15 in NYC in February.

[snow drift]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good.  2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight.  Kind of interesting to look at the other years.

1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record

1932-33 - OR state record low set in February

1949-50 - Well you know...

1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow.

1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

-66 in Fairbanks on 1/14 is impressive and so is -15 in NYC in February.

Both are all time records. 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, snow drift said:

1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them.

Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground. Maybe you meant 2015-16?

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground.

The late December “event” in 2014 was pretty decent.  If the models currently had something like that dangling at 144 hours out the server might crash.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With the exception of 2014 all of those winters turned out good.  2014 was a Nino so pretty hard to give it much weight.  Kind of interesting to look at the other years.

1883-84 - Perhaps the best February on record

1932-33 - OR state record low set in February

1949-50 - Well you know...

1995-96 - Nice January / early Feb cold snap and snow.

Don’t forget December 1932.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The late December “event” in 2014 was pretty decent.  If the models currently had something like that dangling at 144 hours out the server might crash.

Yeah, strictly backdoor and clipper-esque though. I don't remember that period ever looking like it had more than glancing blow potential during that particular model-riding odyssey. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, strictly backdoor and clipper-esque though. I don't remember that period ever looking like it had more than glancing blow potential during that particular model-riding odyssey. 

We were fresh off 2013-14. Expectations were much higher then.

Still though, PDX advecting into the 20’s is nothing to sneeze at in the 21st century.

[Snownerd3000]

58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  Wettest ever certainly qualifies.  Actually the wettest fall was 1853.  That year had as much rain in just November that this one had Sep - Nov.  January 1854 went below zero.

Interesting. Oct 1854 was the previous Oct record for negative PDO https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1463181665019256835?s=20

[snow drift]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure if you're thinking of the right winter. 2014-15 had the November cold shots but outside of that was total trash for the whole region. GEG managed a whopping 17.6" of snow and torched every month through DJFM. Never had more than 3" of snow on the ground. Maybe you meant 2015-16?

I lived in Coeur d'Alene. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don’t forget December 1932.

Mid January 1933 also had a pretty monster snowstorm for the Portland area. About 9" in downtown. Fairly light amounts to our north and south, though.

[Phishy Wx]

30 minutes ago, snow drift said:

1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them.

what's up with the snowfall records for Spokane in 1995-96?  most of the season is missing.  someone get fired or something? staffing cuts? equipment malfunction? corrupted data?