PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Definitely more amplification on this ECMWF run.  That pesky cutoff finally helps us later on.

[GobBluth]

At the very least the nagging ridge over the west is gone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Euro still ends up way too progressive. Not even close.

I doubt we see an Arctic airmass impact this area for at least 5 more years.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Euro still ends up way too progressive. Not even close.

You're really reaching here.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I doubt we see an Arctic airmass impact this area for at least 5 more years.

For one thing I don't even agree with his post.  Looks decent to me.  Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Call me crazy, but Day 6.5+ the EURO is much closer to going places perhaps a major cold blast. *Shrugs with one shoulder

6z GFS in 2 hours 48 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

For one thing I don't even agree with his post.  Looks decent to me.  Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there.

We've gone 5 years without one. We could easily go another 5.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're really reaching here.

You looking at the same run I am?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Nice little cold shot there, and surface gradients become favorable.  Worlds better than where we've been.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We've gone 5 years without one. We could easily go another 5.

You've gone that long.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You looking at the same run I am?

I see a greatly improved pattern from where we've been with good potential.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I see a greatly improved pattern from where we've been with good potential.

Yeah. Just needs a little tinkering here and there. Less energy coming off eastern Siberia would be nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You've gone that long.

Yes, hard as it is to believe, we are in the midst of our longest stretch on record without one.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Patience. As we move into the first week of December it all changes as the MJO moves from phase 6 to 7 and blocking dominates. MBG!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes.

Jeez. You’d figure the other shoe would drop down here but I think we are in a cycle that we won’t get out of until after we’re dead.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For one thing I don't even agree with his post.  Looks decent to me.  Not Arctic, but one more step toward getting there.

We’re overdue here too. Last time Arctic air made it to the south sound was early February 2019 juuust barely met the criteria. Was 24 degrees here in the middle of the afternoon with light snow and strong north winds…fun times! Probably the last legit shot of Arctic air was February 2014. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes.

Haven’t been below 25 since March 2019. We did get into the teens in February 2019 but we just haven’t had any legit cold in several years now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes.

February 2019 for me.  

[MossMan]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

February 2019 for me.  

January 2020 for me. 19! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Today was a torch 60/53 0.11” of rain and 9.60” for the month. Looking like we may have a hard time hitting 10” of rain for the month but it’ll be close…fine with me kind of glad rain has underperformed here a bit for once. Everything is just soaked ready for cooler drier weather for a bit. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro finally shows us getting a freeze on 12/7. Would be our latest first freeze since 2008 (12/14). Coldest low this season is still just 34 degrees. 

[Deweydog]

So the Euro was awesome/shitty?

Got it.

[Slushy Inch]

With the new travel restrictions I wonder if the weather models will go crazy again because of the lack of data from planes.

[Phil]

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We haven’t been below 20 since March 2019. Yikes.

Bellingham has only had 10 years without a low below 20 and while they dropped to 15 on January 17, 2020 they haven't gotten into the teens since. It will soon be BLI's 7th longest stretch without going below 20 (680 days), although they'd have to make it to the beginning of February to set the record.

[Skagit Weather]

Ended up with 0.9" for Sunday which puts me at 10.35" on the month and just over 35" on the year. This was looking like it was going to be a dryish year (I average around 35-37" a year), but no longer.

[Bryant]

Whatcom County schools may be closed again tomorrow morning

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Bryant said:

Whatcom County schools may be closed again tomorrow morning

Good to see you back again man!

[High Desert Mat?]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WOW. 

Hour 348? Haven’t we been seeing this for 2 weeks now?  

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah... I definitely haven't given up on December.

Yay. More rain. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Done looking at models for a couple days. Hopefully something will come out of them soon. By January at least. Jim’s enthusiasm isn’t cutting it anymore. Throw in the towel man. Wait until the EPS shows something remotely interesting. That’s the one to watch. Not run to run. Have faith in it. We’re in a temperate climate. 
 

Central Oregon sucks too right now. Could be a bad year.  It is what it is.  

 

 

 

 

[smerfylicious]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Done looking at models for a couple days. Hopefully something will come out of them soon. By January at least. Jim’s enthusiasm isn’t cutting it anymore. Throw in the towel man. Wait until the EPS shows something remotely interesting. That’s the one to watch. Not run to run. Have faith in it. We’re in a temperate climate. 
 

Central Oregon sucks too right now. Could be a bad year.  It is what it is.  

 

 

 

 

That's right. We can call it everyone. Al Gore said it so it must be true.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Meatyorologist]

Oregon Cascades are completely demolished at the end of the 06z. Would be some all time snowfall records with that band.

[smerfylicious]

Wow 06z delivers some goodies. Looks like hr 138 is a nice little shot of wet snow for me, and from that point on it's storm after storm with precip at near freezing temps. Lots of chances for snow. The end of that run is just a monster system.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS more improvements were noted with this run throughout the long range period with a bit better blocking as ridging dominates, tilt of block, a few notches better amplification, increasing heights over Alaska, energy is shunted back towards eastern Siberia, southeast US ridge, and the Pacific jet dies retracting held back west of ~180 W/date line. All encouraging signs.