PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We were fresh off 2013-14. Expectations were much higher then.

Still though, PDX advecting into the 20’s is nothing to sneeze at in the 21st century.

The fact that 2010-11 and 2013-14 each had two completely separate upper level airmasses 3-5C colder than anything seen since is mind-blowing. We just didn't know how good we had it (Flatiron notwithstanding of course).

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

December 1933/January 1934 had probably the strongest +EPO and Alaska vortex in the last century. Fairbanks was 23 degrees below average for both of those months. They hit -66 on 1/14.

Cold was very extreme, just bottled up. Except the Greenland blocking must have been extreme as well because the arctic air funneled into the NE and they had a historic arctic blast in late December and then the all time February (-15 in NYC).

I can see where a raging EPO and tanked NAO could be a nightmare.  I'd be interested to know what some of the things like MJO and QBO were doing to cause that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The fact that 2010-11 and 2013-14 each had two completely separate upper level airmasses 3-5C colder than anything seen since is mind-blowing. We just didn't know how good we had it (Flatiron notwithstanding of course).

The things that's imnteresting to me is the top drawer events we've had since in spite of that.  Winter 2016-17 was very cold overall, Feb 2019, near miss in Jan 2020, and of course the February event last winter.  Worlds better than Jan 1999 through 2005-06, and better than 1937-38 through 1945-46 (Jan 1943 not withstanding) for that matter.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what's up with the snowfall records for Spokane in 1995-96?  most of the season is missing.  someone get fired or something? staffing cuts? equipment malfunction? corrupted data?

There was a period the NWS made the terrible decision to stop doing snowfall measurements, but they later went back to doing it at some stations.  The hole in the SEA records is several years.  Thankfully much of that period was lame.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mid January 1933 also had a pretty monster snowstorm for the Portland area. About 9" in downtown. Fairly light amounts to our north and south, though.

I wasn't aware of that.  Interesting.  The two huge cold events that winter were mostly snowless up here, so a lot of people on here wouldn't have appreciated it.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The things that's imnteresting to me is the top drawer events we've had since in spite of that.  Winter 2016-17 was very cold overall, Feb 2019, near miss in Jan 2020, and of course the February event last winter.  Worlds better than Jan 1999 through 2005-06, and better than 1937-38 through 1945-46 (Jan 1943 not withstanding) for that matter.

It hasn't been a bad stretch by any means in terms of avoiding regionwide duds and seeing significant snows.

Sad as it is, PDX's six year streak of measurable snow right now is actually fairly upper echelon. They technically did have a 10 year streak from 1992-93 to 2001-02, but 1996-97 never got any official love there.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Interesting. Oct 1854 was the previous Oct record for negative PDO https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1463181665019256835?s=20

Wow!  -3 PDO is insane.  No question things are in an abnormal state this year.  Can't wait to see what the implications are for winter.

BTW I don't know what 1854-55 was like.  All of 1855 is missing from the Fort Steilacom records.  Justin may have some insight.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The fact that 2010-11 and 2013-14 each had two completely separate upper level airmasses 3-5C colder than anything seen since is mind-blowing. We just didn't know how good we had it (Flatiron notwithstanding of course).

Ironically, the timing of them still made for a very angsty mid December through January around here.

#neverenough

[snow drift]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what's up with the snowfall records for Spokane in 1995-96?  most of the season is missing.  someone get fired or something? staffing cuts? equipment malfunction? corrupted data?

Yeah, I was looking at the data for CdA. There was a lot of data missing in some years including 2014-15. There used to be some good coop data, but it was discontinued. The WRCC was similar. I might try looking for Cliff Harris' data. 

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  I just looked at December 1854 which I do have and that was one messed up month.  Almost no rain through the 20th and then a foot of rain in the final third.  My guess would be something good happened in Jan or Feb based on that and PDO.

[snow_wizard]

One of the things that was missing in the autumn of 2007 was big time torching, major flooding, and wind.  It was just a very different type of feel that year.  Phil may be right about that being a technical match, but the observed weather was simply wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the things that was missing in the autumn of 2007 was big time torching, major flooding, and wind.  It was just a very different type of feel that year.  Phil may be right about that being a technical match, but the observed weather was simply wrong.

1999?

More than anything this fall has reminded me of 2016.

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  -3 PDO is insane.  No question things are in an abnormal state this year.  Can't wait to see what the implications are winter.

BTW I don't know what 1854-55 was like.  All of 1855 is missing from the Fort Steilacom records.  Justin may have some insight.

Actually a total dud from what I have seen. Fort Steilacoom and Fort Vancouver did record data from that year but for some reason a number of datasets exclude it. But both had their warmest January on record (1849-68) and I don't think there was any late season action, either. Fort Vancouver's record indicates some low level cold there in December but I've never seen a mention of snow.

ENSO reconstructions do portray a weakish Nina that year. Guess we were just due for a dud at that point.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually a total dud from what I have seen. Fort Steilacoom and Fort Vancouver did record data from that year but for some reason a number of datasets exclude it. But both had their warmest January on record (1849-68) and I don't think there was any late season action, either. Fort Vancouver's record indicates some low level cold there in December but I've never seen a mention of snow.

ENSO reconstructions do portray a weakish Nina that year. Guess we were just due for a dud at that point.

I guess so...pretty surprising, although the 1860s have always impressed me way more than the 1850s overall.  The 1860s were insane.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One of the things that was missing in the autumn of 2007 was big time torching, major flooding, and wind.  It was just a very different type of feel that year.  Phil may be right about that being a technical match, but the observed weather was simply wrong.

Pretty sure things got a teency bit stormy a matter of hours after fall ended in 2007.

[BLI snowman]

BTW, here is the ENSO reconstruction back to 1854.

http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/El-Nino-Indices/img/EP-ElNino-ASCII.txt

First strong La Nina event shows up in 1856-57 (epic winter for us) and the first really big El Nino event reflected was in 1868-69 (massive turd for us).

And 1861-62's craziness appears to have come in a negative neutralish state. Similar to years like 1915-16 and 1948-49.

[Snownerd3000]

For anyone that cares, extended gfs continues the colder than normal signal through the end of the year. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1999?

More than anything this fall has reminded me of 2016.

The main difference with 1999 is the West Coast positive height anomaly center was further east that year which resulted in the AR events having more of a SW trajectory instead of the westerly trajectory we've seen this year.  That seems to be a key point in very wet episodes that lead to cold as opposed to ones that don't.  FWIW 1999 has barely shown up as an analog at all on the CPC site this year.

[BLI snowman]

00z ICON looking a touch milder than the 12z with the initial little surge.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

For anyone that cares, extended gfs continues the colder than normal signal through the end of the year. 

Nice!  The Extended GEFS has been on a good roll lately.  You can sure see how the sign flips in AK.

 

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BTW, here is the ENSO reconstruction back to 1854.

http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/El-Nino-Indices/img/EP-ElNino-ASCII.txt

First strong La Nina event shows up in 1856-57 (epic winter for us) and the first really big El Nino event reflected was in 1868-69 (massive turd for us).

And 1861-62's craziness appears to have come in a negative neutralish state. Similar to years like 1915-16 and 1948-49.

It amazes me how the turds back then were just as bad as now.  The big differences is we had at least three epic winters every decade.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what's up with the snowfall records for Spokane in 1995-96?  most of the season is missing.  someone get fired or something? staffing cuts? equipment malfunction? corrupted data?

Good article here.

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-look-back-at-floods-of-february-1996.html?m=1

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty sure things got a teency bit stormy a matter of hours after fall ended in 2007.

It did, but it got chilly right after that.  It never had the big deluge / torch period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see November 1990 appears to have had a similar N/S precip gradient to this year. 

A bit above average precip here, but nothing to write home about. Meanwhile until this month it was BLI's wettest ever. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

1995-96 was okay. The late January and early February cold wave redeemed it. It seemed rather vanilla otherwise. 2014 was a nino, but I rather enjoyed November and December. We had multiple cold shots and quite a few winter storms with snow and freezing rain. Frankly, I would take 2014-15 over 1995-96. I'll have to look at the other two years. I'm not as familiar with them.

1995/96 may have been a more outstanding deal here.  Medium sized lakes froze over thick enough to walk on and we had a couple weeks of off and on snow and then a nice snow going into the main cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting to see November 1990 appears to have had a similar N/S precip gradient to this year. 

A bit above average precip here, but nothing to write home about. Meanwhile until this month it was BLI's wettest ever. 

No doubt this has had a total 1990 vibe to it.  That autumn is burned into my mind.  There was just something about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of N/S temp gradients. January 1950 definitely had one. From Seattle north it is far away the coldest month on record, back to 1895. Here it is 4th. 1949, 1930, and 1937 were colder, by a decent margin. 

1937 seems to be the big one east of the Cascades in Oregon. 

[Cloud]

Appears as if Bellingham have broken a handful of daily rainfall totals this fall. 
 

 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS running now. Hopefully it will show something decent in the 7-10 day range

[Gradient Keeper]

Even though I don't believe the GFS, it would be neat to see the same solution pop up around Day 7 with that deep low and possible snow on the north side of precip. That would be neat. Otherwise Day 6-8 would really like to see the Aleutian ridge either migrate eastward or tilt with a modest ridge merger and less energy moving off Siberia/Bering Strait. Unlikely, but ya never know I suppose.

Day 2

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is January in Covington. Yes, I took a pic of it with my phone. Lol

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Speaking of N/S temp gradients. January 1950 definitely had one. From Seattle north it is far away the coldest month on record, back to 1895. Here it is 4th. 1949, 1930, and 1937 were colder, by a decent margin. 

1937 seems to be the big one east of the Cascades in Oregon. 

Jan 1937 was awesome.  Cold and snow for everyone.  That winter was amazing in Whatcom County.  According to the Clearbrook records there was snow on the ground for over two straight months.  Just a great winter, and almost none of the typical mess you have to go through to get to the good stuff either.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1995/96 may have been a more outstanding deal here.  Medium sized lakes froze over thick enough to walk on and we had a couple weeks of off and on snow and then a nice snow going into the main cold. 

The cold wave was great with two February record lows at KGEG. -24°F on February 2nd 1996 is the February all time record low. I have no complaints about the cold wave.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is January in Covington. Yes, I took a pic of it with my phone. Lol

That's amazing. I would like two orders of that.

[North_County]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt this has had a total 1990 vibe to it.  That autumn is burned into my mind.  There was just something about it.

I don't know how much I believe in Jim's autumn flooding analogs, but I will point out that November 1990 was a double Nooksack flood month. Large, devastating one at the beginning of the month. Smaller one a couple weeks later. And here we are again.

[Phishy Wx]

50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There was a period the NWS made the terrible decision to stop doing snowfall measurements, but they later went back to doing it at some stations.  The hole in the SEA records is several years.  Thankfully much of that period was lame.

wow, what bureaucrat/scientist thought that was a good idea? 

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is January in Covington. Yes, I took a pic of it with my phone. Lol

Easy to pick out January 1950

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 12 runs) for absolutely no reason.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is January in Covington. Yes, I took a pic of it with my phone. Lol

That has to be extrapolated from surrounding areas, because Covington itself didn't have anyone keeping records that I know of in the past.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3

(Past 12 runs) for absolutely no reason.

Very twitchy.