2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[gosaints]

Blob destruction in full action

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Geos]

We knew the Blob would definitely die sooner or later. Would have been interesting having the Blob an a La Niña next year.

[OKwx2k4]

We knew the Blob would definitely die sooner or later. Would have been interesting having the Blob an a La Niña next year.

That would have been pretty neat to see. Going to be neat to see where the ssts are this time next year compared to today.

[Maxim]

Blob destruction in full action

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Good, that thing needs to die and never come back.

[Tom]

Fresh Hot off the Press...the new JAMSTEC December model run for the Dec-Feb period is in...it certainly has gotten a lot colder from its previous November run.  Notice the changes it is seeing in AK from last month's run below...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1nov2015.gif

 

Latest run...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

Precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

SST's...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

 

Current SST's starting to line up quite well as the cooling in the N PAC continues and pushes the warmest anomolies up against NW NAMER..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Let's assume the torch continues through the end of the month and most of us on this sub forum end up close to 10-12F above normal temp wise.  Taking a look at the temp anomalies, the JAMSTEC suggests significant cooling during the Jan-Feb period given how cold it is forecasting temperatures from the Plains/Midwest/Southern Lakes and points south!  I am quite surprised that it's showing such a large amount of real estate covered in such steep negative anomalies.  It almost looks like what the model saw during the 2013-2014 Dec-Feb period.  Not saying it will get that cold, but certainly a reminder that we should be expecting a dramatic flip to this pattern sometime soon.

[gosaints]

Nino rages on and the vortex has yet to weaken.  A transition back to normal might be on the table but its gonna take time to get there.  

[OKwx2k4]

Fresh Hot off the Press...the new JAMSTEC December model run for the Dec-Feb period is in...it certainly has gotten a lot colder from its previous November run. Notice the changes it is seeing in AK from last month's run below...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1nov2015.gif

 

Latest run...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

Precip...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

SST's...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

 

 

Current SST's starting to line up quite well as the cooling in the N PAC continues and pushes the warmest anomolies up against NW NAMER..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Let's assume the torch continues through the end of the month and most of us on this sub forum end up close to 10-12F above normal temp wise. Taking a look at the temp anomalies, the JAMSTEC suggests significant cooling during the Jan-Feb period given how cold it is forecasting temperatures from the Plains/Midwest/Southern Lakes and points south! I am quite surprised that it's showing such a large amount of real estate covered in such steep negative anomalies. It almost looks like what the model saw during the 2013-2014 Dec-Feb period. Not saying it will get that cold, but certainly a reminder that we should be expecting a dramatic flip to this pattern sometime soon.

It would take January-February 1978 type of cold to erase the departures we have in place. I can hope but I have my doubts now about the cold to that extreme. Had the pattern flipped last week I would be loaded with optimism but I'll keep it tempered for now.

[Geos]

If we end up with a January 1985 type flip, then maybe we could manage to go to the JAMSTEC outlook.

 

Is it possible to flip to cold, if just the EPO tanks? Do we even need the polar vortex to break down and break/destroyed/split all the way to the stratosphere? 

I know we've gotten cold without a -NAO before, AO is usually negative though.

[Tom]

It would take January-February 1978 type of cold to erase the departures we have in place. I can hope but I have my doubts now about the cold to that extreme. Had the pattern flipped last week I would be loaded with optimism but I'll keep it tempered for now.

Indeed, I agree with you.  It would take a dramatic flip to encounter such a drastic plunge in temp departures.  I have my doubts also but a colder look is on the table Jan/Feb if you take into account all the other global/statistical models.

[Geos]

Update on the polar vortex and AO.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

It sounds like next week is the make or break it time period for getting the polar vortex to break down in time to allow for a colder than normal back half of the winter. The AO will rise in response to a impulse of energy aimed at the polar vortex from lower latitudes.

 

 

This is the most critical time of year for energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere and will likely determine the state of the stratospheric polar vortex in January and weather conditions across the continental mid-latitudes for the second half of the winter.  A strong pulse of energy transfer is now consistently being predicted for next week by the weather models.  This will start to weaken the polar vortex but by itself is not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex.  In the near term, its most meaningful impact to sensible weather will be to force positive AO conditions with low geopotential height anomalies in the high latitudes of the troposphere and high geopotential height anomalies in the mid-latitudes.  With strongly positive geopotential height anomalies across Eastern North America and Europe, the very mild temperatures will persist likely right through the New Year. 

 

We anticipate additional energy transfer pulses from the troposphere to the stratosphere beyond next week.  We anticipate that the additional energy pulses will be of sufficient duration and amplitude to significantly weaken the polar vortex, most likely in January.  Following the weakening of the polar vortex we expect a reversal to much colder winter weather for the Eastern United States and/or Europe for the latter half of January and into February. However, if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude to force a meaningful change in the polar vortex, there is little reason to anticipate any long term deviations from the mild to very mild temperatures in eastern North America and/or Europe.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I know he and many others only care about the eastern US but assuming he is right and the AO does flip, the coldest relative to average temps won't be over the eastern US. They'll be centered over the bulk of our region. I am almost dead sure of that. I hope he's right this time about the AO though.

[Maxim]

not really buying the dry outlook

http://i.imgur.com/lVtdAEk.gif

http://i.imgur.com/yzIrjIz.gif

[Geos]

I think the dry area will likely be south of the Ohio River mostly and southern Appalachians. Storms seem like they want to avoid the southeast this winter.

 

New NASA model outlooks. Has the outlook similar to the new JAMSTEC... some disagreement with the Northeast though.

 

[Maxim]

So I guess our cold air source comes from the deep south now, and not Canada, LOL. Worthless model...

[Tom]

I think the dry area will likely be south of the Ohio River mostly and southern Appalachians. Storms seem like they want to avoid the southeast this winter.

 

New NASA model outlooks. Has the outlook similar to the new JAMSTEC... some disagreement with the Northeast though.

 

What does it's January outlook look like???

 

 

So I guess our cold air source comes from the deep south now, and not Canada, LOL. Worthless model...

You have absolutely no clue what your talking about in that comment.  Just wrong.  The map above suggests ridging up near NW NAMER that brings "warmer" than normal air up there down into the lower 48.  Think about it, if you dislodge -10F air (which is above normal in that part of the arctic), down into the lower 48...guess what...it will be darn cold.  That is what you need to learn from the map above.  It could still be 0F to -10F in the arctic for that time of year and be ABOVE normal...push that cold south and the Nanook from the North is going to make an appearance.

[Maxim]

What does it's January outlook look like???

 

 

You have absolutely no clue what your talking about in that comment.  Just wrong.  The map above suggests ridging up near NW NAMER that brings "warmer" than normal air up there down into the lower 48.  Think about it, if you dislodge -10F air (which is above normal in that part of the arctic), down into the lower 48...guess what...it will be darn cold.  That is what you need to learn from the map above.  It could still be 0F to -10F in the arctic for that time of year and be ABOVE normal...push that cold south and the Nanook from the North is going to make an appearance.

nah, I'm right actually. If canada torches like that, the odds of us being above normal are greater. Because after all, that's where our cold comes from. It's not that hard to comprehend if you really think about it.

[Maxim]

Any cold air that does end up making its way down here from the Arctic will modify quite a bit too.

[NEJeremy]

Any cold air that does end up making its way down here from the Arctic will modify quite a bit too.

Do you have this unending wish for it to be warm just so you can post on here "lol" and try to prove Tom and other posters wrong?

[Maxim]

Do you have this unending wish for it to be warm just so you can post on here "lol" and try to prove Tom and other posters wrong?

it's not wishing, I'm merely stating facts. 

[jlp]

Yea. Move to Florida and join a forum down there.

[Tom]

nah, I'm right actually. If canada torches like that, the odds of us being above normal are greater. Because after all, that's where our cold comes from. It's not that hard to comprehend if you really think about it.

Do you remember what happened in 2013-14 or 2014-15???  Pop that NW NAMER ridge and Alaska/NW & W Canada "Warm"...got it???  How could you not comprehend that???  When the arctic warms...its almost a given the lower 48 will be colder.  It's the natural response how the atmosphere works and balances out.  It's not rocket science...the last 2 winters should be a good example.  Just saying.

[Geos]

nah, I'm right actually. If canada torches like that, the odds of us being above normal are greater. Because after all, that's where our cold comes from. It's not that hard to comprehend if you really think about it.

 

It's a combination of Canadian air ending up in the eastern US and probably a lot of stormy weather and cloud cover. What's below normal in the south can be above normal in eastern Canada.

[Maxim]

Yea. Move to Florida and join a forum down there.

zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Maxim]

Do you remember what happened in 2013-14 or 2014-15???  Pop that NW NAMER ridge and Alaska/NW & W Canada "Warm"...got it???  How could you not comprehend that???  When the arctic warms...its almost a given the lower 48 will be colder.  It's the natural response how the atmosphere works and balances out.  It's not rocket science...the last 2 winters should be a good example.  Just saying.

Yes, but that's different. That NASA model is showing a torch for all of Canada, even the eastern portions. I just don't see how that would translate to those extreme cold departures in the SE Conus.

[OKwx2k4]

Yes, but that's different. That NASA model is showing a torch for all of Canada, even the eastern portions. I just don't see how that would translate to those extreme cold departures in the SE Conus.

You'll figure it out. Should be almost "knee jerk" to see it, amirite?

[Maxim]

You'll figure it out. Should be almost "knee jerk" to see it, amirite?

Figure what out? There's nothing to figure out, lol. Oh, and I'm still waiting for my "cold December" that you called back in November.

[OKwx2k4]

Figure what out? There's nothing to figure out, lol. Oh, and I'm still waiting for my "cold December" that you called back in November.

You don't know how the SE US can be colder than normal while Canada can be warmer than normal? I'm pretty sure that was the way I read it.

 

I'm pretty sure I covered why I was wrong a week ago if you didn't remember. Maybe you're the one with comprehension problems.

[Snowshoe]

I love the cold and snow, but I don't mind the "torch" conversation. As extreme as previous cold seasons have been, so far this cold season has been the polar opposite. One of my great joys following the weather is experiencing the extremes. If I didn't like extremes I would move south and not stay living at 45° latitude. I may not enjoy this weather much but I will enjoy following storms (even the one's with 3" rains) and the extreme warmth.

 

All of that said, my heart is screaming, " HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!"

[gosaints]

LOL good luck with verification in the northeast on the NASA.  Completely different set of circumstances this year compared to the last 2 winters no matter what happens with any canadian ridge

[NEJeremy]

it's not wishing, I'm merely stating facts. 

Lol

[jaster220]

So I guess our cold air source comes from the deep south now, and not Canada, LOL. Worthless model...

it's not wishing, I'm merely stating facts. 

 

;)

[Geos]

I love the cold and snow, but I don't mind the "torch" conversation. As extreme as previous cold seasons have been, so far this cold season has been the polar opposite. One of my great joys following the weather is experiencing the extremes. If I didn't like extremes I would move south and not stay living at 45° latitude. I may not enjoy this weather much but I will enjoy following storms (even the one's with 3" rains) and the extreme warmth.

 

All of that said, my heart is screaming, " HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!"

 

Did you make that graphic!? lol

 

I don't believe the NASA model in the Northeast either. I don't believe there will be any cold anomalies that negative either. The damage has been done this month with too much ridging in the East. It would take a January 1999 and a February 2007 type deal to get close to that map.

[Maxim]

;)

totally wasn't being sarcastic with that first statement...

[Maxim]

this warm December seems to be taking over people's emotions so far, it's funny to see.

[NEJeremy]

this warm December seems to be taking over people's emotions so far, it's funny to see.

it's not the warm December and it's not surprising that you can't figure it out what's bugging people on this forum.....

[centralweather44]

I think we can all agree with that NEJeremy

[gosaints]

End of january before we see an actual pattern change?? and not just some blip on the radar.  That vortex is oh so strong

[Snowshoe]

Had it since 2010, back when the Taco Bell dog was a popular ad. I don't remember where it came from but I won't take credit for making it.

 

Did you make that graphic!? lol

 

I don't believe the NASA model in the Northeast either. I don't believe there will be any cold anomalies that negative either. The damage has been done this month with too much ridging in the East. It would take a January 1999 and a February 2007 type deal to get close to that map.

[Geos]

I think will save this thread for long range outlooks for the rest of the season. I started a medium range to long range thread. Let's move the talk of the 5-14 day outlooks over there, and save this one for the season and monthly outlooks.

[westMJim]

In looking up  information for where several locations in West Michigan stand so far this month I found one more analog winter and that winter?  1889/1890! In the winter of 1889/90 (only Lansing has records for that winter) Lansing coldest and snowiest month was March the second most snow fell in November of 1889.  November, December. January and Febuary were all warmer then average. That trend was also noted at Detroit but not so much at the Soo.  Bottom line is with the winters of 1931/32, 1923/24 and now 1889/90 all showing it being warm all winter with a colder, snowier March that is what I will go with for this winter. So I would not expect a big change until maybe March