SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This setup looks like last years cold snap around this same time ... Sadly it was a very dry one but I did have a low of 14f on November 30th but no snow. I dread the thought of a repeat but the setup is super similar. The cold snap this time last year was pretty meh down here. What the GFS is showing is better. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looking at the 06z GFS. It shows an overrunning event for W. Oregon the day after Thanksgiving. lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 The cold snap this time last year was pretty meh down here. What the GFS is showing is better.True! -- but the current model out put at this point is nearly a mirror setup... So, that is my concern. Not that I should really be concerned at least we have the potential!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 12Z GFS looking good so far. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z GFS not looking quite as awesome as the 6z, but still pretty good. Looks like lowland snow possible starting around hour 144-150. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Through hour 129 the 12z is looking fine. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Doing some model comparison v.s. 6z, 12z looks nearly identical thus far through HR 132-144, timing has moved ahead a bit on this run as well. That's a good sign too. Let's see how far south-southwest the arctic trough ultimately ends up digging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 So far I am liking the 12z GFS!! Continues the goods... at hour 120 there is plenty of cold and the low placement at hour 144 is looking very, very nice. So in 5 days or less this could all begin to become reality. Woohoo!!! Hour 120: Hour 144: Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 HR 168 v.s. 6z trough is slightly further east, not digging as far offshore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Colder at HR 180, but ridge is more progressive not holding firm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 In the solid -10c to -15cish at hour 180.... Not bad... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Brrrrrrrr by hour 192 but very very dry... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Brrrrrrrr by hour 192 but very very dry... Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 8.34.44 AM.jpg Perfect if there is snow on the ground already. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Turkey day looks cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Cold continues to hold so far through hour 210... Upper levels are going more easterly from North Easterly. Should /could really draw some bitterness for the Gorge folks. Hour 210: 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like it is a short to medium lived event with average of 3" (down the I-5) of snow on this run but better than nada... By hour 240 things are heading back toward climo for us Westonians... Hour 240: Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 HR 240 may not moderate much for PDX I see a PDX-DLS of at least 6mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, at least below 4000' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 HR 240 may not moderate much for PDX I see a PDX-DLS of at least 6mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, at least below 4000'Even way out at HR 288 PDX-DLS is 6-8mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, we're not moderating as quickly as this model run shows. Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Even way out at HR 288 PDX-DLS is 6-8mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, we're not moderating as quickly as this model run shows. Nope.Welcome back. I don't know that speculation on hr 288 is productive. I hope this happens. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Welcome back. I don't know that speculation on hr 288 is productive. I hope this happens.Thanks, nope definitely not productive. Anything can happen after day 6 for crying out loud. Nice to see the arctic front showing up at HR 144 on the 12z WRF. Hope you've been well up there in the hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Well that was my first model ride of the year... I feel like I need a cigarette... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looking at the 12z, Rob is right. The low level cold would hang on for quite a while. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Pretty concerned by the trend on the Canadian. Are its ensembles out? The 12z GFS is great, Hours 141-150 is a 3-5" snow event for my location too... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run.We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time. I dismiss all mode runs I don't like as outliers! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Now I'm wondering if the Ensembles continue to be colder than the operational as well hold the ridge more firm as they have, or will 12z GFS ENS handle the trough the same. Now, this is great, but imagine if the Ensembles are anything like 6z were..... means 00z could be even colder tonight. Speculation of course because we all know too well this isn't near a lock yet... It is encouraging though to see timing moving ahead with colder air arriving around HR 144 into Washington. Find out around 10:10 AM. We've seen models change at the last minute before too many times. If we see the next 2 days continue this, slowly move timing ahead with each subsequent run and not lose Ensemble support, because then we'd have the pattern setting up upstream by day 2 or 3. Once the 500mb pattern develops it is nearly a foregone conclusion what occurs downstream over WA/OR 2-3 days later. That would put us at a window of 4-5 days cold arriving. Confidence would definitely grow at that point....then we can start to say this is looking likely. Not yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Now I'm wondering if the Ensembles continue to be colder than the operational as well hold the ridge more firm as they have, or will 12z GFS ENS handle the trough the same. Now, this is great, but imagine if the Ensembles are anything like 6z were..... means 00z could be even colder tonight. Speculation of course because we all know too well this isn't near a lock yet... It is encouraging though to see timing moving ahead with colder air arriving around HR 144 into Washington. Find out around 10:10 AM. We've seen models change at the last minute before too many times. If we see the next 2 days continue this, slowly move timing ahead with each subsequent run and not lose Ensemble support, because then we'd have the pattern setting up upstream by day 2 or 3. Once the 500mb pattern develops it is nearly a foregone conclusion what occurs downstream over WA/OR 2-3 days later. That would put us at a window of 4-5 days cold arriving. Confidence would definitely grow at that point....then we can start to say this is looking likely. Not yetCautiously Optimistic!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I dismiss all mode runs I don't like as outliers! That's the spirit! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run.Yeah, 12z GEM wasn't good, trough slides more southeast only marginally cold at 850mb briefly, but strong east wind for PDX with a low off to the southwest. 925mb temps, low-level cold is evident. Edit, before day 10 moisture moving north, strong east wind likely snow/zr event for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time. Canadian was the first model to show the event. I don't like when the Canadian is showing something so different now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Strange bright object in the sky here today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Strange bright object in the sky here today. Here too. Heavy rain tonight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Here too. Heavy rain tonight. Thankfully that will mostly miss this area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I will go with whatever the 12Z ECMWF shows! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Strange bright object in the sky here today.Must be an UOO (Unidentified orbiting object) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Must be an UOO (Unidentified orbiting object) I think maybe the Earth is still in orbit around its sun... I was wondering if that was the case with no evidence recently. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 FWIW weather.com has highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s for the Everett area mid-late next week. Mix of sun and rain/snow showers. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I think maybe the Earth is still in orbit around its sun... I was wondering if that was the case with no evidence recently.I was talking about the Moon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Canadian was the first model to show the event. I don't like when the Canadian is showing something so different now. Could have sworn it was the Euro. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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