HighlandExperience Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I'll be quite surprised if everything you stated here verifies.I hope you are right. Considering the turd fest of the last few winters I am not sure though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 The best winters for lake ice since 1890 from what I've been able to put together are. 1892-931906-071908-091915-161924-251928-291929-301936-371942-43 (maybe)1948-491949-501956-57 Since 1957 I would imagine Dec 1972, Dec 1983, Nov/ Dec 1985, Feb 1989, and Dec 1990 probably did pretty well also. Jan 1969 probably had too much snow to allow good ice to form. More recently I did see good ice on decent sized lakes in Feb 1996 There have been some more recent events that produced plenty of iced-over ponds/small lakes as well, from talking to friends/family in the area. I know Dec 1998 did in the Willamette Valley where I lived at the time. And I know Dec 2009 did in western WA. Yeah...there are many instances of deep cold in the 19th century. I focused pretty much on 1892 to present. He said 1978-79. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I hope you are right. Considering the turd fest of the last few winters I am not sure though. The next week is a turd fest for the mountains. And its going to turn much warmer with southerly flow and some showers. You can pretty much count on that at this point based on recent ECMWF runs. Hopefully it turns better for the mountains in 2 weeks. Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty ugly even then. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112912!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Actually, if you are getting lows in the teens to lower 20s, and you're only going above freezing for a few hours every day, even if you're getting up to 35-40 you'll get some pretty thick ice. I've seen it here many times. People fall through the ice and die in all sorts of temps and bodies of water, unfortunately. The afternoon sun will still whittle it down when you're talking temps well above freezing every day. Obviously the ice was thick enough for these folks to go out on for a time, but there's no way it'd be thick enough to support an extended period with weight on it when the daytime weather conditions guarantee the ice weakening anyways. Should be common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 The next week is a turd fest for the mountains. And its going to turn much warmer with southerly flow and some showers. You can pretty much count on that at this point based on recent ECMWF runs. Hopefully it turns better for the mountains in 2 weeks. Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty ugly even then. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112912!!chart.gif Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 The afternoon sun will still whittle it down when you're talking temps well above freezing every day. Obviously the ice was thick enough for these folks to go out on for a time, but there's no way it'd be thick enough to support an extended period with weight on it when the daytime weather conditions guarantee the ice weakening anyways. Should be common sense. Well, there were probably other individuals who ventured out on the ice somewhere with similar temps and didn't fall through. You only hear about the ones that die. I'm just saying that I've seen pretty thick ice form with afternoon temps near 40, as long as most of the day is below freezing and it gets well below freezing at night. Amount of direct sunlight definitely is a factor as well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly. Not the point at all. Just that there is not much between now and then and its still crap for the mountains even that far out. I want snow in the mountains as much as everyone else. I am desperately looking for signs of good snow up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Well, there were probably other individuals who ventured out on the ice somewhere with similar temps and didn't fall through. You only hear about the ones that die. I'm just saying that I've seen pretty thick ice form with afternoon temps near 40, as long as most of the day is below freezing and it gets well below freezing at night. Amount of direct sunlight definitely is a factor as well. I don't know why anyone would take the chance in those conditions. Something merely being frozen obviously doesn't necessarily equate to something being able to support weight on it. There's "pretty thick ice" and then there's ice that you'd actually want to try to walk or skate on. These guys wisely waited until the 17th straight day below freezing to go for their river drive back in January 1930 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Why?? Betting against the ECMWF for the next week? Not a good idea. You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run. You spend too much time focused on the GFS. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/I think I know what (or who) you are too focused on. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I think I know what (or who) you are too focused on. No doubt. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 These guys wisely waited until the 17th straight day below freezing to go for their river drive back in January 1930 riverfrozen2 (1).jpg Yeah, I'm sure dozens perished in the preceding 16 days trying the same thing. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Going out on the ice is about more than just temperatures Some bodies of water have springs which inject fresh, relatively warmer water, to certain areas of the body of water at a constant basis. Thus keeping the ice thin in spots even after weeks of sub freezing weather. If you are going to go out on a frozen body of water, especially one that is not heavily used for ice skating, ice fishing, etc... I would recommend knowing something about the body of water. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Going out on the ice is about more than just temperatures Some bodies of water have springs which inject fresh, relatively warmer water, to certain areas of the body of water at a constant basis. Thus keeping the ice thin in spots even after weeks of sub freezing weather. If you are going to go out on a frozen body of water, especially one that is not heavily used for ice skating, ice fishing, etc... I would recommend knowing something about the body of water. Exactly. Its never totally safe. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 There have been some more recent events that produced plenty of iced-over ponds/small lakes as well, from talking to friends/family in the area. I know Dec 1998 did in the Willamette Valley where I lived at the time. And I know Dec 2009 did in western WA. He said 1978-79. Oops! Makes sense. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly. And ironically the best frame IMO. At day 10 the ECMWF looks poised to deliver some chillier air. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 And ironically the best frame IMO. At day 10 the ECMWF looks poised to deliver some chillier air.Right. There is some potential there if you extrapolate again. I am cheering for mountain snow. I want to see some hope. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Here is a pic of the Little Deshutes River in Central Oregon. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Why?? Betting against the ECMWF for the next week? Not a good idea. You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run. You spend too much time focused on the GFS. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ I'm just saying it takes a pretty special setup to deliver the kind of warmth you're talking about. The 850s aren't even all that warm for much of the run. Then you have the fact you stated it basically won't rain all week. I just can't see the kind of warmth and degree of dryness you are talking about verifying. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Here is a pic of the Little Deshutes River in Central Oregon. I do hope this isn't another case of the coldest weather of the entire season happening before winter even gets here. I think we will get one more stab at something good before the wheels fall off sometime in January or very early Feb. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Sounds like everyone needs to get together and binge watch Ice Road Truckers. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Can someone provide the links to all these weather models? I would like to start viewing and analyzing them myself. I just spent an hour trying to navigate my way through NOAA website and can't find them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I'm just saying it takes a pretty special setup to deliver the kind of warmth you're talking about. The 850s aren't even all that warm for much of the run. Then you have the fact you stated it basically won't rain all week. I just can't see the kind of warmth and degree of dryness you are talking about verifying. I did NOT say it will be dry all week. I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week. Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF. It will rain this week. Of course. And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward. That is what it shows. Sorry. I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it. Got it?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I do hope this isn't another case of the coldest weather of the entire season happening before winter even gets here. I think we will get one more stab at something good before the wheels fall off sometime in January or very early Feb.You just made Jesse's list. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I did NOT say will not rain all week. I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week. Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF. It will rain this week. Of course. And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward. That is what it shows. Sorry. I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it. Got it?? I guess I misread your original post. It looked you said multiple days would be in the 60s and or a taste of spring. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I guess I misread your original post. It looked you said multiple days would be in the 60s and or a taste of spring. You half read. I said ONE really warm day. And there seems to be dry breaks nicely timed in the afternoons. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter... We'll see. We got cold in Nov 2006 and then went on to have better in January. That was a pretty awesome El Nino winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Sounds like everyone needs to get together and binge watch Ice Road Truckers.Winter might return March 1st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I did NOT say it will be dry all week. I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week. Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF. It will rain this week. Of course. And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward. That is what it shows. Sorry. I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it. Got it?? What are you debating over, exactly? The GFS and ECMWF solutions look relatively similar to me. Both are seasonally mild and zonal, with the GFS running a bit wetter/cooler but not substantially so. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Quite impressive to see nearly every station on both sides of the Cascades running considerably colder than yesterday. Nice cold snap no matter how you slice it. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 You just made Jesse's list. Aside from the fact that I entertained the same possibility last night and actually had Jim call ME out on it. Looks like winter will end right on schedule, at the beginning of meteorological winter on Tuesday. The middle to latter part of next week looks kind of mild and blah. Pay attention Matt. You have been slipping lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter... Lots of places got just about as cold in mid-November, late November and right around New Years last winter. PDX had a record low or two the first week of December last year! We still have big shoes to fill to catch up to 2014-15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 We have had more frost accumulation already this year then total snow last winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 What are you debating over, exactly? The GFS and ECMWF solutions look relatively similar to me. Both are seasonally mild and zonal, with the GFS running a bit wetter/cooler but not substantially so. Just discussing the details of the ECMWF. Ran through the next 180 hours and its interesting that each afternoon is basically dry and Thursday has the potential to be quite warm. Nothing more than that. Seems that was interpreted as a scorching hot and totally dry week ahead! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 We have had more frost accumulation already this year then total snow last winter.Last year it got pretty cold in mid-November, about as cold as now. Than it snowed in late November and colded again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same. Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same. I thought PDX was setting record lows. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 I thought PDX was setting record lows.The first few days, then the torch set in. Might come in a little earlier this year. We are a few days ahead and not quite as cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Winter 2014-15: Three cold air intrusions. Winter 2015-16: One so far. I hope this winter can be as good as 2014-15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2015 Report Share Posted November 29, 2015 Last year it got pretty cold in mid-November, about as cold as now. Than it snowed in late November and colded again! There were the two "cool" snaps last year in November. This has produced much more impressive lows in the Willamette Valley. East side it is fairly similar to last year. The duration has been a bit longer with this one cool snap this year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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