Tom Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think LES will be better than what LOT is saying...usually as we get closer to the event models pick up on it more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hopefully this will not be a huge virga storm for us. We have been very lucky with saturation so far this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Your right about that Tony, I don't think we have had 1 storm this year where Virga was a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 MKX graphic. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thinking 1-3" around my area. Going with 1" across the river. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Going with 1" across the river.Most models would suggest around 2" or more for Dubuque, but models usually over do the amounts, so that's why I'm going with 1-3"..because 1" is probably realistic, but for that very slim chance it actually does what the models are showing, I'll go with 1-3"... here is my full prediction for all of E Iowa: http://www.pulsatingweather.com/2/post/2014/02/snow-tomorrow-afternoon.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well it looks like it is going to be a quiet 7 days for us, nothing on the horizon to get excited about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks l,ike we are on the downslope of winter. Dubuque beats out all of the bigger cities in NE Iowa to date this year in snowfall so I consider it a normal winter In 2 weeks I will be switching to the hope we miss any other snowfalls outside of a monster...once its clearly headed towards the next season I embrace it. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks l,ike we are on the downslope of winter. Dubuque beats out all of the bigger cities in NE Iowa to date this year in snowfall so I consider it a normal winter In 2 weeks I will be switching to the hope we miss any other snowfalls outside of a monster...once its clearly headed towards the next season I embrace it.I'm in the mood now where I want a big storm or spring. Some mild weather sounds awesome right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think we still have a long way to go winter wise, this pattern in our region will be hard to break into a sustained warming trend. As we get farther into Feb and closer to March, storms are juicier and there could still be one or two monster storms. Most big Blizzards occur later in Winter when the seasons begin to change and the south begins to warm up much more. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a couple biggies in Feb/Mar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking at warnings/watches for this one Dubuque and Chicago they go almost out of their way to avoid us! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Kind of bummed that this potential monster with all this moisture looks like it will pass ORD/DTW to the south. Whats everyones opinion on chances of North shift by 100 miles before it actually hits? Seems mostly everyone locally is exuding confidence that this is set in stone 2-4 inches for me and maybe 6 inches near Ohio border =( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'd say chi town has had an a+ winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Been hearing some people/mets say LES setup may be hampered by the ice on the lake, but the coverage isn't solid/continuous. Sat image from today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 There is still a lot of open water on Lake Michigan, I still think we have a decent setup of LES. 00z NAM showing Cook/Lake counties under the .40qpf. Fluff that up to 6" or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM looks pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Skilling showed these tonight. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z GFS brings the 6" line pretty far north into IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like LES is being indicated a better tonight and 00z NAM looks a tad wetter overall and GFS to as well out here so I am gonna go wid 3-5 inches for N IL with some local 6+ along lake if we get any lake enhancement/effect. Have to watch out for dry air though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like LES is being indicated a better tonight and 00z NAM looks a tad wetter overall and GFS to as well out here so I am gonna go wid 3-5 inches for N IL with some local 6+ along lake if we get any lake enhancement/effect. Have to watch out for dry air though.Good call IMO. Thinking similar amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thinking WWA will be issued overnight from LOT and they'll prob touch on the LES potential lakeside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good call IMO. Thinking similar amounts. Not trying to sound like such a weenie here but typically what seems to end up happening a lot is dry-slot is more vigorous and the snow band ends up setting up NW. Not saying tommorow is gonna happen but something to keep an eye on it as storm blossoms tom morning/afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thinking WWA will be issued overnight from LOT and they'll prob touch on the LES potential lakeside. Worst case could see warnings along Lake but that dry air might win it. It can really hurt ouch so iffy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 This storm has potential to push the main heavier band of snow farther north esp if it strengthens some more. As you indicated, dry slots with theses type of systems can push farther north and help us on the northern edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Worst case could see warnings along Lake but that dry air might win it. It can really hurt ouch so iffy. The lake effect will have to really aid the area, otherwise like you said, dry air will be a problem. Will find out if the ice has an effect or not. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT hasn't been thrilled with the set up for Lake Enhancement. Although when you have these strong systems stay to the south it can really enhance snowfall even if other parameters are not the best. We'll see what the trends are tomorrow, but 2-4 with a isolated 5 or 6 inch amounts near the Lake sounds like a good bet for us in NE IL. The main defo band definitely looks to stay well to the south, but hopefully this will trend wetter on the northern edge. The SREF's have been solid around here which is definitely a good sign. Most of the members are between 5-6 inches for ORD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Right now I think it is anyone's guess what will happen tomorrow. Just so much uncertainty. All we can do now is watch the radar tomorrow and see what the trends are with it. Let's just all hope to do better than we expected! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR and RAP showing around 1" of snow by early morning that is not in NWS grids for the DSM area.This is good news for C.IA as it will allow the atmosphere to satuatre earlier for the main show. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR and RAP showing around 1" of snow by early morning that is not in NWS grids for the DSM area.This is good news for C.IA as it will allow the atmosphere to satuatre earlier for the main show.Certainly a good sign. I don't think dry air should be too big of an issue down there, will be a much bigger one for us up here trying to squeeze out a couple inches. Best of luck to you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Certainly a good sign. I don't think dry air should be too big of an issue down there, will be a much bigger one for us up here trying to squeeze out a couple inches. Best of luck to you!Yeah-- DSM area needs all the luck it can get for snow events over 4" this year!!! Roughly 24" of snow so far-- OHHH BOy-- but the local news media makes it out to be like it's been such a LONG WINTER. Not in C.IA--- the ground has been bare about 1/2 the days since DEC 1st. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah-- DSM area needs all the luck it can get for snow events over 4" this year!!! Roughly 24" of snow so far-- OHHH BOy-- but the local news media makes it out to be like it's been such a LONG WINTER. Not in C.IA--- the ground has been bare about 1/2 the days since DEC 1st.Probably because of the cold still. We have like 38" so far this year, so it's been pretty good. Dubuque has the snow depth at 8", but I have a lot of places over 12" in my yard!! It's awesome seeing this snow depth!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 We're going to be lucky to break 4" here in Lincoln, the area that was supposed to get hit the hardest as of model runs from yesterday. Just awful, awful awful awful. It's saddening, you guys in DSM have 24", we have 8". We have no snow on the ground, and the ground is literally cracking. My yard looks like pictures from the dust bowl, and I'm being serious. We were supposed to do way better than DSM. I just don't get this year, or the past 3 at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think most of the chicago viewers here have a good shot at 3-5 inches. 5 inches being lakeside and further south. The 00z NAM was showing good moisture, remember the NAM did a great job at predicting last storms underperformance within 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Skilling in his blog says lake moisture becoming more evident possibly 4-6 inches along lakeside saying it will be wild card. 2-4 west out towards Rockford. If 06z comes in as wet or wetter I expect advisory up this way as far NW as towards Rockford and north towards far SE WI last 2 counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will be interesting tommorow night if dry-slot is much more robust and snow band ends up furthur NW. Plenty of times this has end up being the case. Will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better not dry slot me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 KC is in a prime spot for this storm and the next one...wouldn't be surprised if you have close to 18" by this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Better not dry slot me. Not in KS and most of MO but maybe IL/IN/OH as this lifts NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good Luck to all. that's all it is. Seems most on here enjoy winter weather-- even the cold like myself. Why the majority of the general public is so agst cold/snow in this part of the country baffles me-- enjoy it why it lasts--- a brutal summer is coming. IF you had to pick one---Furnace out on a -15F degree night (I heat with wood-- no issues) or A/C out with temps around 100F. Even if I didn't heat with wood,, I would take the winter idea over the summer. WHY-- much easier/more options to heat a home then cool one. A/C out-- your screwed. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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