With the late start I wonder if our odds increase for a double dip, even though this is more Nada than Nina.

Ensembles means I look at past day 10. GEFS.

I think you’re placing too much emphasis on ENSO and not enough on subseasonal elements that have been governing the mid-latitude pattern since November. Those factors don’t just go away because you choose to ignore them.

The thing is this is the best base state there is for us.

The thing is this month has had a straight up Nino signature. I think that aspect will be impossible to sustain given Nino 3.4 is almost down to -1.0 now. CDAS say -1.5.