ECMWF comes dangerously close to something really good on this run.

It will in some places. I think there is potential for serious egg in the face with this though. They should have defined it better. As I've said though, I'm not sure exactly how this play out.

Positive splats!

Here are some maps for the end of the month into early Dec as the ECMWF blasts an arctic front down the Plains. This is one random run, but there is some ensemble support for at least something like this.

Only one of those that didn't really work out at all was December 1979, which only resulted in a 12 hour limp noodle Fraser River trickle on the 15th. Of course that pattern more or less reset a few weeks later and then crushed us.