I know that this is this place's MO, but please try not to stress yourself out over the details at day 10+ babe. Now is the time to cheer for the general pattern and farm cheap likes from 384 hour snow maps. There will be plenty of time to weenie out over precipitation and the southern progress of the cold air next month. We're seeing what we need to see right now, have faith, xoxo

The AIFS could use some slight adjustments, but it's definitely on board with the general idea as well. At this point every major model is now hinting at a favorable pattern for us as we get into January. Some have the details working out better for us than others, but I'm just stoked that they all generally want to set up the board favorably for us. That's realistically the best one can hope for at this range. If the 12z GEFS and EPS come in strong here, we might actually be in business here. Everyone please keep Phil in your thoughts during this difficult time for him.

It's hard sometimes but gotta try to have patience. I don't think that the things that have been talked about wrt January are suddenly invalid. The 12z GEFS is still retrograding the western ridge in the long term, which is what you want to see. It should happen, so it's more a question of just how quickly it happens and to what extent. Not to put any faith in individual op runs at long range, but there was a decent looking storm taking shape at the end of the GFS run. That is only January 7 and would be earlier than the time that I think your area has the better chances, but who knows.

I think the Jets have a better chance of winning than the Seahawks. And a Jets win would be almost as good as a Seahawks win.

Yes. When a ridge bridge forms the -NAO block and the GOA block have a tendency to equalize. Roll that forward a few days and we're in the freezer.