Going to get HOTT!

Absolutely.

gotta pray this solution holds for another week.

The only 4 professions in the world where your not allowed to make a mistake are a doctor, pilot, auto technician and a meteorologist.

It's a pretty big deal when La Nina is weak. Almost every cold blast we get lines up with MJO phase 7-8-1-2 (with a 10 day delay for the cold). Phase 1-2 is the best for our cold, but it can work with Phase 7 and maybe Phase 8 as well if it's low amplitude and more Indian Ocean based. As soon as the MJO hit Phase 1-2 last winter, we got snow 10 days later. If you follow the patterns you would've known the 3+ weeks of the GFS/Euro giving us false hope in January early. Waiting until February was the right call, since it was an MJO parallel event. If La Nina is stronger, the MJO matters less. We can get by with a less favorable setup. That has happened on a few occasions recently in our good stretch of -PDO winters. Now that's gone. If the above is too much, I can keep it simple When MJO convection is over the Pacific Ocean, that causes the jet stream to get active and throw a bunch of cutoff energy our way. This messes up the AK ridge that we need. If the MJO convection is over the Indian Ocean, we see more ridging over the Pacific Ocean as well as a better chance at the jet retracting back, helping us retrograde. Now that's an oversimplification but we've been seeing Pacific (or a completely dead) MJO almost all winter. And that looks to continue.