Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter.
Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot.
while December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6° and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6" most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe
Correct, but those were the toasty late 80's when things favored NMI. Us in SMI just snagged a piece of the action with the Nov bliz that dumped up to 2 feet in north central areas of the LP. Then, those same areas got another 2 foot bliz in January when that long thaw came crashing down. I actually was playing tourist in Traverse City area one weekend that January and there was still plenty of snow in the high country, less down at the lake front in town. Basically no snow back home in SEMI, but that was pretty common during that era. The other PDO (+/-) was controlling then and lots of Nino's were ruling the day. Between the early snowstorms (Oct 19th, Nov 15th, and some at the holidays) and the return of winter later in January, I actually got lots of snowmobiling in even in SEMI (Genesee Cnty) and still consider that one of the better seasons of that era for my region.
I will say that while we won't likely repeat 2013-14 on the cold when mby had 81% of the days from Dec 8th to March 8th at or below 32*F, I don't think we are looking at 4+ week stretches of boring and warn like last December either. I'm thinking we will bounce up and down until late Dec, and have some really warm spells throughout winter that could/will lead to good chances of big storms brewing up. Should be strong contrasts and great bliz ingredient season with the STJ playing ball.
Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9" Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5
Annual avg for mby = 49.9" Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)
2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."