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Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm

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#51
Tom

Posted 17 November 2015 - 08:54 PM

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Let's see if the Euro holds it's juice/track on tonight's 00z run.  Really surprised there is so much consistency on track 3 days out.  GFS seems to be having its medium range problems as far as intensity goes.

 

Is the GGEM known to be wetter than other models?

Ya, its usually the one model that spits out wetter solutions.  However, UKIE is pretty wet in IA thru HR 72 so has some credence. 



#52
Geos

Posted 17 November 2015 - 09:09 PM

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Holy cow, the GEM is pretty heavy on the snowfall!

 

post-266-0-30505400-1447822242.png

 

Gets even crazier when you see the predicted lows over the snow cover Sunday night.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#53
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 09:14 PM

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That map is 10:1 ratios as well. Euro should be interesting. 



#54
Tom

Posted 17 November 2015 - 09:19 PM

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Maxim is pulling his hair out...j/k...Ha!  All in fun... B)

 

I think winds down the lake will effect accumulations for Lake/Cook counties...water temps in the low 50's will certainly keep things warmer lakeside.  Having the snow fall at night will help with accumulations.

 

mswt-00.gif



#55
Geos

Posted 17 November 2015 - 09:29 PM

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The lake temperature is going to take nose dive this weekend. Should be able to knock off a few degrees by Friday night through upwelling and CAA.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#56
Illinois_WX

Posted 17 November 2015 - 09:48 PM

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Man, I hope we get something here. The snow dome will literally be over Eastern Nebraska once again if these are to pan out as of now. Hoping for a further south solution, not sure its even possible at this point though.

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#57
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:08 PM

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0z EURO at HR 72 has a 1007 L in OK. 

0z GFS at HR 72 had a 1010 L down in Texas. 



#58
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:13 PM

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Gonna be another big euro run but might have the swath of snow even farther north than the GGEM.



#59
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:15 PM

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996 L in E. Michigan at HR 96.



#60
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:20 PM

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Sounds like 12-14 inches (10:1 ratio map) in Southern WI. 1+ QPF SW WI ENE through most of Central/Upper Michigan

 

Looks like a pretty big cutoff to the south and Chicago is on the southern end. 

 

14-15 inch max just to the NW of Milwaukee.



#61
East Dubzz

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:26 PM

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"Another big euro run".. ? I don't remember the euro being that strong at all in past runs, but maybe I'm mixing up my thoughts.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#62
Madtown

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:26 PM

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Map?

#63
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:27 PM

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Don't have maps, getting info from American WX.

 

Sounds like this thing explodes much earlier than previous runs.



#64
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:28 PM

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eiQVefol.jpg



#65
Madtown

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:30 PM

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Holy $#!+

#66
Madtown

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:32 PM

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If it's that wound up, climb tells me this is a Minneapolis special.

#67
East Dubzz

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:32 PM

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Oh that would be nice for those back in my hometown, but not so friendly for me down here.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#68
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:34 PM

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Wide range of solutions yet, but def. potential for someone to see a lot of snow. Fun times ahead.



#69
Maxim

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:36 PM

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If it's that wound up, climb tells me this is a Minneapolis special.

lol



#70
Madtown

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:41 PM

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No need to laugh, just watch.
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#71
Money

Posted 17 November 2015 - 10:43 PM

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No need to laugh, just watch.

 

Highly doubt it. 

 

I think the euro is prolly as far north as this thing can go. Probably will end up weaker than euro and stronger than GFS with Chicago/Geos area getting good snows. 



#72
Grizzcoat

Posted 18 November 2015 - 01:26 AM

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Seems HPC or WPC is siding with the more robust totals---

 

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif   16.66KB   3 downloads

 

 

Pretty impressive from them.

 

 


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#73
Grizzcoat

Posted 18 November 2015 - 02:15 AM

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From Quad Cities Discussion: 

 

SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
DRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCH
BIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE IN
LINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCE
FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANY
KIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THE
TROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#74
james1976

Posted 18 November 2015 - 03:26 AM

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Wow at the Euro!



#75
WBadgersW

Posted 18 November 2015 - 03:33 AM

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Somebody gave the Euro way too many steroids.

I'm liking where I sit. Both the 06z GFS and Euro look great.

#76
Tom

Posted 18 November 2015 - 05:13 AM

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EURO sniffed out this storms potential a couple days ago, now it seems like other models following suit and this could end up becoming a "Clipper" type system on Steroids.  00z EURO has a tightly packed storm with 20-30mph winds blowing the snow sideways.  Seems like the track will be to close for comfort around here, I think IA/N IL/S WI are in the right spot currently (Chicago area questionable).  Ground temps/850's marginal in the city, however, any adjust to track this far out is speculation ATM.

 

Euro Ensemble/Control in pretty good agreement...

 

06z GFS...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

 

 

 


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#77
Tom

Posted 18 November 2015 - 05:58 AM

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06z NAM...

 



#78
GDR

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:03 AM

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I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

#79
gosaints

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:10 AM

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I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

Unlikely in this setup



#80
jaster220

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:12 AM

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Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter. 

November 17,1989
Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot. 

while  December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6°  and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6"  most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe

 

Correct, but those were the toasty late 80's when things favored NMI. Us in SMI just snagged a piece of the action with the Nov bliz that dumped up to 2 feet in north central areas of the LP. Then, those same areas got another 2 foot bliz in January when that long thaw came crashing down. I actually was playing tourist in Traverse City area one weekend that January and there was still plenty of snow in the high country, less down at the lake front in town. Basically no snow back home in SEMI, but that was pretty common during that era. The other PDO (+/-) was controlling then and lots of Nino's were ruling the day. Between the early snowstorms (Oct 19th, Nov 15th, and some at the holidays) and the return of winter later in January, I actually got lots of snowmobiling in even in SEMI (Genesee Cnty) and still consider that one of the better seasons of that era for my region.

 

I will say that while we won't likely repeat 2013-14 on the cold  when mby had 81% of the days from Dec 8th to March 8th at or below 32*F, I don't think we are looking at 4+ week stretches of boring and warn like last December either. I'm thinking we will bounce up and down until late Dec, and have some really warm spells throughout winter that could/will lead to good chances of big storms brewing up. Should be strong contrasts and great bliz ingredient season with the STJ playing ball.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
Tom

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:12 AM

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I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

Gotta shake off your warm bias...pattern is favorable for IA to get hit by this snowstorm.  Stop trying to deny it.

 

I'll be out of pocket all day, keep the posts coming guys!



#82
Niko

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:13 AM

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EURO sniffed out this storms potential a couple days ago, now it seems like other models following suit and this could end up becoming a "Clipper" type system on Steroids.  00z EURO has a tightly packed storm with 20-30mph winds blowing the snow sideways.  Seems like the track will be to close for comfort around here, I think IA/N IL/S WI are in the right spot currently (Chicago area questionable).  Ground temps/850's marginal in the city, however, any adjust to track this far out is speculation ATM.

 

Euro Ensemble/Control in pretty good agreement...

 

06z GFS...

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

I can see this having big potential. Time will tell. SEMI now is looking to be getting not much, if any. Probably some furry activity or a period of light snow at best with no accumulations. 

 

BTW...big time cold should really knock down our temperatures this weekend. Most of us on here will be shivering.


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#83
jaster220

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:15 AM

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06z NAM...

 

Not bad. If this can dig a little bit as you were hinting at yesterday, we'll end up ok. Looks like a score of 3" for me over in SCMI may be my bogey. Anything above would be bonus snow. It's only 21 Nov, not big snow climo territory by any means.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#84
gosaints

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:25 AM

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Seeing the EURO makes  me think of the Madison jackpot glory days. 



#85
gosaints

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:28 AM

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12z NAM is stronger so far on the leeside of the rockies



#86
gosaints

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:36 AM

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Through 48 it looks like the NAM will stick on the north side of guidance


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#87
Geos

Posted 18 November 2015 - 06:56 AM

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I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

 

There is blocking to the north. Storm is going to travel more easterly and then curve once it gets past western MI.

 

Iowa is golden unless your way north or way south, then it may be a bit tricky.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#88
Geos

Posted 18 November 2015 - 07:05 AM

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What's really interesting about the NAM is that it curves towards the rest of the guidance on the eastern end.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#89
james1976

Posted 18 November 2015 - 07:36 AM

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DMX still isnt buying the moisture the models are showing. Hmm...



#90
Geos

Posted 18 November 2015 - 07:39 AM

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DMX still isnt buying the moisture the models are showing. Hmm...

 

All these storm this month have been juiced up, not too hard to believe another one with colder air can't do the same!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#91
james1976

Posted 18 November 2015 - 07:41 AM

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They dont wanna buy into the moisture the GFS is showing, even though GGEM and Euro are spitting out more. I dont understand what they are talking about.



#92
WBadgersW

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:03 AM

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GFS slower and South. It definitely seems like models are trending slower. Placement still seems up to debate.

#93
East Dubzz

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:06 AM

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I hope the slower result takes place, not only because having it take place more towards nighttime would be better, but because if this does occur, I have someone traveling to the Quad Cities mid afternoon and I would rather them not have to deal with snow.

Definitely liked that 12z GFS run, and the amount of moisture the models are throwing out right now. I personally don't think those amounts will come to be true, but the fact that it's showing plenty of moisture availability is something I like to see, especially as we start to inch closer to the event.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#94
Iowa2015

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:16 AM

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Like slower Now just another 20ish miles south & I'll be close to middle of the those hot pink purple color like after sunset would maximum accumulation

#95
WBadgersW

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:41 AM

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Gem is South, looks good for Northern and Central Illinois.

Makes sence, most of the storms this fall have taken a more Southern route.

#96
East Dubzz

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:42 AM

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The DVN has snow accumulations for ~3" on Friday night. While I know this will change, man that is nice to see again.


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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 13.00"

June rainfall total: 3.69"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0


#97
gosaints

Posted 18 November 2015 - 08:53 AM

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Ukie looks alot like the 0z Euro



#98
Geos

Posted 18 November 2015 - 09:36 AM

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GEM is pretty strong still I heard. Limited to my phone for the time being.

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#99
Money

Posted 18 November 2015 - 09:38 AM

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Ukie is strong and north like 0z euro

#100
Geos

Posted 18 November 2015 - 10:20 AM

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Hearing the EURO is a bit south of the 0z run.

 

Actually here is the map. Control runs are the same for today.

 

post-266-0-36222100-1447870679.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 15.32", 6/12

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history