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ENSO Discussion

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#1851
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 01:48 AM

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The seeds for this cold spell were sown way before the recent spike and probably unrelated to ENSO. It has to take awhile for the atmosphere to respond.


The atmosphere is already in an El Niño state, for all intents and purposes. In fact, February was one of the most niño-like tropical forcing patterns I’ve ever seen.

The extratropical wavetrain also plays a huge role in seeding ENSO (which it has already done), so it’s a two way street. The QBO and tje lower frequency, solar-driven warm pool cycle also play significant roles.

So it’s not like the atmosphere is out of sync or something..it’s perfectly in sync. A niño can easily teleconnect to a cool, stormy West under certain boundary conditions.
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#1852
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 01:53 AM

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Here was the tropical forcing structure in February. It doesn’t get more El Niño than this (red is anomalous subsidence, blue is anomalous convection).

The residual effects on the wavetrain following the SSW just completely smothered the climatological EOF stations across the NH.

2D1EJ8b.gif

You can even see the STJ/diabatic feed into the SW US there. It’s a fully coupled machine. The question is whether the SSW and hydrostatic perturbation to the structure of the tropical cell network was enough to pull off what the 2013 event did, and force another climate shift lasting at least several years. We’ll see.
  • Black Hole likes this
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#1853
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 02:43 PM

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I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.

And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).

Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.
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#1854
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 March 2019 - 03:08 PM

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I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.
And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).
Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.

it's funny how many tends to beleave the El ninos being the east coast cold snowy winter's when in fact it a relative new trend of el ninos being blockbusters and !a ninas being the suck fests.it use to be as you said the other way around the ninos were the suck fests and the ninas were the blockbusters.
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#1855
snow_wizard

Posted 12 March 2019 - 12:20 AM

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Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3.  Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again.  This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Number of consecutive days lows 35 or lower = 43 (ongoing)

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 61

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#1856
Phil

Posted 12 March 2019 - 09:38 AM

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Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3. Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again. This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.


Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think.

Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month.
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