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ENSO Discussion

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#1851
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 01:48 AM

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The seeds for this cold spell were sown way before the recent spike and probably unrelated to ENSO. It has to take awhile for the atmosphere to respond.


The atmosphere is already in an El Niño state, for all intents and purposes. In fact, February was one of the most niño-like tropical forcing patterns I’ve ever seen.

The extratropical wavetrain also plays a huge role in seeding ENSO (which it has already done), so it’s a two way street. The QBO and tje lower frequency, solar-driven warm pool cycle also play significant roles.

So it’s not like the atmosphere is out of sync or something..it’s perfectly in sync. A niño can easily teleconnect to a cool, stormy West under certain boundary conditions.
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#1852
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 01:53 AM

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Here was the tropical forcing structure in February. It doesn’t get more El Niño than this (red is anomalous subsidence, blue is anomalous convection).

The residual effects on the wavetrain following the SSW just completely smothered the climatological EOF stations across the NH.

2D1EJ8b.gif

You can even see the STJ/diabatic feed into the SW US there. It’s a fully coupled machine. The question is whether the SSW and hydrostatic perturbation to the structure of the tropical cell network was enough to pull off what the 2013 event did, and force another climate shift lasting at least several years. We’ll see.
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#1853
Phil

Posted 06 March 2019 - 02:43 PM

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I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.

And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).

Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.

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#1854
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 March 2019 - 03:08 PM

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I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.
And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).
Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.

it's funny how many tends to beleave the El ninos being the east coast cold snowy winter's when in fact it a relative new trend of el ninos being blockbusters and !a ninas being the suck fests.it use to be as you said the other way around the ninos were the suck fests and the ninas were the blockbusters.
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#1855
snow_wizard

Posted 12 March 2019 - 12:20 AM

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Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3.  Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again.  This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1856
Phil

Posted 12 March 2019 - 09:38 AM

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Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3. Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again. This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.


Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think.

Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month.

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#1857
snow_wizard

Posted 13 April 2019 - 10:08 AM

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This could be the moment of truth for the future (or lack therof) for this El Nino.  For the first time in a year the Equatorial subsurface sea temps at 155 meters are not warmer than normal.  If we can avoid a WWB for a while longer this Nino may peak in the early summer and fall from there.  As of right now no WWB is in sight.

 

 

Attached Files

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1858
snow_wizard

Posted 13 April 2019 - 10:12 AM

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Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think.

Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month.

 

In spite of the recent WWB the subsurface profile west of 180 has become less favorable for El Nino in recent days.  I think we might have used up the excess heat in the Western Equatorial Pacific with the warm ENSO conditions of the past year.  Also bear in mind we had a major Nino not too long ago.  I question whether the system really "needs" another year of El Nino at this point.  My hope for next winter is neutral.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1859
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 April 2019 - 08:30 PM

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The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.



#1860
Phil

Posted 13 April 2019 - 09:43 PM

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The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.


It did?
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#1861
snow_wizard

Posted 13 April 2019 - 10:32 PM

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The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.

 

I wouldn't go that far yet.  The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1862
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 April 2019 - 10:12 AM

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I wouldn't go that far yet.  The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling.


Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator

#1863
Phil

Posted 14 April 2019 - 02:40 PM

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Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator


cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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#1864
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 15 April 2019 - 04:13 PM

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Uhhhhh

 

57164025_10217212660500294_8376366170680


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1865
Phil

Posted 15 April 2019 - 07:30 PM

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El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

:rolleyes:

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#1866
ShawniganLake

Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:04 PM

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El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

:rolleyes:

87-88.

#1867
Phil

Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:32 PM

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87-88.


That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view.

BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude.

Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950.

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#1868
Black Hole

Posted 19 April 2019 - 09:21 AM

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That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view.

BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude.

Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950.

As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. 


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#1869
snow_wizard

Posted 20 April 2019 - 05:28 PM

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El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

:rolleyes:

 

It seems to me that what used to be "normal" ENSO behavior has ended.  Nothing really surprises me any more.  One very noteworthy thing is the last WWB did nothing to increase the subsurface warmth.  In fact the overall subsurface average is falling.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1870
snow_wizard

Posted 20 April 2019 - 05:30 PM

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As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic for neutral by autumn.  Still very tenuous though.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#1871
Phil

Posted 22 April 2019 - 01:42 PM

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Watch for another round of WWB activity May 5th - 15th.

Looks like a legit MJO orbit this go around with forcing getting into the EPAC/WHEM under a summer-mode NAM/extratropical wavetrain. Might be enough to torpedo the KW return/thermocline shoaling and trigger another downwelling wave, especially given the preceding easterlies.

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#1872
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 24 April 2019 - 10:49 AM

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59112082_10217272945847390_3073857370183


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1873
Phil

Posted 24 April 2019 - 11:03 AM

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Those SSTA maps (to the right of the graph) are so laughable. Not a chance in hell they verify.

Why does anyone pay attention to this trash model? It’s completely worthless. Better off with a random guess.

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#1874
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 24 April 2019 - 11:17 AM

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59112082_10217272945847390_3073857370183

 

 

LOL


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1875
Phil

Posted 24 April 2019 - 06:18 PM

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Here comes the next WWB cycle. I think this one could end up being quite strong, actually. Comes at a critical stage in the KW return/shoaling cycle and should resume warming the subsurface from late May into June.

LN4PcI7.png

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#1876
Phil

Posted 05 May 2019 - 12:40 PM

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Big WWB.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
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#1877
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 22 May 2019 - 10:54 AM

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Some recent updates from Ventrice  and Andy Hazelton over the last week.

 

Looking at some of the @NWSCPC ENSO products this morning - the upwelling Kelvin wave is starting to surface in the Eastern Pacific. Central Pacific still looks fairly warm for now. The overall subsurface warmth is actually below normal for the first time in over a year.

 

D6xDHJlUIAAQoiM.png

CFSv2 is starting to reamplify the western Pacific Low-Frequency forcing state again during the second half of June. This is opposite to what we'd we expect for El Nino advancement. This is more in lines with La Nina forcing.

D7BnS8FWwAACzVG.png

 

This wave will likely result in another trade surge over the Pacific in the Week 2-3 time frame.

D7LfY5fXkAYx0zf.png

 

I think we are getting close to the point in time on bailing on an "El Nino" signature in the Pacific this Summer... ESPECIALLY after looking at the amplitude of the upwelling Oceanic Kelvin wave entering the far eastern Pacific. This is the strongest upwelling KW in awhile

 

D7LftUhXsAA-BBp.png