ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

The seeds for this cold spell were sown way before the recent spike and probably unrelated to ENSO. It has to take awhile for the atmosphere to respond.

The atmosphere is already in an El Niño state, for all intents and purposes. In fact, February was one of the most niño-like tropical forcing patterns I’ve ever seen.

 

The extratropical wavetrain also plays a huge role in seeding ENSO (which it has already done), so it’s a two way street. The QBO and tje lower frequency, solar-driven warm pool cycle also play significant roles.

 

So it’s not like the atmosphere is out of sync or something..it’s perfectly in sync. A niño can easily teleconnect to a cool, stormy West under certain boundary conditions.

[Phil]

Here was the tropical forcing structure in February. It doesn’t get more El Niño than this (red is anomalous subsidence, blue is anomalous convection).

 

The residual effects on the wavetrain following the SSW just completely smothered the climatological EOF stations across the NH.

 

 

You can even see the STJ/diabatic feed into the SW US there. It’s a fully coupled machine. The question is whether the SSW and hydrostatic perturbation to the structure of the tropical cell network was enough to pull off what the 2013 event did, and force another climate shift lasting at least several years. We’ll see.

[Phil]

I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.

 

And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).

 

Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.

[weatherfan2012]

I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.

And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).

Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again.

it's funny how many tends to beleave the El ninos being the east coast cold snowy winter's when in fact it a relative new trend of el ninos being blockbusters and !a ninas being the suck fests.it use to be as you said the other way around the ninos were the suck fests and the ninas were the blockbusters.

[snow_wizard]

Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3.  Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again.  This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.

[Phil]

Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3. Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again. This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.

Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think.

 

Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month.

[snow_wizard]

This could be the moment of truth for the future (or lack therof) for this El Nino.  For the first time in a year the Equatorial subsurface sea temps at 155 meters are not warmer than normal.  If we can avoid a WWB for a while longer this Nino may peak in the early summer and fall from there.  As of right now no WWB is in sight.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think.

 

Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month.

 

In spite of the recent WWB the subsurface profile west of 180 has become less favorable for El Nino in recent days.  I think we might have used up the excess heat in the Western Equatorial Pacific with the warm ENSO conditions of the past year.  Also bear in mind we had a major Nino not too long ago.  I question whether the system really "needs" another year of El Nino at this point.  My hope for next winter is neutral.

[Mr Marine Layer]

The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.

[Phil]

The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.

It did?

[snow_wizard]

The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.

 

I wouldn't go that far yet.  The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling.

[Mr Marine Layer]

I wouldn't go that far yet.  The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling.

Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator

[Phil]

Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhhh

 

[Phil]

El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

 

[ShawniganLake]

El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

 

87-88.

[Phil]

87-88.

That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view.

 

BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude.

 

Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950.

[Black Hole]

That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view.

 

BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude.

 

Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950.

As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. 

[snow_wizard]

El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely..

 

 

It seems to me that what used to be "normal" ENSO behavior has ended.  Nothing really surprises me any more.  One very noteworthy thing is the last WWB did nothing to increase the subsurface warmth.  In fact the overall subsurface average is falling.

[snow_wizard]

As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic for neutral by autumn.  Still very tenuous though.

[Phil]

Watch for another round of WWB activity May 5th - 15th.

 

Looks like a legit MJO orbit this go around with forcing getting into the EPAC/WHEM under a summer-mode NAM/extratropical wavetrain. Might be enough to torpedo the KW return/thermocline shoaling and trigger another downwelling wave, especially given the preceding easterlies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

Those SSTA maps (to the right of the graph) are so laughable. Not a chance in hell they verify.

 

Why does anyone pay attention to this trash model? It’s completely worthless. Better off with a random guess.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

 

LOL

[Phil]

Here comes the next WWB cycle. I think this one could end up being quite strong, actually. Comes at a critical stage in the KW return/shoaling cycle and should resume warming the subsurface from late May into June.

 

[Phil]

Big WWB.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Some recent updates from Ventrice  and Andy Hazelton over the last week.

 

Andy Hazelton‏ @AndyHazelton May 17

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Looking at some of the @NWSCPC ENSO products this morning - the upwelling Kelvin wave is starting to surface in the Eastern Pacific. Central Pacific still looks fairly warm for now. The overall subsurface warmth is actually below normal for the first time in over a year.

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice May 20

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CFSv2 is starting to reamplify the western Pacific Low-Frequency forcing state again during the second half of June. This is opposite to what we'd we expect for El Nino advancement. This is more in lines with La Nina forcing.

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

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This wave will likely result in another trade surge over the Pacific in the Week 2-3 time frame.

 

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

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I think we are getting close to the point in time on bailing on an "El Nino" signature in the Pacific this Summer... ESPECIALLY after looking at the amplitude of the upwelling Oceanic Kelvin wave entering the far eastern Pacific. This is the strongest upwelling KW in awhile

 

 

 

[snow drift]

On 11/24/2018 at 11:38 PM, snow_wizard said:

 

Yup...just ignore all of the mitigating factors this year.

Bump

[Phil]

That was back when I was predicting a +ENSO in 2019 and catching flack from the icepussies instead of the heat misers. Good times.

Though technically 2019/20 ended up a weaker +ENSO in terms of ONI than 2018/19, despite a more canonical atmospheric response (+IOD was the booster). I thought it would be the other way around.