Phil Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals. And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter). Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 I think it’s a misconception, especially after the last several years, that +ENSO has to = warmth in the west. That is absolutely not true, even if +ENSO is an easier conduit for western warmth (which it is..there’s no denying that). Out here on the east coast, some of the coldest, and snowiest months (and winters in general) on record have been La Niñas and cold neutrals.And while our weather patterns are more chaotic and less dynamically chained to the structure of ENSO/warm pool forcing, the North Pacific wavetrain is most certainly capable of its own degree of freedom, especially if the boundary conditions set peripherally over Eurasia/NATL constructively promote a severing of the metaphorical shackles imposed by the WPAC warm pool/ENSO machine (which the SSW did this winter).Look at cases like 1968/69, 1972/73, or to a lesser extent the early parts of 2006/07 and 2009/10. The idea that +ENSO is a death sentence for western winters is really an artifact of more recent times. Back in the LIA, it wasn’t nearly as much of an issue as it is now since the climatological location of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool was so much farther to the Southwest and consolidated. If that is happening again (long way from knowing that) then the ENSO/wavetrain relationship across the NPAC will change once again. it's funny how many tends to beleave the El ninos being the east coast cold snowy winter's when in fact it a relative new trend of el ninos being blockbusters and !a ninas being the suck fests.it use to be as you said the other way around the ninos were the suck fests and the ninas were the blockbusters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2019 Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3. Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again. This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 12, 2019 Report Share Posted March 12, 2019 Intense upwelling of cold water in region 1+2 right now is already spilling into Nino region 3. Looks like the El Nino is going to get the stuffins knocked out of it again. This has to be the most unstable ENSO I've ever seen.Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think. Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2019 This could be the moment of truth for the future (or lack therof) for this El Nino. For the first time in a year the Equatorial subsurface sea temps at 155 meters are not warmer than normal. If we can avoid a WWB for a while longer this Nino may peak in the early summer and fall from there. As of right now no WWB is in sight. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2019 Going to be hard to wish this one away, I think. Not only is there a downwelling KW present but there’s another WWB in the pipeline for later this month. In spite of the recent WWB the subsurface profile west of 180 has become less favorable for El Nino in recent days. I think we might have used up the excess heat in the Western Equatorial Pacific with the warm ENSO conditions of the past year. Also bear in mind we had a major Nino not too long ago. I question whether the system really "needs" another year of El Nino at this point. My hope for next winter is neutral. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Marine Layer Posted April 14, 2019 Report Share Posted April 14, 2019 The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 14, 2019 Report Share Posted April 14, 2019 The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain.It did? 1 Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2019 The potential El Nino just faded out into oblivion pretty much like all of our recent chances for rain. I wouldn't go that far yet. The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Marine Layer Posted April 14, 2019 Report Share Posted April 14, 2019 I wouldn't go that far yet. The next few weeks to couple of months will be very telling.Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 14, 2019 Report Share Posted April 14, 2019 Pretty much the whole Pacific has slightly above average SSTs. It is not concentrated near the Equator Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longtimer SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 16, 2019 Longtimer Report Share Posted April 16, 2019 Uhhhhh Quote Snowfall Precip 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 82.13" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 16, 2019 Report Share Posted April 16, 2019 El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely.. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 16, 2019 Report Share Posted April 16, 2019 El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely.. 87-88. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 16, 2019 Report Share Posted April 16, 2019 87-88.That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view. BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude. Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted April 19, 2019 Report Share Posted April 19, 2019 That’s a 1/70 return rate. So yeah, pretty unlikely from a statistical point of view. BTW, that was a late August peak, which was bizarre but only 8 weeks removed from the climatological window for peak ONI amplitude. Verbatim the CFS actually peaks this one in late June, which has never happened going back to at least 1950.As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 El Niño peaking in July? Seems likely.. It seems to me that what used to be "normal" ENSO behavior has ended. Nothing really surprises me any more. One very noteworthy thing is the last WWB did nothing to increase the subsurface warmth. In fact the overall subsurface average is falling. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted April 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2019 As usual, give it another 1-2 months and it will probably start to close in on reality. The spring predictability barrier is very real. I'm cautiously optimistic for neutral by autumn. Still very tenuous though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2021-22 stats Total Snowfall = 14.1" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = T Coldest Low = 15 Lows 32 or below = 53 Highs 32 or below = 5 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2019 Report Share Posted April 22, 2019 Watch for another round of WWB activity May 5th - 15th. Looks like a legit MJO orbit this go around with forcing getting into the EPAC/WHEM under a summer-mode NAM/extratropical wavetrain. Might be enough to torpedo the KW return/thermocline shoaling and trigger another downwelling wave, especially given the preceding easterlies. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longtimer SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 24, 2019 Longtimer Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Quote Snowfall Precip 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 82.13" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 Those SSTA maps (to the right of the graph) are so laughable. Not a chance in hell they verify. Why does anyone pay attention to this trash model? It’s completely worthless. Better off with a random guess. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted April 24, 2019 Report Share Posted April 24, 2019 LOL Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats: Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021) Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022) Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022) Total snowfall: 10.0" Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record* Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7" Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @358jerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 25, 2019 Report Share Posted April 25, 2019 Here comes the next WWB cycle. I think this one could end up being quite strong, actually. Comes at a critical stage in the KW return/shoaling cycle and should resume warming the subsurface from late May into June. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 5, 2019 Report Share Posted May 5, 2019 Big WWB. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif 1 Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longtimer Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted May 22, 2019 Longtimer Report Share Posted May 22, 2019 Some recent updates from Ventrice and Andy Hazelton over the last week. Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton May 17MoreLooking at some of the @NWSCPC ENSO products this morning - the upwelling Kelvin wave is starting to surface in the Eastern Pacific. Central Pacific still looks fairly warm for now. The overall subsurface warmth is actually below normal for the first time in over a year. Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice May 20MoreCFSv2 is starting to reamplify the western Pacific Low-Frequency forcing state again during the second half of June. This is opposite to what we'd we expect for El Nino advancement. This is more in lines with La Nina forcing. Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours agoMoreThis wave will likely result in another trade surge over the Pacific in the Week 2-3 time frame. Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 4h4 hours agoMoreI think we are getting close to the point in time on bailing on an "El Nino" signature in the Pacific this Summer... ESPECIALLY after looking at the amplitude of the upwelling Oceanic Kelvin wave entering the far eastern Pacific. This is the strongest upwelling KW in awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 10, 2021 Report Share Posted July 10, 2021 On 11/24/2018 at 11:38 PM, snow_wizard said: Yup...just ignore all of the mitigating factors this year. Bump 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 That was back when I was predicting a +ENSO in 2019 and catching flack from the icepussies instead of the heat misers. Good times. Though technically 2019/20 ended up a weaker +ENSO in terms of ONI than 2018/19, despite a more canonical atmospheric response (+IOD was the booster). I thought it would be the other way around. Quote PWS Links NOAA/CWOP: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=120&units=english&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=full Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-05-18/2022-05-18/daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.