October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

What a gorgeous day is was here in SEMI. It will continue all week, Thank goodness I did not adjust the AC to Heat in my home. I think I'll wait another week or 2.

Still just a bit warm down my way over the last few days. Looking forward to the weekend.

[jaster220]

I'm just too busy following Matthew to contribute much to the regularly scheduled programming. Have a buddy who works at the Cape and I stayed with him a couple years ago. Looks like things are gonna get pretty windy in his 'hood starting tonight! 

[Niko]

Still just a bit warm down my way over the last few days. Looking forward to the weekend.

Me too...cannot wait for the chill to arrive. My highs on Saturday are projected to be in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s. Slightly milder on Sunday and I mean, slightly, by a couple of degrees.

[jaster220]

LOL @ this zone forecast for the Cape. (just in case you were planning to go out on your lunch break I guess.. ):

 

 

 

..winds "decreasing" in the pm. Gotta love the break-down so you can time your jeb walk. Just say zone fcast = stay the f*ck inside idiots! 

[gabel23]

While there is a hurricane ready to make landfall, this is occurring out in western nebraska.......

 

 

Alliance, Alliance Municipal Airport (KAIA)Lat: 42.06°NLon: 102.8°WElev: 3927ft.

http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.png

Light Snow Fog/Mist

33°F

1°C

Humidity 96% Wind Speed N 8 mph Barometer 30.12 in (1020.7 mb) Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 1.25 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 6 Oct 10:49 am MDT 

[Niko]

LOL @ this zone forecast for the Cape. (just in case you were planning to go out on your lunch break I guess.. ):

 

20161007 Cape Canaveral point fcast.PNG

 

..winds "decreasing" in the pm. Gotta love the break-down so you can time your jeb walk. Just say zone fcast = stay the f*ck inside idiots! 

[james1976]

 

While there is a hurricane ready to make landfall, this is occurring out in western nebraska.......

 

 

Alliance, Alliance Municipal Airport (KAIA)Lat: 42.06°NLon: 102.8°WElev: 3927ft.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.png

Light Snow Fog/Mist

33°F

1°C

Humidity 96% Wind Speed N 8 mph Barometer 30.12 in (1020.7 mb) Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 1.25 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 6 Oct 10:49 am MDT

No way! What city?

[OKwx2k4]

LOL @ this zone forecast for the Cape. (just in case you were planning to go out on your lunch break I guess.. ):

 

20161007 Cape Canaveral point fcast.PNG

 

..winds "decreasing" in the pm. Gotta love the break-down so you can time your jeb walk. Just say zone fcast = stay the f*ck inside idiots!

Lol. That's expert level analysis right there!! Love it!

[jaster220]

So many interesting things with Matty...so little time..funny how he ended up right where (under) Intellicast's logo which is the 'cane swirl. ESP on their part??

 

 

 

Holy motha of all that's decent if this should verify!

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Global Oscillations Update.

I've noticed with literally every run, it keeps pushing the positive spikes further and further away. Continued indications to me that all the major players are here, just waiting on the game to start.

 

AO

 

 

 

NAO

 

EPO

 

PNA

 

The possibility I'm leaning towards with the PNA and EPO is that they really don't ever actually spike that high when all is said and done while still easing the N PAC low towards the west coast long enough to pile siberian air up to the northwest. Ridging should return to the west coast and eastern Alaska sending the Aleutian low back to its "correct"(best) location around week 3 or close to the last week of October. When that happens, conditions are going to change dramatically. CFS has picked up on hints of this at times for the opening weeks of November but loses it into its typical torch mode in the rest of the winter months. I think fun times are ahead for the patient ones. :-)

[james1976]

[gabel23]

No way! What city?

Alliance, NE. It's located in the panhandle of Nebraska. This storm today has a classic spring time look to it, minus the fact that it's just a weak wave. 

[OKwx2k4]

[james1976]

Can you elaborate on that thought/question?

Was talking about the hurricane getting down to 921.

[OKwx2k4]

Was talking about the hurricane getting down to 921.

Got it. Thanks.

[Niko]

Sometimes, we can all use a break from weather:

 

Enjoy this.....

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biker-gets-instant-revenge-hit-185042473.html

[Niko]

My first 30's of the season are on their way for this weekend. Its gonna be a cold Saturday evening.

[CentralNebWeather]

Frost advisory here in central Nebraska. Forecast low is 31. We have had falling temps all day and now at 42 degrees with north winds gusting to 40 mph. Has a November feel, loving it. 5 inches of snow reported south of Valentine Nebraska (northwest part of the state).

[Tom]

Frost advisory here in central Nebraska. Forecast low is 31. We have had falling temps all day and now at 42 degrees with north winds gusting to 40 mph. Has a November feel, loving it. 5 inches of snow reported south of Valentine Nebraska (northwest part of the state).

There you are! I was thinking about you earlier today when I saw the frost/freeze advisories hoisted today. How you been? Excited for tracking some winter storms this year??

[Tom]

Alliance, NE. It's located in the panhandle of Nebraska. This storm today has a classic spring time look to it, minus the fact that it's just a weak wave.

A fairly convective lil storm I'd say even though it doesn't have a wound up SLP. Hope we can track stronger storms as such going forward.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks tom. I have checked in daily just busy teaching and coaching football. Very cold at practice today; wearing heavy coat, stocking cap, and gloves. Just love this time of year and the changeable weather. You'll start hearing more from me now (hopefully that is a good thing). Have enjoyed reading people's thoughts on the upcoming winter. Keep it coming.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks tom. I have checked in daily just busy teaching and coaching football. Very cold at practice today; wearing heavy coat, stocking cap, and gloves. Just love this time of year and the changeable weather. You'll start hearing more from me now (hopefully that is a good thing). Have enjoyed reading people's thoughts on the upcoming winter. Keep it coming.

Will do! Congrats on the snow!

[james1976]

Nebraska is off to a fast start. Nice. 5 inches for Oct 6? Lets keep it going.

[Tom]

So far so good for Floridians as central FL has spared a direct hit of the "eye" of Matthew.  I noticed last night the storm was tracking more NNW rather than NW into C FL.  I believe the highest wind gust has been 107mph near Cape Canaveral where they just skirted the eye wall.  The NAM model caught this track quite well actually.  Both GFS/EURO had a direct hit into FL but that hasn't happened.  Still, this is causing a lot of wind damage/heavy rain and storm surge.  

 

Locally, not a bad 7-day...noticing next week Wed/Thu forecasts are being lowered...

 

 

 

 

Great night for baseball tonight!   First pitch @ 8:15pm locally with a temp near 53F.  Go Cub's Go!

[Tom]

It's snowing in the Arrowhead of MN!

 

Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO)Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.

http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.png

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity 93% Wind Speed W 8 mph Barometer 29.93 in Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 27°F (-3°C) Last update 7 Oct 8:13 am CDT

[OKwx2k4]

 

It's snowing in the Arrowhead of MN!

 

Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO)Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.png

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity 93% Wind Speed W 8 mph Barometer 29.93 in Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 27°F (-3°C) Last update 7 Oct 8:13 am CDT

Awesome! The subfreezing line briefly made its way into Oklahoma a little while ago for a couple of hours in the Panhandle. It's so dreary looking outside right now but it feels so refreshing!

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies from yesterday are showing the northern tier cooling along with a ton of blocking near Greenland and the Arctic.  A vigorous Aleutian Low develops which will migrate eastward into the GOA by Week 2 and pump warmer air into the lower 48 and Canada.  However, it will be cold enough to snow in CA and lay down a snow cover.  JMA/GEFS are indicating a southern stream storm track out of the GOM.  Might have to contend with more tropical storm systems later this month.

 

Pretty strong signal for a -NAO Week 2 as well.  Looking into Week 3 & 4, some hints the -AO will continue and NW NAMER above normal temp anomalies.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100700/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

CFS continues the snowy trend for CA. for the rest of the month...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/10/07/basis00/namk/weas/16103112_0700.gif

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

Nebraska is off to a fast start. Nice. 5 inches for Oct 6? Lets keep it going.

Really impressive for the first week of October!! 

 

000

NWUS53 KLBF 070417

LSRLBF

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

1117 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0306 PM SNOW 33 S MERRIMAN 42.44N 101.70W

10/06/2016 M5.0 INCH CHERRY NE BROADCAST MEDIA

 

0350 PM SNOW MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W

10/06/2016 E4.0 INCH HOOKER NE PUBLIC

 

0608 PM SNOW MERRITT RESERVOIR DAM 42.65N 100.87W

10/06/2016 M4.0 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

 

0609 PM SNOW 16 SW MULLEN 41.88N 101.26W

10/06/2016 M4.5 INCH HOOKER NE PUBLIC

 

0609 PM SNOW 13 ENE TRYON 41.63N 100.71W

10/06/2016 M2.0 INCH LOGAN NE PUBLIC

 

0620 PM SNOW 30 S VALENTINE 42.44N 100.55W

10/06/2016 M5.0 INCH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

 

0622 PM SNOW 1 S VALENTINE 42.86N 100.55W

10/06/2016 M3.0 INCH CHERRY NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

 

0705 PM SNOW AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W

10/06/2016 E3.0 INCH BROWN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

 

[Tom]

Likely First Freeze's this weekend for MN/WI area...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016100712/namconus_T2m_ncus_25.png

[james1976]

Temp aint budging much this morning. Stuck in the 40s. That wind is cold!

[Tom]

2-3 days ago I was suspicious of a torchy look next Wed/Thu in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  GFS was painting 80's/70's during this period, but has since flipped colder over the last few runs with below normal temps even down to OK/Pan Handle of TX.  Trough/Ridge connection in NE PAC now being digested as well as the blocking.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100712/gfs_T2ma_us_22.png

 

 

 

Good sign to see Manitoba/Ontario getting socked with systems and laying down some pretty good snow next week as a piece of the PV gets established near Hudson Bay later next week.

[Tom]

When I stepped outside this morning, it felt a tad like summer with temps surging into in the upper 60's and a hint of a humidity.  Since then, the cold front has swept through and temps are starting to drop!  Strongest front of the season so far.  50's are already showing up in the NW burbs...Fall is in the air!

[OKwx2k4]

2-3 days ago I was suspicious of a torchy look next Wed/Thu in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes. GFS was painting 80's/70's during this period, but has since flipped colder over the last few runs with below normal temps even down to OK/Pan Handle of TX. Trough/Ridge connection in NE PAC now being digested as well as the blocking.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100712/gfs_T2ma_us_22.png

 

 

 

Good sign to see Manitoba/Ontario getting socked with systems and laying down some pretty good snow next week as a piece of the PV gets established near Hudson Bay later next week.

I thought I was slightly going on a limb the other day when talking about where there should be a trough. Sounds like the models finally put 2 and 2 together. :-) Bring it on. If this is the pattern we get then I think I will really like it when it fully matures in DJF.

[jaster220]

2-3 days ago I was suspicious of a torchy look next Wed/Thu in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  GFS was painting 80's/70's during this period, but has since flipped colder over the last few runs with below normal temps even down to OK/Pan Handle of TX.  Trough/Ridge connection in NE PAC now being digested as well as the blocking.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100712/gfs_T2ma_us_22.png

 

 

 

Good sign to see Manitoba/Ontario getting socked with systems and laying down some pretty good snow next week as a piece of the PV gets established near Hudson Bay later next week.

 

Wow Tom. The layout of that below vs above temps is just about spot-on wrt orientation and zones of expected wintery winners projected using some of the classic analog seasons. You, my friend, are stylin'

[jaster220]

@ Okwx24

 

These are some very positive developments pointing towards a much better winter for you guys further SW from us in the GL's. I believe KC, OKC, STL, (your region), etc.. are going to have a great season. Anyone remember the Bliz of '82? Was actually more snow for STL over to IND than the MOAB's in '78

[jaster220]

When I stepped outside this morning, it felt a tad like summer with temps surging into in the upper 60's and a hint of a humidity.  Since then, the cold front has swept through and temps are starting to drop!  Strongest front of the season so far.  50's are already showing up in the NW burbs...Fall is in the air!

 

82º high this afternoon then the Lead Zeppelin comes in for a landing from the west and crashes us to 42º by morning! That's a major front for mby considering the warm lakes right now. Fast forward to January..  

[jaster220]

..regular Christmas tree in FL right now!

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx24

 

These are some very positive developments pointing towards a much better winter for you guys further SW from us in the GL's. I believe KC, OKC, STL, (your region), etc.. are going to have a great season. Anyone remember the Bliz of '82? Was actually more snow for STL over to IND than the MOAB's in '78

Yes they definitely are some great developments. By my studying and analogs, along with other more recent developments, I literally have less than a 10% chance of having an above average temperature /below average snowfall season. In other words, it would be extremely hard to screw this one up. :-) I'll look into 82 again. If I remember correctly it had a very nice arctic outbreak or 2

[Niko]

Today was gorgeous, although, I have to admit, the humidity was a bit noticeable. Much cooler air on the way!

[Niko]

Who needs meteorologists when you can predict weather on your own........

 

http://www.wikihow.com/Predict-the-Weather-Without-a-Forecast