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2017 ENSO Discussion

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#101
jaster220

Posted 03 May 2017 - 05:46 AM

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Love hiking, even in MI's state parks. Out west though, that's serious stuff with the elevation and all. Had a buddy who got himself in a bit over his head on the Continental Divide trail. He was laying down exhausted and said suddenly there was an old grey bearded dude standing over him warning him about a Grizzly approaching nearby. When he got up a minute later, this guy was no where to be seen, so he felt he may have had a guarding angel encounter? ;)


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#102
Tom

Posted 03 May 2017 - 06:05 AM

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Love hiking, even in MI's state parks. Out west though, that's serious stuff with the elevation and all. Had a buddy who got himself in a bit over his head on the Continental Divide trail. He was laying down exhausted and said suddenly there was an old grey bearded dude standing over him warning him about a Grizzly approaching nearby. When he got up a minute later, this guy was no where to be seen, so he felt he may have had a guarding angel encounter? ;)

Woah, now that is no bueno!  You gotta be careful and smart when your hiking around these parts.  Nature always makes the rules.


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#103
jaster220

Posted 03 May 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Speaking of dangerous, just stumbled on this sad MI story:

 

http://www.mlive.com...t_dies_fro.html


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#104
Tom

Posted 03 May 2017 - 11:00 AM

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Speaking of dangerous, just stumbled on this sad MI story:

 

http://www.mlive.com...t_dies_fro.html

That is so sad, yet preventable...very unfortunate..



#105
Tom

Posted 05 May 2017 - 05:52 PM

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CPC's SST CA forecast has been updated today and is showing the following:

 

Summer...

 

casst_anom.1.gif

 

 

 

JAS...

 

 

casst_anom.2.gif

 

 

 

ASO...

 

casst_anom.3.gif



#106
Tom

Posted 07 May 2017 - 06:22 AM

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Since March, the eastern equatorial PAC has cooled off quite a bit...

 

sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#107
Tom

Posted 10 May 2017 - 05:57 AM

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The trend is real.  The JAMSTEC now is seeing a cooler trend in the Modiki Nino setting up this Summer into the Fall.  Take a look.

 

Summer...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

Autumn...interesting to note, the ring of warmth in the NE PAC is more noticeable from it's previous run.

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

Next Winter???

 

ssta.glob.DJF2018.1may2017.gif

 

 

 

Here is the 2-year ENSO forecast...

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2017.gif



#108
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 06:16 AM

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The ECMWF's May run is backing off the mod/strong Nino from last month and the one prior.  Models are trending the other way as one would expect since we are now leaving the "shoulder" months of Spring when climate models tend to do a better job.

 

May's run...

 

ps2png-atls02-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

April...

 

ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8



#109
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 06:27 AM

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At first glance, it looks like the ECMWF peaks the 3.4 region in mid/late summer and then tries to level off as we head into the Autumn.  The warmest of waters continue to retrograde westward into ENSO 4 region as we head into the Autumn.  Take a look at the maps below.  The CFSv2 also has a very similar look to it.  TBH, this is a very nice trend.  Having the warmest waters shift west instead of east is great for winter enthusiasts next cold season!

 

 

Summer...

 

ps2png-atls09-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

Autumn...

 

ps2png-atls19-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

 

Here is the ENSO 4 region...

 

ps2png-atls09-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

 

 

Here is the latest CFSv2 monthly showing a similar SST look in the PAC for the Summer/Autumn...

 

glbSSTSeaInd1.gif

 

glbSSTSeaInd4.gif


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#110
Tom

Posted 15 May 2017 - 06:51 AM

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Interestingly, the latest IMME is showcasing a nearly perfect (IMO) SST signature during the month of November when the heart of the LRC is forming.  Of note, the model is forecasting a very cold Arctic.

 

C_0VoTIU0AAz0lV.jpg



#111
Tom

Posted 18 May 2017 - 02:27 PM

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Weak Nino being forecast on the latest NMME run...

 

DAIOJbAWAAE5u_p.jpg



#112
Tom

Posted 18 May 2017 - 03:09 PM

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Mid-May Dynamic/Statistical Model runs average out to a weak NINO..

 

figure4-2.gif



#113
jaster220

Posted 18 May 2017 - 03:48 PM

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Mid-May Dynamic/Statistical Model runs average out to a weak NINO..
 
figure4-2.gif


I,m no expert but isn't it a little early to count on verification? Don't we need to get within at least 3 months before these mean anything?

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#114
Tom

Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:14 AM

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Sub-surface waters are warming and any cooler anomalies are all but gone.  El Nino is beginning to show case it's development???  It'll take some time but sooner, rather than later, we should see warm waters take over.

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Current status of the SST's...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

The +SOI has helped keep waters cooler in the ENSO 1.2 region but I'm hear the ECMWF's June forecast has a -SOI.



#115
Tom

Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:13 AM

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EPS suggesting continued easterlies through early June...El Nino will have trouble...

 

DAWZ7MiXsAEW2u4.jpg



#116
Tom

Posted 28 May 2017 - 07:40 AM

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Will there be a Summer El Nino as previously thought...or is Mother Nature doing a "head fake"...latest SOI rise and Euro run show un-favorable trade winds along the equatorial PAC over the next couple weeks.

 

 

DA6KDnHVYAAU71O.jpg

 

 

 

Subsurface SST anomalies not at all that impressive TBH...I remember back a few months ago that some of the models were showing El Nino conditions starting during the month of June.  Not looking like it for the time being but things could change.

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

sstaanim.gif



#117
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 May 2017 - 05:31 PM

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If conditions do not become much more favorable at the end of June or sooner, the Nino should fail.

#118
Tom

Posted 29 May 2017 - 07:35 AM

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If conditions do not become much more favorable at the end of June or sooner, the Nino should fail.

No kidding!  The trends in the CFSv2 are showing the ENSO 3.4 region not even reaching weak Nino status at all.  June may be the warmest month through next Winter.

 

 

nino34Mon.gif



#119
Tom

Posted 29 May 2017 - 01:55 PM

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Can you see the overall basin-wide PAC cooling trend???

 

sstaanim.gif


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#120
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 May 2017 - 09:11 PM

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Can you see the overall basin-wide PAC cooling trend???

sstaanim.gif


Wow. That's pretty cool.

#121
jaster220

Posted 30 May 2017 - 06:56 AM

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Can you see the overall basin-wide PAC cooling trend???

 

sstaanim.gif

 

Between this and your "Arctic Chill" it looks like Ice Age incoming! 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#122
Tom

Posted 30 May 2017 - 07:01 AM

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Between this and your "Arctic Chill" it looks like Ice Age incoming! 

All the models busted real bad during the "shoulder" months of Mar/Apr touting a Strong Nino.  What a flip I'd say???


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#123
gimmesnow

Posted 30 May 2017 - 08:19 AM

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So we're looking at a cool summer and a cold winter? Didn't we have a summer like this before that one super good winter a few years ago?



#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 May 2017 - 08:55 AM

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So we're looking at a cool summer and a cold winter? Didn't we have a summer like this before that one super good winter a few years ago?

I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken.

Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned.

#125
james1976

Posted 30 May 2017 - 11:02 AM

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I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken.

Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned.

Yeah 09 and 13 were chilly. Great winters to follow.
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#126
Tom

Posted 02 June 2017 - 05:28 AM

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ENSO 1.2 still dropping off..."IF" this El Nino ever does materialize, it certainly favors a Modiki Nino...

 

nino12.png



#127
Tom

Posted 02 June 2017 - 05:48 AM

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Boy, here is another model really backing off the Nino for this Summer.  Latest CanSIPS run suggesting a meager Nino, if that???

 

Summer...

 

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_1.pn

 

 

Autumn...

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_4.pn



#128
Tom

Posted 03 June 2017 - 06:07 AM

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Recent CFSv2 weekly out in "lala" land for NDJ period is even showing hints of "blue" in the central PAC.

 

glbSSTSeaInd6.gif



#129
Tom

Posted 06 June 2017 - 06:03 AM

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Not sure if I buy it, but CPC's long lead forecast still trying to paint a weak Nino with a warmer E PAC for the Summer...

 

casst_anom.0.gif

 

 

 

 

Autumn...

 

casst_anom.3.gif



#130
Tom

Posted 06 June 2017 - 06:28 AM

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Well, it's going to be real tough to get an El Nino forming with a general +SOI this month according to the Euro...

 

DBm1hYoUAAEK2Oc.jpg



#131
Tom

Posted 07 June 2017 - 06:15 AM

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Well, well, well...latest June NMME run is no longer showing an El Nino, but rather, an ENSO-Neutral La Nada during the course of this Summer/Autumn and next Winter????

 

nino34.rescaling.NMME.png

 

 

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png



#132
jaster220

Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:43 AM

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@ Tom

 

Just see last Dec-March for how that could play out. Namely, other drivers will hold sway and it can go great, or crappy. Thus, not guaranteed. I never bought into a bounce-back to Nino winter. That being said, if this changed from 3 mos ago, what's to say it doesn't paint an entirely different picture 3 mos from today? Maybe it's "trending"? :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#133
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2017 - 04:43 AM

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Really doubting the chances for an El Niño at this point.

Also, odds of a repeat of the last 2 winters would be very slim in my opinion. The QBO flip and low solar will see to that. I'm really looking forward to this coming winter.
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#134
Tom

Posted 08 June 2017 - 06:16 AM

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Really doubting the chances for an El Niño at this point.

Also, odds of a repeat of the last 2 winters would be very slim in my opinion. The QBO flip and low solar will see to that. I'm really looking forward to this coming winter.

Fresh Hot Off the Press:

 

 

 

IRI ENSO Forecast CPC/IRI ENSO Update Published: June 8, 2017

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

 

 

Trends are not favoring an El Nino at this points.



#135
Tom

Posted 08 June 2017 - 06:37 AM

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During the crucial period when the new LRC develops, the latest October SST 1-month SST difference is incredible.  #El Nino fail???

 

DBzVKESWAAQcMia.jpg



#136
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2017 - 07:39 AM

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Well, I guess I made 2 very timely posts today. :)

#FailNiño
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#137
Tom

Posted 08 June 2017 - 07:44 AM

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Well, I guess I made 2 very timely posts today. :)

#FailNiño

I'm curious what the JAMSTEC/EURO/JMA seasonal will be showing for this month.  I think the public Euro comes out on the 15th and the JAMSTEC give or take a few days around then.  JMA will be out next week Thursday.



#138
Niko

Posted 09 June 2017 - 08:43 AM

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Tbh, we are due for a harsh winter...its been a while. FWIW...I miss seeing a full blown blizzard. :D



#139
Tom

Posted 11 June 2017 - 05:38 AM

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A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja

 

ssta-week.gif

 

 

 

sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#140
Niko

Posted 11 June 2017 - 12:33 PM

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Could it be possible?? :o

 

https://youtu.be/fCLBfROEw6w



#141
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 June 2017 - 04:52 PM

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A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja

ssta-week.gif



sstaanim.gif



June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell...

wkxzteq_anm.gif



I've always thought that warmth near Baja in the late autumn and winter months would be a good thing for my area but the last 2 years have proven it not to be. Maybe this year I will get to study if there really was any effect at all from the water Temps in that region and off cali on winter precipitation and temperatures here and points east.

#142
Tom

Posted 12 June 2017 - 05:58 AM

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Latest UKMET SST for the Autumn...cooler ENSO 1.2 with warmer waters farther west along the equatorial PAC...

 

 

 

DCHdY6pVoAEDO5B.jpg



#143
jaster220

Posted 12 June 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Could it be possible?? :o

 

https://youtu.be/fCLBfROEw6w

 

Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it man


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#144
Niko

Posted 13 June 2017 - 05:11 AM

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Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it man

How could you not though, those maps are so amazing. :lol: Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. ;)



#145
jaster220

Posted 13 June 2017 - 11:16 AM

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How could you not though, those maps are so amazing. :lol: Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. ;)

 

Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range :lol:  And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this:

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#146
Niko

Posted 13 June 2017 - 06:02 PM

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Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range :lol:  And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this:

 

attachicon.gifBlizzard-1978-Michigan-Highway.jpg

Dang! :o



#147
Tom

Posted 14 June 2017 - 05:23 AM

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Drum roll please.....latest JAMSTEC says, "No El Nino for the Summer"...since April, most modeling was insisting on a Strong to nearly borderline Super Nino but over the course of just 2 months the models are now collaborating an ENSO neutral Summer season in the equatorial PAC.

 

Here was the JAMSTEC's April run...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif

 

 

Here is today's latest June run...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif

 

 

 

Maybe, just maybe we squeak out a weak Modiki Nino during next Winter...but that is looking less and less likely to get 3-months of .5C or higher.

 

ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jun2017.gif



#148
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 06:06 AM

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The JMA, along with all the other climate models, are all flipping much cooler in the PAC.  In fact, the JMA is not showing any signs of warmer waters along the equatorial PAC.  Instead, it's almost signaling a ENSO-Neutral look.

 

 

August...

 

Y201706.D1000_gls.png

 

Sept...

 

Y201706.D1000_gls.png



#149
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 04:38 PM

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Last but not least, the Euro is following the trends of every other climate model.  #SummerNinoFail...

 

Here were the last 3 months of runs starting from April...

 

ps2png-atls17-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

ps2png-atls19-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

ps2png-atls00-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

There is still a lot of variability as to what happens next Fall/Winter but it's not looking very favorable for an El Nino at this stage of the game.  Many more negative anomaly plumes showing up for the first time.



#150
Tom

Posted 15 June 2017 - 04:44 PM

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EURO mean SST anomalies...the cooler waters near the Baja of Cali are intriguing.  Subtropical connect?  

ASO...

 

ps2png-atls00-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

SON...

 

ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

OND...

 

ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8