May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I think this is a more difficult summer to forecast than normal. My number one analog is 1991, followed by 2014. 1986 seems like a decent analog as well. I wouldn't rule out a 1983-type summer, but I think that's less likely.

 

But the list of years above had nothing to do with my analogs, just examples of years where the general warm/dry summer pattern set in during May.

Understood. I agree with the difficulty, but I think that uncertainly is centered more over the North Atlantic and Arctic this year, rather than over the NPAC.

 

Though obviously, the NAO is a significant player on the summer NPAC state, much more than during the winter. Still, without dateline/Pacific forcing in the background state, anything resembling a +PNA will be tough, if not impossible, to obtain in the long run.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks!   Sorry for agreeing with Phil.   You jumped in to challenge me by default.  

 

Ha, had nothing to do with Phil. Just seemed like a really obvious point. The models are extremely dry/warm right now...of course that will change, and June will almost certainly feature at least one wet/cool period.

[TT-SEA]

Ha, had nothing to do with Phil. Just seemed like a really obvious point. The models are extremely dry/warm right now...of course that will change, and June will almost certainly feature at least one wet/cool period.

 

My statement was directly related to Phil stating that the models are going to turn (and possibly without warning) to a cooler/troughier scenario.   I said that was my general feeling as well.   Primarily because it makes sense when you look at our history.    

 

Thanks for the lengthy subsequent discussion challenging me first on the fact that sometimes it does stay warm and dry through September and that its likely that there will be a cooler/wetter period ahead.   Great insight!   

 

Feels like you are just looking for something to nitpick.   

[Phil]

I have noticed at times in the models that little events happening upstream can have a profound effect later on. Or maybe I am imagining it that way.

You're definitely correct about that, but usually we're talking about burps lasting 3-5 days. This one started a 10 day feedback loop to counter the tropical forcing, then will be reinforced by an equally fluky MJO/CCKW juxtaposition timed perfectly with the EAMT to maintain the ridge while reversing both the Asian and polar states (basically everywhere except over the western United States, where the state is maintained).

 

You have to go back to 2012 for the most recent warm-season extratropical excursion of this magnitude.

[Front Ranger]

Some of those had prolonged cool periods interspersed, though. July 1986 and August 1995 were both very cool (by today's standards).

 

True. It's very, very rare to have every month from May-Sep be warmer than normal. Even 1958 turned cool in September, as did 2015. 1994, 2013, and 2014 pulled it off for some places.

[Front Ranger]

My statement was directly related to Phil stating that the models are going to turn (and possibly without warning) to a cooler/troughier scenario.   I said that was my general feeling as well.   Primarily because it makes sense when you look at our history.   

 

Like I said, just seemed like a very obvious point. They have nowhere to go right now but cooler/troughier.

 

Nothing personal. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Some of those had prolonged cool periods interspersed, though. July 1986 and August 1995 were both very cool (by today's standards).

 

I would welcome another 1995 despite that year having cool downs. I'm sure you know my reason why by looking at my username. 

[TT-SEA]

Like I said, just seemed like a very obvious point. They have nowhere to go right now but cooler/troughier.

 

Nothing personal. 

 

Then we all agree.  I think Phil's point was valid and interesting.   I said that I had the same general sense.   Thanks again for the great follow-up discussion!  

[GHweatherChris]

Nice day!

[Phil]

Then again, nearly all of the analog years I'm looking at actually did feature a period of western ridging in April or May, and the few years that didn't usually ended up featuring one in June or July. So, maybe there's an underlying process at work that hasn't been discovered yet.

 

It's almost like Mother Nature is purposely taking pity on the region after fire-hosing it for 8+ months.

[TT-SEA]

Then again, nearly all of the analog years I'm looking at actually did feature a period of western ridging in April or May, and the years that didn't often featured one in June or July. So, maybe there's an underlying process at work that hasn't been discovered yet.

 

It's almost like Mother Nature is purposely taking pity on the region after fire-hosing it for 8+ months.

 

 

This is how I do my forecasting.   Silly of course because I do not understand all of the global drivers.    I just go by what typically happens here using 125 years of historical data.   Which is nothing of course in the big picture.

[Front Ranger]

Then we all agree.  I think Phil's point was valid and interesting.   I said that I had the same general sense.   Thanks again for the great follow-up discussion!  

 

It wasn't clear to me whether your point was that warm/dry spells in May are usually followed at some point by cooler/troughier weather in June (duh), or that a warm/dry pattern in May rarely bleeds into a warm/dry summer.  

 

Thanks for clarifying!

[GHweatherChris]

Just hit 86 here, no wind. Gonna play on the water slide when the kiddo gets outta school!

[Front Ranger]

 

This is how I do my forecasting.   Silly of course because I do not understand all of the global drivers.    I just go by what typically happens here using 125 years of historical data.   Which is nothing of course in the big picture.

 

I think there's a place for both. And there are so many variables, that even if you're aware of all the major forcings and how they work, they could combine in a way that creates a different scenario. Or another, unrecognized factor could emerge.

 

Weather is complicated and chaotic.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10.

[Phil]

18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10.

Yeah, this 18z run makes more sense to me, especially over the NPAC and western Arctic. Timing is the big question, as usual.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it.

[Front Ranger]

18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10.

We were warned this could happen without warning!!

[TT-SEA]

It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it.

 

 

Yeah... that is how I am acting.   

 

Its over 90 degrees down there.   Outside of our summer goldilocks range of 70-82.    

 

I am sure everyone would love 48-degree rain all summer too.  

[TT-SEA]

We were warned this could happen without warning!!

 

I have learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that.

[Front Ranger]

I have never learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that.

You just never learn.

[TT-SEA]

You just never learn.

 

Crap... typo.   I guess that is also true though!  

[Front Ranger]

91 at PDX. 

 

Would have set a record yesterday or tomorrow, but not today.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it.

 

What I hate is withdrawal from thunderstorms. I'll endure 100 degrees if it means I get my fix at the end of the tunnel.

 

Jokes aside... lol I guess when I was younger I sorta complained about it being hot but now I could care less. I see it too around me. Full grown adults who do not have a middle ground for weather. 

[Phil]

I have learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that.

Thanks. Now I'm gonna screw up somehow, and all faith in me will be lost.

[Phil]

Crap... typo. I guess that is also true though!

There's an infinite amount of potential knowledge permeating the universe, all of it just waiting to be learned.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks. Now I'm gonna screw up somehow, and all faith in me will be lost.

 

 

 

Nahhh... little things can screw up specific forecasts but you have proven an in-depth knowledge of the big picture drivers.

[Jesse]

Nahhh... little things can screw up specific forecasts but you have proven an in-depth knowledge of the big picture drivers.

You're gonna turn Flatiron green.

[Jesse]

Looks like we might be waiting another year for a 92+ event in May. Unless the models suddenly turn dramatically warmer for next week.

[GHweatherChris]

Topped out at 87 here, awesome day!!

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 83 at KLMT (but haven't seen the 6 hour max yet). The record is 87 in 2001.

[Front Ranger]

You're gonna turn Flatiron green.

 

It's always all about me for you. Obsess much? 

[Jesse]

It's always all about me for you. Obsess much? 

 

The magnetic pull of your forecasting prowess is inescapable. 

[Front Ranger]

The magnetic pull of your forecasting prowess is inescapable. 

 

I get that a lot.

[Jesse]

I get that a lot.

 

Self-affirmation can do wonders.

 

[Front Ranger]

Kinda odd that EUG was only slightly warmer than SEA for this warm spell.

[Jesse]

Some pretty high dewpoints in the south valley.

[Timmy Supercell]

Some pretty high dewpoints in the south valley.

 

Extremely dry humidity here. Below 20%. That better change if I want booms later in the week.

[Deweydog]

Eugene has become a humidity vortex!

[Jesse]

Eugene has become a humidity vortex!

L'il Dallol.