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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1
Geos

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:01 AM

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The last month of met summer is here. It's starting off as a scorcher too!

How will it all play out in the end...

 

 

 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 41.91", 12/04

 

Season low so far: 26°, 12/04
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 2.2", 11/24

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Hot start, warm finish

#3
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Hottest first week of August on record very possible for many places. Timing lined up just perfectly.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Will seattle hit 100 looks like a close call

#5
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:22 AM

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This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning.    Its heading far to the south and southwest.

 

smokec29_conus.png



#6
Sounder

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:34 AM

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This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning.    Its heading far to the south and southwest.

 

smokec29_conus.png

 

Could keep daytime temps down at least. Maybe not all bad.



#7
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:47 AM

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This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning. Its heading far to the south and southwest.

smokec29_conus.png


Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#8
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:03 AM

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Does it go beyond 1 day? Looks like Portland south stays mostly in the clear, which should allow them to maximize temps tomorrow.

 

Only goes out through late tomorrow night.  



#9
stuffradio

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:05 AM

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With the smoke in the sky, it feels pretty 'cool' right now.



#10
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:12 AM

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12z GFS mercifully ends the heatwave on Monday. We might luck out with "only" a week straight of 90s.

#modernclimate
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#11
Sounder

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:09 AM

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Line of smoke definitely visible coming in from the north here now.



#12
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:10 AM

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This is depressing... here is the smoke plume forecast for tomorrow morning.    Its heading far to the south and southwest.

 

smokec29_conus.png

 

Yuck. I'm hoping we luck out down here and avoid the smoke, though the entire region is probably going to be on fire this time next week.



#13
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:15 AM

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12z GFS mercifully ends the heatwave on Monday. We might luck out with "only" a week straight of 90s.

#modernclimate

 

Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.



#14
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.


MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

#15
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:20 AM

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Not what I'm seeing. Still shows 850s at ~20c and surface temps in the mid to upper 90s all the way through hour 240.

 

Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high.



#16
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:23 AM

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Yeah, not sure what poor Jess is looking at. Meteostar output shows a cool 95 for Monday's high.


Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

#17
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:27 AM

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.

 

At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.



#18
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:28 AM

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At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.


This isn't a real discussion. Got it. :)

#19
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:31 AM

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That smoke looks pretty thick here. Only 76F and tracking a touch cooler than yesterday at this time.

#20
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:31 AM

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MOS guidance shows upper 80s Monday/Tuesday. Probably a shallow marine intrusion you wouldn't pick up on looking at the upper level maps. I think the weak low kicking in to our south could be the trigger.

 

Some sort of marine intrusion is pretty likely in the next 10 days (there's a reason we've only had 10 straight 90 days once, of course). Though I wouldn't trust the models to pick up on the precise timing of mesoscale details like that a full week out.



#21
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:34 AM

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At this point, I think only a true regionwide firestorm can save us from an entire month in the 90s.

 

Only thing that can save us from your +7.8 August forecast.



#22
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:36 AM

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Only thing that can save us from your +7.8 August forecast.

 

I hate how predictable our climate is  :(



#23
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:37 AM

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Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#24
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack.
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#25
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:50 AM

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Meteostar output is often woefully wrong. MOS guidance sometimes isn't much better but seems to be superior, generally.

Probably all a moot point since in reality we will end up with at least 14 consecutive days of 90+.


Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#26
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:52 AM

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I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today. 



#27
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:55 AM

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Using the KISS approach, looks like low to mid 90's to me. Models seem insistent on sharpening the ridge a bit as the offshore low deepens.


KISS would dictate that 7+ days of 90 or higher are unlikely. Climo.

#28
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:59 AM

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KISS would dictate that 7+ days of 90 or higher are unlikely. Climo.


They are. I'm talking about model interpretation.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#29
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:00 AM

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I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today.


82 at PDX at noon won't cut it with northerly flow.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#30
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:01 AM

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I'm feeling pretty good about 100 today. 

 

97.



#31
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:05 AM

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Hey Tim, 12z Euro output when available por favor. I'm in the mood for an anxiety attack.

 

Waiting for it to finish loading the output section.



#32
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Smoke is pretty visible on a lot of Puget Sound webcams now. Almost certainly going to lead to underwhelming numbers for a heatwave that otherwise may have challenged all-time records.

 

Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.



#33
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:07 AM

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They are. I'm talking about model interpretation.


Monday didn't look like a sharpening ridge to me.

#34
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:08 AM

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82 at PDX at noon won't cut it with northerly flow.

 

Yeah, I just saw the noon obs. It looked good up until 11am. 



#35
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Monday didn't look like a sharpening ridge to me.


#augusticebox

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#36
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:11 AM

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97.


Closer to Jesse's call. ;)

#37
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:13 AM

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The more simple output guidance is not loading but here is a more detailed look at the PDX guidance from the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Unfortunately it is showing a total of zero snow in the next 10 days.   :(     (Also zero precipitation).  

 

KPDX_2017080112_dx_240.png


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#38
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:20 AM

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Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

 

I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days.



#39
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:24 AM

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12z definitely seems less hot overall than the last few Euro runs.

#40
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:29 AM

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Closer to Jesse's call. ;)


Flatiron says we're all gonna end up too cool for today.

#runawayheattrain
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#41
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:29 AM

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Flatiron says we're all gonna end up too cool for today.

#runawayheattrain


Flatiron says a lot of things.

#42
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:44 AM

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Flatiron says a lot of things.

 

If post counts mean anything, not as much as either of you!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#43
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:45 AM

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Makes me wonder how many times that scenario played out in the past, especially in the 1930s-1940s. Lots of fires due to drought and careless logging operations. There's a good chance we wasted another July 1941 or June/July 1942-type ridge at some point during that era due to fire smoke.

 

Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".



#44
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:49 AM

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So is SLE totally f*ckd as a station now? Seems like their anomalies have been running wonky warm for awhile.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#45
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:53 AM

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I wonder if smoke could explain the difference between Salem and Portland during some of those 1920s-30s heatwaves. I always thought Salem's thermometer was a bit overexposed during that era, but now I'm wondering if Portland could have had smokey skies while Salem was clear on some of those days.

 

That's an interesting thought. In theory, Salem's weather station should have been top-notch, since proximity to transportation/shipping routes is what determined if a COOP observer received the proper sheltering equipment or not (Salem was a COOP station in the 1920's as opposed to a Weather Bureau station). It's funny, but in the early days the Weather Bureau would simply tell far-flung COOP observers to build their own shelters since shipping was too expensive. I'm pretty sure that's the biggest reason why there are so many bogus warm readings at small-town COOP stations from that era. Back to the point, Salem should have had the proper equipment...but at the same time they do have a number of readings from that era that look suspect. So I don't know. 

 

With regards to Salem's supposed 108 degree reading on 7/23/1927 (since that one really jumps out), I don't think there was smoke since Bull Run Headworks hit 106 that day and Cascade Locks reached 103. It definitely seems overexposed since Portland was 101 and Eugene was 97 on that day. McMinnville shows 107 on that day but their obs were garbage during that era. In fact, because McMinnville shows 107 it makes me think the real maximum there was something like 102-103.  :lol:


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#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:56 AM

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Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".

 

That word is not "quarter".   It appears to be "portion".  

 

Not sure of the word before it though... sort of looks like 'larger'.



#47
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:01 PM

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Smoke definitely seemed like it was a lot more common back then.

 

I just clicked on a totally random July (1922) original observation form from Vancouver and wasn't surprised to see it mentioned

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...89AC0E2CA29.pdf

 

It looks like it says there in the remarks "It was more or less smoky during the latter quarter of the month".

 

It would be interesting to run some sort of correlation analysis for max temperatures between known clear days in Medford and known clear days in Portland during JJA in that era. And then apply it to days when Medford was clear and Portland reported smoke, to see what the theoretical clear-sky maximum would have been. 



#48
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:01 PM

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That word is not "quarter".   It appears to be "portion".  

 

Not sure of the word before it though... sort of looks like 'larger'.

 

Ah, yeah, that would make sense too. I also thought that first word might have said larger but then read it as "larger quarter of the month" which wouldn't have been right.

 

Either way, a lot of smoke. 



#49
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:07 PM

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PDX making a move, up to 87. That's 7 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#50
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:10 PM

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It would be interesting to run some sort of correlation analysis for max temperatures between known clear days in Medford and known clear days in Portland during JJA in that era. And then apply it to days when Medford was clear and Portland reported smoke, to see what the theoretical clear-sky maximum would have been. 

 

It's just too bad that the upper air soundings were non-existent in this region before 1950. It'd be interesting to look at the correlation between any high thickness (>576) days and the temps here.