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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#51
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:43 PM

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Has no one made a forecast contest yet?


Everyone has not.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#52
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:44 PM

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MOS special!!!


I'll take your word for it.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#53
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:50 PM

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97/60
93/61
98/62
101/62
95/64

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#54
James Jones

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:54 PM

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Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003.

We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much.

It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon.

 

850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits.

 

Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen.



#55
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:08 PM

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850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits.
 
Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen.


I'm banking on tomorrow staying around 25.0-25.5C. Both the GFS and NAM have trended in that direction. That's right where 9/2/2003 landed as well.

#56
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:38 PM

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More forever-ridgeish members on the 18z ensembles.

#57
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:48 PM

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Hillsboro mixed out pretty well.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#58
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:50 PM

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About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10.

There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.

It's called climate change. 



#59
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:52 PM

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.

 

Not Marks forecast...


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#60
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:54 PM

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Hillsboro mixed out pretty well.

 

Toasty! 


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#61
crf450ish

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:14 PM

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When does snow_wizard start chiming in on here? I noticed he's been absent since late spring. I actually take interest in his forsight and input.

#62
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:16 PM

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It's called climate change. 

 

No... its called a September ridge.    It happens.


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#63
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:37 PM

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No... its called a September ridge. It happens.


This isn't a very run of the mill September ridge, to be fair.

#64
Jesse

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:39 PM

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Hillsboro mixed out pretty well.


Mixed out?! I thought inversion season didn't start until after Kwanzaa.

#65
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:45 PM

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0Z NAM sticking to its guns.

25c/593dm and 94 @ 4pm...translating to a high of 96 or so.

#66
Kayla

Posted 01 September 2017 - 07:50 PM

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0Z NAM sticking to its guns.

25c/593dm and 94 @ 4pm...translating to a high of 96 or so.

 

While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#67
Deweydog

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:00 PM

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Mixed out?! I thought inversion season didn't start until after Kwanzaa.


I doubt Salem and Eugene get out of the 30's tomorrow.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#68
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:42 PM

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I doubt Salem and Eugene get out of the 30's tomorrow.

 

Celsius?   Very good call.  



#69
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:51 PM

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While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though.

 

Interestingly, this afternoon's sounding over SLE already showed 24.8C and 595dm heights overhead. Both were higher than modeled for today. Maybe tomorrow will continue the trend...won't take much of a tweak upward to push us into the 98 degree range. Even today, MMV hit 97 and HIO 96.


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#70
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:58 PM

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The ever-trusty MOS guidance is spitting out 4 straight 100's for SLE and EUG for tomorrow through Tuesday. 



#71
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:09 PM

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No smoke is shown for most of the area all the way through Sunday... much better than I anticipated.    It will also not be factor in limiting temperatures the next 2 days.

 

This is Sunday evening...

 

2017090112_V2017090312_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d



#72
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:39 PM

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Impressive 87.1 average maximum last month @ PDX. The top-5 now looks like this:

 

88.1 in Aug 1967

87.5 in Jul 1985

87.1 in Aug 2017

86.7 in Jul 2015

86.5 in Jul 2009



#73
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:45 PM

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00Z ECMWF at 192 hours... a trough approaching us with some rain and a major hurricane approaching Florida.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png



#74
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:58 PM

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00Z ECMWF is quite troughy and wet after day 7.

And takes a 932mb hurricane right into Charleston on day 10. That would make Harvey look like childs play.

#75
BLI snowman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:04 PM

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00Z ECMWF is quite troughy and wet after day 7.

And takes a 932mb hurricane right into Charleston on day 10. That would make Harvey look like childs play.

 

Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference. 

 

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.



#76
Phil

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:09 PM

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Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference.

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.


Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#77
Phil

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:12 PM

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Some estimates estimate Harvey's economic cost will be more than Katrina and Ike combined. Hundreds of billions of dollars by most projections. We're gonna go into serious debt at this rate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#78
wx_statman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:17 PM

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Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4.

 

Yeah, GFS insists on a landfall: 

Attached Files


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#79
BLI snowman

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:23 PM

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Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4.

 

Yeah, it's definitely looking more likely than not that it makes a U.S. landfall at this point. Also looking much more likely than not that it at least gets to higher-end Cat 4 strength.


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#80
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:07 AM

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Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference.

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.


Ahhhh... good to know.

#81
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:30 AM

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The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png



#82
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:54 AM

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I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   



#83
Kayla

Posted 02 September 2017 - 07:59 AM

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I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   

 

We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma.  :)


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#84
WSmet

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:01 AM

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We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma.  :)

In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other


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#85
Kayla

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:08 AM

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12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

 

Sat - 97

Sun - 96

Mon - 104

Tue - 108

Wed - 97


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#86
Kayla

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:08 AM

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In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other

 

Yet (I) always follows (H).


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#87
crf450ish

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:17 AM

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I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   

*Irma 



#88
crf450ish

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:20 AM

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The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png

Wheres the model depicting the the weakening ridge out in the Atlantic? In order for Irma to go that far north up the Eastern seaboard, that Atlantic ridge is going to have to decay quite a bit, isn't it?



#89
stuffradio

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:23 AM

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The PDO flipped negative last month according to NOAA.


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#90
Phil

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:34 AM

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Thing is, that trough/ULL has trended NE on most guidance, which changes the orientation of the phase enough that it might send the storm out to sea.

The 12z GFS is much farther NE with the trough, perhaps sufficiently enough to boot the storm out. We'll see.


Still landfalls on 12z, but have to watch that trough regardless.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#91
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:44 AM

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Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.
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#92
stuffradio

Posted 02 September 2017 - 08:58 AM

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Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.

Attached File  gem_apcpn_nwus_40.png   111.91KB   1 downloads

Attached File  gfs_apcpn_nwus_49.png   135.96KB   1 downloads


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#93
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2017 - 09:02 AM

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12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

Today - 96
Sat - 97
Sun - 96
Mon - 102
Tue - 108
Wed - 98


Thinking this will probably bust low.

#94
Kayla

Posted 02 September 2017 - 09:42 AM

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Thinking this will probably bust low.

 

Yeah at second look that 96 on Sunday does seem a little low.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#95
Front Ranger

Posted 02 September 2017 - 11:10 AM

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No landfall for Irma on 12z Euro.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#96
Front Ranger

Posted 02 September 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.

 

The possibility is growing, but given the look of both the EPS and GFS ensemble mean, I wouldn't say consensus is there yet. Neither show a major trough, just near normal heights from day 6 on.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#97
wx_statman

Posted 02 September 2017 - 11:30 AM

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12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

 

Sat - 97

Sun - 96

Mon - 104

Tue - 108

Wed - 97

 

Where are you seeing those numbers? I'm seeing 27.4 with an extracted maximum of 103 on Tuesday. 



#98
James Jones

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:04 PM

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100 not looking likely.



#99
wx_statman

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:21 PM

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Smoke has moved into Eugene.



#100
wx_statman

Posted 02 September 2017 - 12:28 PM

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100 not looking likely.

 

It hasn't looked likely for a few days.


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