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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#51
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:46 AM

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12z Euro looks pretty east with the next clipper. Warm days and coolish nights.



#52
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:48 AM

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12z Euro continues to keep things pretty dry.

 

I don't know if you guys are aware, but the Euro is the gold standard.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#53
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:54 AM

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Pretty disappointing trends on the 12z runs.

#54
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:55 AM

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I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

I'm curious how often they even see a hard freeze.

Maybe similar to Victoria Gonzales (southern tip of Vancouver island). They don't see many hard freezes without some Fraser River outflow assistance.

http://climate.weath...r=2017&Month=9#
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#55
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:57 AM

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12z Euro looks pretty east with the next clipper. Warm days and coolish nights.

 

Luckily its the ECMWF... total garbage.  

 

It sure does look sharp and cold with the big trough early next week.   Brrrrrrr!

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png



#56
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:00 AM

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It does happen reasonably often.  More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.

I kind of suspected that.  Sometimes I'm not here in October, but I remember as a kid hearing the weather guy talking about hail and ice pellets off the coast near Ocean Shores, less than a week later we were hit with an arctic outbreak and snow...



#57
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:00 AM

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Luckily its the ECMWF... total garbage.

It sure does look sharp and cold with the big trough early next week. Brrrrrrr!


If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

#58
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:02 AM

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If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

 

:lol:

 

No Jesse. 



#59
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:03 AM

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:lol:

No Jesse.


Sounds like you draw the line at murder. Glad to see you have scruples. ;)

#60
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:05 AM

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Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

#61
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:08 AM

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Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

 

Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#62
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Long range guidance seems to be leaning towards things turning more active later in week 2.
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#63
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

 

But his forecasts are still valuable.   He does well predicting the general progression... just always too slow.  



#64
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:12 AM

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Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

Are you still trying to figure out which one of you screwed up their summer forecast the most?

#65
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:13 AM

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Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.


Y'all thought I was being a smart a** when I said it would warm up after this cool down...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#66
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:21 AM

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Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.

#67
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:22 AM

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Are you still trying to figure out which one of you screwed up their summer forecast the most?

 

Before summer, I went warm, he went cool. You make the call.  B)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#68
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:23 AM

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Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.

 

Attached File  bridge1.jpg   23.5KB   0 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#69
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:25 AM

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Before summer, I went warm, he went cool. You make the call. B)

I went warm too and warm for September. But I'm tired of reading about it.

#70
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:26 AM

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bridge1.jpg


Is this you when you are finally forced to admit that Phil regularly owns you in the forecasting department. :lol:
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#71
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:31 AM

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Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.


Science!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#72
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:33 AM

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Science!


Nothing scientific about it. It definitely how things have gone the last several months though!

#73
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:35 AM

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Nothing scientific about it. It definitely how things have gone the last several months though!


It's your comeuppance for all that s**t you gave Timmy about things trending east.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#74
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:36 AM

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Major early season storm heading for southern Alberta. 4-8" tonight and 6-10" tomorrow, with winds gusting to 55mph.

http://weather.gc.ca...1_metric_e.html
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#75
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:36 AM

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It's your comeuppance for all that s**t you gave Timmy for things trending east.


I think you gave him even more. And you love endless warmth so I'm confused. 🤔

#76
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:41 AM

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I think you gave him even more. And you love endless warmth so I'm confused. 🤔


I love weather, Jesse. I love weather.

Join us! Your blood pressure will be lower and you'll have more frequent and productive bowel movements.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#77
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:42 AM

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I love weather, Jesse. I love weather.

Join us! Your blood pressure will be lower and you'll have more frequent and productive bowel movements.


I do too. It's more fun being a caricature here though.

#78
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:45 AM

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I do too. It's more fun being a caricature here though.


Yes, Jesse. We get it. You're totally f*cking with us and we're just the mark. Good one!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#79
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:46 AM

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Yes, Jesse. We get it. You're totally f*cking with us and we're just the mark. Good one!

 

;)



#80
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:48 AM

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;)


It's gonna be a warm October.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#81
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:57 AM

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It's gonna be a warm October.


Did Flatiron tip you off?

#82
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:59 AM

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Did Flatiron tip you off?


Your clumps of hair falling out sealed it.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#83
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:01 PM

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It's gonna be a warm October.

 

So you think this graphic is totally out to lunch?

Attached Files



#84
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:02 PM

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Your clumps of hair falling out sealed it.

 

I have a full head of thick, luscious hair. Tim or anyone else I have on facebook could attest.

 

Still waiting for you to respond to my request. :(



#85
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:08 PM

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I have a full head of thick, luscious hair. Tim or anyone else I have on facebook could attest.

Still waiting for you to respond to my request. :(


Stalker.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#86
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:10 PM

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My money's on PDX staying above 40 all month again.

 

It's become an annual tradition.



#87
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:11 PM

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So you think this graphic is totally out to lunch?


Nope. It will probably be wrong, though.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#88
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:18 PM

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Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.


Cool September!!
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#89
Phil

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:20 PM

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Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.


Trough west/ridge east will be the mean wavetrain through the first half of October. Still looks that way to me.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#90
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:22 PM

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Stalker.

 

Do you have an account? :D



#91
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:24 PM

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Trough west/ridge east will be the mean wavetrain through the first half of October. Still looks that way to me.

 

My guess is it will be mild and dry here through mid month with cool troughing centered to our east, then mild and wet here the last half of the month with a mean trough position offshore. Maybe some zonal mixed in too.


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#92
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:25 PM

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Do you have an account? :D


I do. My wife made me one several years ago because she got tired of people contacting her to contact me. I look at it about every six months, usually by accident.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#93
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:27 PM

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I do. My wife made me one several years ago because she got tired of people contacting her to contact me. I look at it about every six months, usually by accident.


I'll try to find it. There can't be that many Matthew Dogs in Hockinson.

#94
Deweydog

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:29 PM

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I'll try to find it. There can't be that many Matthew Dogs in Hockinson.


She used my nickname from high school mixed with my favorite power tool.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#95
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:36 PM

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Nope. It will probably be wrong, though.

Battle of the air masses.  So you think the warm nose off the coast will be too much of a force for any continental air to infiltrate west of the mountains....?



#96
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:51 PM

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Chunky rain/ hail mix here in Puyallup right now.



#97
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:11 PM

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Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor. WTF???

We need rain so desperately here! It stopped around noon. Getting the sprinklers out again. The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.

ATX_0_1.png

That 1.25" is my exact total from the entire JAS period.

#98
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:12 PM

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Is this you when you are finally forced to admit that Phil regularly owns you in the forecasting department. :lol:


Phil's not bad. He just needs to be more honest.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#99
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:25 PM

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I'm seriously so bummed about the model trends right now.

#100
Kayla

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:29 PM

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Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

 

Just a tad east on the call.

 

Have to give him credit for just making a call though since others here rarely do.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history