October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Yeah, anecdotally I can't remember too many events where that area was a sweet spot. It seems like they always miss out a bit in one setup or another, and they're obviously pretty moderated by water being on the edge of a little peninsula.

 

That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.

[Jesse]

That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.

I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

 

I'm curious how often they even see a hard freeze.

[wx_statman]

I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

 

They do have some gems, although they seem to be few and far between. I like the 17.5" on January 5, 1982. Similar NW'erly blast to November 2010, where PDX experienced CAA from the N/NW without any gorge influence. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.

 

How did they do in Dec 1996/Nov 2006/Feb 2011? Those were pretty big events on the other side of the Strait.

[BLI snowman]

They do have some gems, although they seem to be few and far between. I like the 17.5" on January 5, 1982. Similar NW'erly blast to November 2010, where PDX experienced CAA from the N/NW without any gorge influence. 

 

I think that one is pretty dubious, looks to me like it got entered on WRCC wrong.

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-9869909D-F644-459D-A7BE-0E921F214D09.pdf

 

That was a significant event for NW WA, but I'm not aware of any daily totals that high.

[ShawniganLake]

August and September were both record warm months at Shawnigan Lake. Looking like the streak ends with October, thankfully.

[ShawniganLake]

12z euro is the furthest east with next weekends trough, of the 3 main models.

[crf450ish]

Just like last winter the GFS is struggling with a possible cutoff low to our SW or WSW interfering with a trough trying to dig down from the north. The 6z had no cutoff low so the trough solidly dug in while the 12z has the cutoff low there again causing the trough to deflect. The 0z GEM and 0z ECMWF agreed with the 6z GFS so for now going with a sharp trough scenario seems reasonable.

No offense but I consider the GFS to be a total joke after what I witnessed last winter and the majority of this year so far. It doesn't know if it's coming or going 99.9% of the time. Even veteran mets around the country agree that the Euro is far more accurate than the GFS. Considering how accurate the Euro was with this recent string of Atlantic hurricanes.... I'd wager that it's the one to place bets on.

[Geos]

The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.

 

They get a whole variety of weather there. You're right though. Port Townsend was on the very edge of the Fraser River outflow snow event last winter. Sequim and Port Angeles got nailed though.

[BLI snowman]

They get a whole variety of weather there. You're right though. Port Townsend was on the very edge of the Fraser River outflow snow event last winter. Sequim and Port Angeles got nailed though.

 

Yeah, it seems like the COOP stations around town measured just a few inches or less last February. Pretty wimpy.

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro looks pretty east with the next clipper. Warm days and coolish nights.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro continues to keep things pretty dry.

 

I don't know if you guys are aware, but the Euro is the gold standard.

[Jesse]

Pretty disappointing trends on the 12z runs.

[ShawniganLake]

I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

 

I'm curious how often they even see a hard freeze.

Maybe similar to Victoria Gonzales (southern tip of Vancouver island). They don't see many hard freezes without some Fraser River outflow assistance.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?timeframe=2&hlyRange=1994-02-01%7C2017-09-30&dlyRange=1973-01-01%7C2017-09-30&mlyRange=1972-01-01%7C2007-02-01&StationID=114&Prov=BC&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Gonzales&Day=1&Year=2017&Month=9#

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro looks pretty east with the next clipper. Warm days and coolish nights.

 

Luckily its the ECMWF... total garbage.  

 

It sure does look sharp and cold with the big trough early next week.   Brrrrrrr!

 

 

[Farmboy]

It does happen reasonably often.  More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.

I kind of suspected that.  Sometimes I'm not here in October, but I remember as a kid hearing the weather guy talking about hail and ice pellets off the coast near Ocean Shores, less than a week later we were hit with an arctic outbreak and snow...

[Jesse]

Luckily its the ECMWF... total garbage.

 

It sure does look sharp and cold with the big trough early next week. Brrrrrrr!

 

 

If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

[TT-SEA]

If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

 

 

No Jesse. 

[Jesse]

 

No Jesse.

Sounds like you draw the line at murder. Glad to see you have scruples.

[Jesse]

Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

 

Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

[ShawniganLake]

Long range guidance seems to be leaning towards things turning more active later in week 2.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

 

But his forecasts are still valuable.   He does well predicting the general progression... just always too slow.  

[ShawniganLake]

Whatever he says, it will actually work out opposite. Because of timing. Never fails.

Are you still trying to figure out which one of you screwed up their summer forecast the most?

[Deweydog]

Looks like Phil's troughy first half of October will work out pretty well.

Y'all thought I was being a smart a** when I said it would warm up after this cool down...

[Jesse]

Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.

[Front Ranger]

Are you still trying to figure out which one of you screwed up their summer forecast the most?

 

Before summer, I went warm, he went cool. You make the call. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Before summer, I went warm, he went cool. You make the call.

I went warm too and warm for September. But I'm tired of reading about it.

[Jesse]

bridge1.jpg

Is this you when you are finally forced to admit that Phil regularly owns you in the forecasting department.

[Deweydog]

Euro shows a solidly warm first ten days of October. Pretty crazy. You can never trust the models when they say we are finally entering an extended cool pattern these days. Even if there is stellar support, a wrinkle will form and the whole thing will fall apart after a couple days of decent runs.

Science!

[Jesse]

Science!

Nothing scientific about it. It definitely how things have gone the last several months though!

[Deweydog]

Nothing scientific about it. It definitely how things have gone the last several months though!

It's your comeuppance for all that you gave Timmy about things trending east.

[ShawniganLake]

Major early season storm heading for southern Alberta. 4-8" tonight and 6-10" tomorrow, with winds gusting to 55mph.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-51_metric_e.html

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

I love weather, Jesse. I love weather.

 

Join us! Your blood pressure will be lower and you'll have more frequent and productive bowel movements.

I do too. It's more fun being a caricature here though.

[Deweydog]

I do too. It's more fun being a caricature here though.

Yes, Jesse. We get it. You're totally f*cking with us and we're just the mark. Good one!

[Jesse]

Yes, Jesse. We get it. You're totally f*cking with us and we're just the mark. Good one!

 

[Deweydog]

It's gonna be a warm October.