October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For Octüber, or future months several months down the road?

 

Dec-Feb looks below normal

[Jesse]

Dec-Feb looks below normal

Happiness is always just 90 days away.

[Front Ranger]

If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook.

weathernerdsmeet.com

[wx_statman]

How did they do in Dec 1996/Nov 2006/Feb 2011? Those were pretty big events on the other side of the Strait.

 

They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet. 

 

Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8". 

 

In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell). 

[wx_statman]

I think that one is pretty dubious, looks to me like it got entered on WRCC wrong.

 

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-9869909D-F644-459D-A7BE-0E921F214D09.pdf

 

That was a significant event for NW WA, but I'm not aware of any daily totals that high.

 

Yup, I should have known better than to trust that number. 

[wx_statman]

If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you?

 

I think most people would at least consider it?

[Jesse]

I think most people would at least consider it?

 

We aren't that bad are we?

[Jesse]

They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet.

 

Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8".

 

In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell).

This is great information. I appreciate that my query earlier lead to all of this.

[wx_statman]

We aren't that bad are we?

It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences.

[Deweydog]

It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences.

I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast.

[wx_statman]

I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast.

I think that depends on how cold or hungry they are at the time.

[Geos]

Was up by Darrington and Rockport today. Drove through some really heavy showers up there. It was pretty cool at times it was raining, but yet you look up and you can see the surrounding snowy peaks.

[snow_wizard]

Some very beautiful CFS monthlies.

 

Nice to hear!

 

No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign.  The one this weekend is looking really good now.

[stuffradio]

Happiness is always just 90 days away.

90 days is the new 384 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Nice to hear!

 

No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign.  The one this weekend is looking really good now.

 

On what?   The 18Z GFS?   

[snow_wizard]

Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now.  Should be some chilly nights this week!

[seattleweatherguy]

Maybe in the 30,s

[TT-SEA]

Pouring rain here again now.

[Dave]

Pretty cool to see a shelf cloud in the PNW.  I've never seen one myself

 

http://katu.com/news/offbeat/gallery/dramatic-shelf-cloud-brings-sudden-burst-of-wind-to-olympic-peninsula#photo-1

[Phil]

The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

 

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.

[Phil]

Live seismograph monitoring Agung. The last hour looks pretty active.

 

https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/

[TT-SEA]

The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

 

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.

 

That is what I have been thinking... cheering on the Nina might be fools gold.    I am hoping for a weak Nina to boost the odds of blocking.  

[Deweydog]

00z alert!

[snow_wizard]

The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking.

 

A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability.

 

That probably would be fine.  It's obvious we don't have to worry about a Nino this winter.

[snow_wizard]

The trough coming late this week looks to drop 850s to the 0 to 2C range now.  Another solid shot of chilly air.

[Front Ranger]

Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now.  Should be some chilly nights this week!

 

Deep troughing would make you happier, though.

 

- Tim

[Front Ranger]

It's gonna be a warm October.

 

-2 at PDX so far...

[Deweydog]

-2 at PDX so far...

You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays.

[TT-SEA]

It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now.   12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW.      

[Deweydog]

It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now. 12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim

[Front Ranger]

You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays.

 

PDX ended up not even close to a record warm month. I'm on fire.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 44 here. Should be the first 30s of the season tonight.

[Phil]

You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays.

Ooooooh sh*t.

[Front Ranger]

Canadian is solidly on the trough next weekend train.

 

[Front Ranger]

Down to 44 here. Should be the first 30s of the season tonight.

 

Nice, seeing some mid 40s in NW WA as well.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian is solidly on the trough next weekend train.

 

gem_z500a_us_24.png

 

If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up.   The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF.  

 

But you already know and that and are trying to troll me. 

[Front Ranger]

If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up.   The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF.  

 

But you already know and that and are trying to troll me. 

 

Just posting model maps, dude.

[Jesse]

If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up. The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF.

 

But you already know and that and are trying to troll me.

I think a wise man once said...not everything's about you. And Jim.

[TT-SEA]

Just posting model maps, dude.

 

Well... you trolled me on the last page so I was guessing this was part of that.   No big deal.  

[Front Ranger]

Well... you trolled me on the last page so I was guessing this was part of that.   No big deal.  

 

That wasn't trolling. It was spoofing your trolling of Jim.