October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Geos]

New coldest low of the season (so far) at my house this morning of 40. Cloud deck was just above the ground - feels and looks like autumn now. Colors in the lowlands are really taking off. Peak colors in the mountains now.

[Jesse]

Not going to get to worried about some ridging in early October. ,

The whether actually looks pretty nice this week. ,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The whether actually looks pretty nice this week. ,

 

kool

[stuffradio]

The whether actually looks pretty nice this week. ,

It's vice versa.

 

On another note, it dropped to 39F here this morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is keeping the trough diving into the Intermountain West this coming weekend a little closer to the coast.

[Farmboy]

12Z GFS is keeping the trough diving into the Intermountain West this coming weekend a little closer to the coast.

$20 says 12z euro keeps it east of where GFS showed...

[Jesse]

$20 says 12z euro keeps it east of where GFS showed...

I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Farmboy]

I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

That's why I said only $20...   

[Front Ranger]

Arlington hit 38 this AM. And SEA finally managed a low in the 40s, for the first time this season.

[Geos]

I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 

Me neither. The EURO isn't always right this far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tis' the season for growing weather angst. 

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles looking pretty decent with that clipper. Keeps 850s below average for longer too.

[Jesse]

Canadian looks to be on board with digging the trough further west as well.

 

[Phil]

That is what I have been thinking... cheering on the Nina might be fools gold. I am hoping for a weak Nina to boost the odds of blocking.

Yeah, at least since we have the -QBO, a stronger niña would likely hurt blocking potential.

 

If we had a +QBO, a stronger niña would probably help blocking potential.

[TT-SEA]

$20 says 12z euro keeps it east of where GFS showed...

 

I think you lost that bet...

 

[DareDuck]

Widespread freezing temps in central OR this morning. 32 in Bend, 30 RDM, 22/23 for Sunriver and La Pine.

[TT-SEA]

Despite the westward shift on Saturday... the 12Z ECMWF is still back to a ridge by Monday.

 

[Geos]

Arlington hit 38 this AM. And SEA finally managed a low in the 40s, for the first time this season.

 

Stations in and around Granite Falls around 36 it looks like. It was a good night for cooling - clouds and showers up until sunset, then it cleared out until the marine layer came in really early this morning. Still cloudy here and only 53 so far. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny here now... beautiful day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensemble mean is at or below climo pretty much for the next two weeks. Hardly the grim scenario being portrayed by some. 

[Jesse]

Nice and crisp out there today.

[Deweydog]

Keep in mind if it gets too crispy out there things could just fall apart.

[Jesse]

Keep in mind if it gets too crispy out there things could just fall apart.

I'm not to worried about that........unlike SOME. ,

[Farmboy]

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds like Comox and Abbotsford joined Shawnigan lake with record warm Septembers. Although Abbotsford was a tie with 2 other years.

[Geos]

Sun finally out with the remaining cloud deck dissipating fairly quickly. Up to 57.

[TT-SEA]

The ensemble mean is at or below climo pretty much for the next two weeks. Hardly the grim scenario being portrayed by some. 

 

Not sure that is accurate... but nobody is saying it will be hot.   

 

Just not as bitter cold as once shown.   The ECMWF is at or above normal at the 850mb level on 7 out of the next 10 days.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the EPS is a little deeper than the operational ECMWF on Saturday.   That is usually an indication of which way the next ECMWF run will trend.

[Jesse]

FWIW... the EPS is a little deeper than the operational ECMWF on Saturday. That is usually an indication of which way the next ECMWF run will trend.

EPS looks troughier in the 8-10 day range too.

[Front Ranger]

The ensemble mean is at or below climo pretty much for the next two weeks. Hardly the grim scenario being portrayed by some. 

 

Yeah, it's looking right now like any warmth for most of the West will be brief and likely transitional.

 

What a contrast from the dominant pattern this warm season.

 

[Farmboy]

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like Comox and Abbotsford joined Shawnigan lake with record warm Septembers. Although Abbotsford was a tie with 2 other years.

 

Interesting. The ridging was definitely centered in BC the first half of last month.

 

Clearbrook, about 4 mi south of Abbotsford, ended up well short of their record (about 1.5F). It was, however, the warmest September there since 1995.

[wx_statman]

Looks like Government Camp set an all-time monthly record for 80 degree maximums in August, with 16 total. Previous record was 14 days in August 1967 and July 1971.

[Deweydog]

Thunder!!!

[Jesse]

Thunder!!!

We heard some off in the distance, to the north.

 

Decent little cell moving off the Cascades in NE flow.

[Jesse]

Cell is affecting PDX now. Down 7 degrees in the last 20 minutes with north winds gusting close to 25mph.

 

We had gusty north winds as it passed here to the north too.

[wx_statman]

Just heard someone sitting next to me tell someone else that his girlfriend texted him to let him know there's "hail the size of dimes" falling where she is. He then told the guy she's "over there" while pointing northward. True story.    

 

So, there's hail falling somewhere to the north of downtown Portland right now.  

[wx_statman]

And now its pouring rain and hail here. That was quick.

[Jesse]

Just heard someone sitting next to me tell someone else that his girlfriend texted him to let him know there's "hail the size of dimes" falling where she is. He then told the guy she's "over there" while pointing northward. True story.

 

So, there's hail falling somewhere to the north of downtown Portland right now.

Looks like that little cell has intensified over North Portland. That's probably where the hail is falling.

[wx_statman]

Looks like that little cell has intensified over North Portland. That's probably where the hail is falling.

 

Sneaky little cell.