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Christmas Holiday Snow Event

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#51
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:21 AM

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12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.

 

You're sitting in a sweet spot with likely help from the Lake.. ;)


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#52
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:23 AM

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You're sitting in a sweet spot with likely help from the Lake.. ;)


This is like a gift from nature...I’m going to be filled with joy waking up on Christmas with a couple inches of powda! Makes up for the wiff of the Solstice storm.
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#53
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:24 AM

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hopefully the Euro is wrong 


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#54
Madtown

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:29 AM

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....that snow cover map is a little misleading....nothing here.

#55
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:34 AM

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....that snow cover map is a little misleading....nothing here.

 

Yep, they can be, certainly on the fringe <1" range..usually it's pretty good above the ~2" threshold


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#56
Tony

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:38 AM

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This is like a gift from nature...I’m going to be filled with joy waking up on Christmas with a couple inches of powda! Makes up for the wiff of the Solstice storm.

Being without any measureable snow for the month of December is really strange so seeing the new model runs is a nice surprise or dare I say "Christmas Miracle"


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#57
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 10:41 AM

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yet again.....

 

lucy-football.jpg



#58
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:03 AM

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I'll take the 2" that the Euro is showing from this.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#59
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:05 AM

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I'll take the 2" that the Euro is showing from this.

id rather the GFS 



#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:06 AM

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id rather the GFS


Same but the low end being 2" is definitely not a bad sign.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#61
buzzman289

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:11 AM

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I'm looking at brown grass in Cedar Rapids, so that snow map is definitely not correct.



#62
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 11:18 AM

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Same but the low end being 2" is definitely not a bad sign.

the trend on the euro is one I do not like 



#63
Hawkeye

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:16 PM

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DVN's new graphic indicates they are not going as far north as the latest euro, yet.

 

DRrSbt3WkAAZnhJ.jpg


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#64
bainbridgekid

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:17 PM

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18z NAM through hour 39 coming in a bit North of the 12z with the Christmas Eve wave.

 

12z kept it all basically entirely South of the Iowa border.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_37.png


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Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#65
Tom

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:30 PM

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Stronger/North trend is legit on the 18z NAM...it likes OMA/LNK peeps also...
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#66
Hawkeye

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:32 PM

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18z NAM through hour 39 coming in a bit North of the 12z with the Christmas Eve wave.

 

That's more than a bit north... a 80+ mile jump to join the euro/uk.  I'd like to see this wave continue to amp and inch north a bit more.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
GDR

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:40 PM

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Nope I’d like to see it stay put
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#68
Bryan1117

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:42 PM

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Stronger/North trend is legit on the 18z NAM...it likes OMA/LNK peeps also...

I am liking the trends of a stronger, more northward tracking system. Last night and early this morning, it looked like we might be only good for a trace to a 1/2 inch of snow in Omaha with the Saturday night/Christmas Eve system - now 2-4 inches looks like it might be possible around here. According to the NAM and Euro, our chances of a White Christmas in Omaha are certainly rising... hope these models are onto something! 



#69
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:51 PM

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I'm just happy that it looks very likely we'll see snow on Xmas Eve.  Hopefully we get at least an inch.  2 or 3" would be gravy.  



#70
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 12:58 PM

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DVN just updated their grids to a whopping 20% chance of snow??  They are always way to slow to react to the models.  



#71
Hawkeye

Posted 22 December 2017 - 01:11 PM

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DMX and DVN discussions both say best snow in the far south, but they'll watch for a continued north trend.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#72
Tony

Posted 22 December 2017 - 01:22 PM

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12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.

At 15:1 or higher ratios this should fluff up nicely!


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#73
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 01:58 PM

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Thinking closer to 10:1, it's not going to be cold. I for one want nothing higher than 12:1

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#74
NEJeremy

Posted 22 December 2017 - 02:02 PM

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OAX going with less than an inch here in Omaha to 2-3” towards the Kansas border for tomorrow

#75
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 02:06 PM

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18z looks about the same



#76
Tony

Posted 22 December 2017 - 02:09 PM

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Thinking closer to 10:1, it's not going to be cold. I for one want nothing higher than 12:1

In this case it will be the depth of the DGZ that will fluff it up to higher ratios. I could be wrong but just throwing it out there.



#77
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 02:19 PM

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DMX said 15-20:1



#78
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 03:22 PM

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I go by old school rules of thumb, wind direction and temps. My high is showing 28 deg, anticipating an east (wet) wind. Traditionally 28-32F snows here are not fluffy. Ofc if it stays colder I could see ratios going up. I really prefer snow that doesn't quickly settle, sublimate, or evap for that matter

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#79
jaster220

Posted 22 December 2017 - 03:41 PM

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GRR's warming up the WWA button..

Yet another surface low will pass to our SE Christmas Eve Day and
Night. There will also be a surface low moving across the Superior
Region in the time frame. These systems will also have better upper
level support, as a long wave upper trough comes through Sunday
evening. Expect the snow field will be more widespread, covering
much of the CWA. On top of this, we will get within the true arctic
air by Sunday night, helping flare up the lake effect snows. The
Christmas Eve Day & Night should be a snowy one. Expect we will see
3 to 5 inches south of I-96 and also along the lakeshore from the
combination of the system snow and the lake effect. Areas north and
east of GRR should see 1 to 3 inches. Headlines appear likely given
the higher impact with holiday travel.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2017 - 03:59 PM

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EURO did show 3-5 inches for along I-80 Saturday night and even the heaviest was a tad north of us. Alberta Clippers all winter have trended north so I think we are in a sweet spot here in Omaha


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#81
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 04:45 PM

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EURO did show 3-5 inches for along I-80 Saturday night and even the heaviest was a tad north of us. Alberta Clippers all winter have trended north so I think we are in a sweet spot here in Omaha


Lincoln area?

#82
Niko

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:04 PM

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Nice system approaching SMI. :D



#83
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:05 PM

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Lincoln area?


2". 4" bullseye is in Dodge County.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#84
Snowlover76

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:11 PM

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2". 4" bullseye is in Dodge County.



Well it was nice while it lasted. This will probable trend less and less over time.

#85
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:14 PM

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Well it was nice while it lasted. This will probable trend less and less over time.


It's one run of one model. It just so happens to be the lowest amount out of all the models.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#86
clintbeed1993

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:51 PM

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Well it was nice while it lasted. This will probable trend less and less over time.

 

Omaha is not gunna get more than Lincoln.  I 80 will be the best spot to be.  Most of the models have the heaviest stuff along the interstate



#87
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:56 PM

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Omaha is not gunna get more than Lincoln.  I 80 will be the best spot to be.  Most of the models have the heaviest stuff along the interstate

Just needs to stay along that path with a fluctuation of no more than 30 miles to the south. That's my distance from the interstate off to the north. This is gonna be a nail bitter for my area.......



#88
clintbeed1993

Posted 22 December 2017 - 06:10 PM

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Just needs to stay along that path with a fluctuation of no more than 30 miles to the south. That's my distance from the interstate off to the north. This is gonna be a nail bitter for my area.......

 

I think you're in a good spot.  New NAM keeps snow band along the interstate.


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#89
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 06:35 PM

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NAM is going with the southern solution.

#90
gabel23

Posted 22 December 2017 - 06:58 PM

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I think you're in a good spot.  New NAM keeps snow band along the interstate.

Narrow band but looks great, nice little 4" spot right in my area. I would gladly take a 1-3" band looking just like this, see what the other models have to show. 

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#91
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:04 PM

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RGEM also looks South so far.

#92
bud2380

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:09 PM

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RGEM gets all the way down to southern Missouri

#93
clintbeed1993

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:10 PM

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Narrow band but looks great, nice little 4" spot right in my area. I would gladly take a 1-3" band looking just like this, see what the other models have to show. 

 

NWS is playing this pretty conservative.  Only putting 1 to 2 inches in the area.  I would think they would take it a bit more seriously considering it's Christmas weekend.  Pretty strange. 4 inches is very possible with the higher snow ratios.



#94
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:10 PM

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Sucks! Doesn't even give me a flake



#95
Andrew NE

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:20 PM

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NWS is playing this pretty conservative. Only putting 1 to 2 inches in the area. I would think they would take it a bit more seriously considering it's Christmas weekend. Pretty strange. 4 inches is very possible with the higher snow ratios.


That is very true, although the NAM really was overdone on snow totals from this last system so they may be taking that into account. Like most have mentioned ratios should be solid.

#96
NEJeremy

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:21 PM

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0Z NAM models show the heaviest stripe in southern Nebraska with the regular NAM giving 5” to Lincoln and 2” to Omaha. The hi res NAM is much less generous with amounts with generally 1-2” in those same areas

#97
Guest_Snowball_*

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:39 PM

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OAX updated there discussion and and upped there snow totals.
  • jaster220 likes this

#98
jcwxguy

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:45 PM

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gfs

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  • Attached File  gfs.png   255.77KB   1 downloads


#99
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:47 PM

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Wow.......trend is back south :(



#100
james1976

Posted 22 December 2017 - 07:48 PM

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Lincoln special for once.....