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February 2018 Star-Studded Tribute to 1990 Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest

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#1
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Battle for second place in a tricky sun-angled test of everyone's mad forecasting skillz.

Sun-Wed

PDX AND KSEA

Highs and lows

Submit by Friday night at 11pm.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2
Front Ranger

Posted 15 February 2018 - 08:44 AM

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Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3
Jesse

Posted 15 February 2018 - 08:51 AM

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Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.


It probably won’t be graded.

#4
Front Ranger

Posted 15 February 2018 - 10:02 AM

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It probably won’t be graded.

 

Perfect.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#5
Deweydog

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:11 PM

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Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.


Dayyyyum!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#6
Deweydog

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:15 PM

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PDX (Portland International Airport):

Sun: 42/32
Mon: 39/27
Tue: 40/23
Wed: 38/30

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#7
Jesse

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:32 PM

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So are we doing the high and low for the 24 hour period, or the daily high followed by the next morning's low?

Assuming the former.

PDX:

Sun: 44/31
Mon: 37/25
Tue: 39/19
Wed: 37/27 (snow????)

SEA:

Sun: 42/26
Mon: 35/24
Tue: 38/23
Wed: 39/31

#8
Deweydog

Posted 15 February 2018 - 07:16 PM

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High and low for the day.

For reference, the day begins and ends at 11:53 p.m. PST.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#9
snow_wizard

Posted 15 February 2018 - 09:32 PM

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I'm in on this one.  The ones I've seen so far look way too warm.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#10
BLI snowman

Posted 15 February 2018 - 09:37 PM

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Sunday:

 

SEA: 41/27

PDX: 45/30

 

Monday:

 

SEA: 36/24

PDX: 40/23

 

Tuesday:

 

SEA: 41/22

PDX: 44/21

 

Wednesday:

 

SEA: 43/29

PDX: 42/28



#11
Front Ranger

Posted 15 February 2018 - 10:57 PM

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Sunday:

 

SEA: 41/27

PDX: 45/30

 

Monday:

 

SEA: 36/24

PDX: 40/23

 

Tuesday:

 

SEA: 41/22

PDX: 44/21

 

Wednesday:

 

SEA: 43/29

PDX: 42/28

 

Couple records in there, Mr. Optimistic.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#12
BLI snowman

Posted 15 February 2018 - 11:04 PM

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Couple records in there, Mr. Optimistic.

 

Yeah, it'll be alright.

 

Down this way I'm thinking that we're going to have to wait until the PCP induced snow shower setup in early March to score some decent highs.



#13
Geos

Posted 16 February 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Sunday:

 

PDX: 43/29

SEA: 40/27

 

Monday:

 

PDX: 39/26

SEA: 35/24

 

Tuesday: 

 

PDX: 38/23

SEA: 36/22

 

Wednesday: 

 

PDX: 42/29

SEA: 39/25


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#14
Geos

Posted 16 February 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Pinned until Wedneday.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#15
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:11 PM

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Debating lowering my highs for Monday/Tuesday...

#16
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:28 PM

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Debating lowering my highs for Monday/Tuesday...


Go for it!

Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#17
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

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Go for it!

Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie!


Only if you raise yours, Mat.

Every run of every model has been steadily trending warmer, after all.

#18
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:37 PM

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Only if you raise yours, Mat.

Every run of every model has been steadily trending warmer, after all.


I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#19
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:40 PM

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I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.

 

I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.



#20
Phil

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:48 PM

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I’ll take a shot at this one. Will be my first cold season contest for the PNW, so I’m going to have to study up a bit first. 🤓
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#21
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 02:49 PM

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I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.


This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#22
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:04 PM

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This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

 

That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

 

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

 

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

 

Perfect storm of underachievement?? ;)



#23
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:25 PM

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That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

Perfect storm of underachievement?? ;)


It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#24
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:29 PM

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It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

 

It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.



#25
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:31 PM

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It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.


That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#26
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:34 PM

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That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

 

I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake. Almost as much as I do snow.

 

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.



#27
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:39 PM

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I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake almost as much as I do snow.

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.


I remember being in Gresham that afternoon. Sunny, windy and cold. Funny thing is, I have a meeting in the morning at the same place on Monday. Sunny and coldish?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#28
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:41 PM

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I remember being in Gresham that afternoon. Sunny, windy and cold. Funny thing is, I have a meeting in the morning at the same place on Monday. Sunny and coldish?

 

Analog if I have ever heard one. B)


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#29
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:20 PM

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Three hours and change to get your forecasts, wishcasts and typecasts in! Millions will enter, no one will win!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#30
seattleweatherguy

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:22 PM

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I will also try to participate, my first contest since the old farmers fourum days
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#31
Front Ranger

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:29 PM

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Sunday:

 

PDX: 44/31

SEA: 38/27

 

Monday:

 

PDX: 36/26

SEA: 33/23

 

Tuesday: 

 

PDX: 37/21

SEA: 36/20

 

Wednesday: 

 

PDX: 42/25

SEA: 39/26


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#32
GHweatherChris

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:03 PM

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Sunday:



PDX: 46/34

SEA: 42/32



Monday:



PDX: 38/27

SEA: 35/26



Tuesday:



PDX: 35/26

SEA: 35/24



Wednesday:



PDX: 39/27

SEA: 39/28

#33
seattleweatherguy

Posted 16 February 2018 - 09:42 PM

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Sea

Sunday 37/30. 1.5 inches snow
Monday 33/22
Tuesday 36/25
Wed. 37/30

PDX

Sunday 38/31 1 inch snow
Monday 34/25
Tuesday 36/29
Wed. 38/32

#34
snow_wizard

Posted 16 February 2018 - 09:44 PM

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I'm going to just do Seattle right now and then come back for Portland before midnight.  I'm counting on the Fraser outflow being colder than most are expecting.

 

SEA - 

 

Sunday:

 

42 / 26 = high set at midnight (afternoon high 35), low set at 11:59 PM

 

 

Monday:

 

32 / 22

 

 

Tuesday:

 

35 / 20

 

 

Wednesday:

 

38 / 22


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#35
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 16 February 2018 - 10:52 PM

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Here's my final forecast. I think the Arctic Front is going to dump more snow than expected. Upwards of 4 to 6 inches in even the lowest elevations. Solid snow cover will keep highs close to freezing on Monday. Then another round on Tuesday night and Wednesday with the BC slider. Good luck to all in the contest and may the best meteorologist win!


KSEA

Sun: 38/26
Mon: 34/23
Tue: 39/26
Wed: 40/33


KPDX

Sun: 42/27
Mon: 33/18
Tue: 40/27
Wed: 37/29

#36
Jesse

Posted 16 February 2018 - 10:59 PM

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PDX:

Sun: 44/31
Mon: 37/25
Tue: 39/19
Wed: 37/27 (snow????)

SEA:

Sun: 42/26
Mon: 35/24
Tue: 38/23
Wed: 39/31 (snow?????)


Finalé.

#37
Deweydog

Posted 16 February 2018 - 11:00 PM

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SHUT IT DOWN!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#38
Phil

Posted 17 February 2018 - 12:35 AM

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Gahh, I got home too late.
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#39
snow_wizard

Posted 17 February 2018 - 09:48 AM

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I was too tired to do Portland last night.  I might try it today although it won't be official.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#40
Deweydog

Posted 19 February 2018 - 06:03 AM

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Sunday:

PDX:

44/32

KSEA:

39/30

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#41
Deweydog

Posted 19 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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Monday:

PDX:

40/30

KSEA:

37/28

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#42
Deweydog

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:26 AM

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Tuesday:

PDX:

34/30

KSEA:

36/27

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#43
BLI snowman

Posted 21 February 2018 - 01:06 AM

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Bust, LOL!!



#44
Deweydog

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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Wednesday:

PDX:

37/23

KSEA:

34/26

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#45
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:05 PM

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So who won Deweydog!!?? Who won gold silver and bronze????

#46
Deweydog

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:27 PM

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Still tallying things. Pretty busy. Hope to be done by mid month. Tune in for updates.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#47
Deweydog

Posted 21 March 2018 - 05:16 PM

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Still crunching numbers. Trying to balance watching TV, reading food labels and sleeping. Hope to be done before Easter. Jesus would have wanted it that way. Tune in for more updates!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#48
Deweydog

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:23 PM

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Easter update!

Preparations for today's egg hunt and screening of Mel Gibson's Passion of the Christ took a lot longer and were more involved than anticipated. Still working things up, hoping for a possible Earth Day reveal of winners and associate prestigious accolades.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#49
Deweydog

Posted 13 April 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Ugh!

Due to a little of the ol' Friday the 13th butter fingers, I managed to spill about a six month supply of natural male enhancement essential oils all over my notes and calculations! That viscous substance soaked right into the purple construction paper and rendered the sidewalk chalk completely illegible. Long story short, Earth Day is probably a no go. Check back for updates and have a great day!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#50
Phil

Posted 13 April 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Lol, I’ll do it for you. This incessant, forum-wide laziness needs to die.
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