February 2018 Star-Studded Tribute to 1990 Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest

[Deweydog]

Battle for second place in a tricky sun-angled test of everyone's mad forecasting skillz.

 

Sun-Wed

 

PDX AND KSEA

 

Highs and lows

 

Submit by Friday night at 11pm.

[Front Ranger]

Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.

[Jesse]

Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.

It probably won’t be graded.

[Front Ranger]

It probably won’t be graded.

 

Perfect.

[Deweydog]

Feels like it's time for a comeback. I just might participate in this one.

Dayyyyum!

[Deweydog]

PDX (Portland International Airport):

 

Sun: 42/32

Mon: 39/27

Tue: 40/23

Wed: 38/30

[Jesse]

So are we doing the high and low for the 24 hour period, or the daily high followed by the next morning's low?

 

Assuming the former.

 

PDX:

 

Sun: 44/31

Mon: 37/25

Tue: 39/19

Wed: 37/27 (snow????)

 

SEA:

 

Sun: 42/26

Mon: 35/24

Tue: 38/23

Wed: 39/31

[Deweydog]

High and low for the day.

 

For reference, the day begins and ends at 11:53 p.m. PST.

[snow_wizard]

I'm in on this one.  The ones I've seen so far look way too warm.

[BLI snowman]

Sunday:

 

SEA: 41/27

PDX: 45/30

 

Monday:

 

SEA: 36/24

PDX: 40/23

 

Tuesday:

 

SEA: 41/22

PDX: 44/21

 

Wednesday:

 

SEA: 43/29

PDX: 42/28

[Front Ranger]

Sunday:

 

SEA: 41/27

PDX: 45/30

 

Monday:

 

SEA: 36/24

PDX: 40/23

 

Tuesday:

 

SEA: 41/22

PDX: 44/21

 

Wednesday:

 

SEA: 43/29

PDX: 42/28

 

Couple records in there, Mr. Optimistic.

[BLI snowman]

Couple records in there, Mr. Optimistic.

 

Yeah, it'll be alright.

 

Down this way I'm thinking that we're going to have to wait until the PCP induced snow shower setup in early March to score some decent highs.

[Geos]

Sunday:

 

PDX: 43/29

SEA: 40/27

 

Monday:

 

PDX: 39/26

SEA: 35/24

 

Tuesday: 

 

PDX: 38/23

SEA: 36/22

 

Wednesday: 

 

PDX: 42/29

SEA: 39/25

[Geos]

Pinned until Wedneday.

[Jesse]

Debating lowering my highs for Monday/Tuesday...

[Deweydog]

Debating lowering my highs for Monday/Tuesday...

Go for it!

 

Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie!

[Jesse]

Go for it!

 

Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie! Jes-sie!

Only if you raise yours, Mat.

 

Every run of every model has been steadily trending warmer, after all.

[Deweydog]

Only if you raise yours, Mat.

 

Every run of every model has been steadily trending warmer, after all.

I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.

[Jesse]

I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.

 

I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.

This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

[Jesse]

This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

 

That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

 

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

 

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

 

Perfect storm of underachievement??

[Deweydog]

That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

 

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

 

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

 

Perfect storm of underachievement??

It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

[Jesse]

It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

 

It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.

[Deweydog]

It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.

That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

[Jesse]

That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

 

I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake. Almost as much as I do snow.

 

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.

[Deweydog]

I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake almost as much as I do snow.

 

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.

I remember being in Gresham that afternoon. Sunny, windy and cold. Funny thing is, I have a meeting in the morning at the same place on Monday. Sunny and coldish?

[Jesse]

I remember being in Gresham that afternoon. Sunny, windy and cold. Funny thing is, I have a meeting in the morning at the same place on Monday. Sunny and coldish?

 

Analog if I have ever heard one.

[Deweydog]

Three hours and change to get your forecasts, wishcasts and typecasts in! Millions will enter, no one will win!

[seattleweatherguy]

I will also try to participate, my first contest since the old farmers fourum days

[Front Ranger]

Sunday:

 

PDX: 44/31

SEA: 38/27

 

Monday:

 

PDX: 36/26

SEA: 33/23

 

Tuesday: 

 

PDX: 37/21

SEA: 36/20

 

Wednesday: 

 

PDX: 42/25

SEA: 39/26

[GHweatherChris]

Sunday:

 

 

 

PDX: 46/34

 

SEA: 42/32

 

 

 

Monday:

 

 

 

PDX: 38/27

 

SEA: 35/26

 

 

 

Tuesday:

 

 

 

PDX: 35/26

 

SEA: 35/24

 

 

 

Wednesday:

 

 

 

PDX: 39/27

 

SEA: 39/28

[seattleweatherguy]

Sea

 

Sunday 37/30. 1.5 inches snow

Monday 33/22

Tuesday 36/25

Wed. 37/30

 

PDX

 

Sunday 38/31 1 inch snow

Monday 34/25

Tuesday 36/29

Wed. 38/32

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to just do Seattle right now and then come back for Portland before midnight.  I'm counting on the Fraser outflow being colder than most are expecting.

 

SEA - 

 

Sunday:

 

42 / 26 = high set at midnight (afternoon high 35), low set at 11:59 PM

 

 

Monday:

 

32 / 22

 

 

Tuesday:

 

35 / 20

 

 

Wednesday:

 

38 / 22

[Thermal Trough]

Here's my final forecast. I think the Arctic Front is going to dump more snow than expected. Upwards of 4 to 6 inches in even the lowest elevations. Solid snow cover will keep highs close to freezing on Monday. Then another round on Tuesday night and Wednesday with the BC slider. Good luck to all in the contest and may the best meteorologist win!

 

 

KSEA

 

Sun: 38/26

Mon: 34/23

Tue: 39/26

Wed: 40/33

 

 

KPDX

 

Sun: 42/27

Mon: 33/18

Tue: 40/27

Wed: 37/29

[Jesse]

PDX:

 

Sun: 44/31

Mon: 37/25

Tue: 39/19

Wed: 37/27 (snow????)

 

SEA:

 

Sun: 42/26

Mon: 35/24

Tue: 38/23

Wed: 39/31 (snow?????)

Finalé.

[Deweydog]

SHUT IT DOWN!!!

[Phil]

Gahh, I got home too late.

[snow_wizard]

I was too tired to do Portland last night.  I might try it today although it won't be official.

[Deweydog]

Sunday:

 

PDX:

 

44/32

 

KSEA:

 

39/30