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February 2018 Star-Studded Tribute to 1990 Arctic Outbreak Forecast Contest


Deweydog

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I'm in on this one.  The ones I've seen so far look way too warm.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Sunday:

 

PDX: 43/29

SEA: 40/27

 

Monday:

 

PDX: 39/26

SEA: 35/24

 

Tuesday: 

 

PDX: 38/23

SEA: 36/22

 

Wednesday: 

 

PDX: 42/29

SEA: 39/25

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Only if you raise yours, Mat.

 

Every run of every model has been steadily trending warmer, after all.

I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I like mine. Might be a little too cold for Sunday's high but I'll let it ride. Monday night/Tuesday morning could get a little colder if it all comes together just right.

 

I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.

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I feel like I have come to expect a few degrees of 850mbs to be clipped off of any incoming cold continental or arctic airmass right before verification. But lately it doesn't seem like it happens so much. Maybe the models have gotten better at recognizing terrain issues earlier in the game.

This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This doesn't strike me as a typical, terrain-heavy advection event. It's more of a hybrid, which isn't too much of a surprise given we're slipping quickly out of outflow season. Shouldn't see any last minute 48 hour moderation in the models as happens often times with a more tradjtinal "low level" advection dependent on offshore gradients. This seems more like a November 2010 Jr.

 

That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

 

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

 

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

 

Perfect storm of underachievement?? ;)

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That's true. But I do think the models have gotten better at factoring in the terrain a bit earlier as well.

 

November 2010 is actually a pretty decent analog from an upper air standpoint. Hopefully a juicier front this time around.

 

Also worth noting that we didn't really get anything in the way of strong offshore flow with that one either, despite it happening pretty squarely in the early part of the inversion season. So the lack of outflow being modeled may have just as much to do with the nature of the pattern as the lateness of the calendar. They are probably both factors to a degree.

 

Perfect storm of underachievement?? ;)

It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It's definitely pattern-driven as well. 2-17-06 shows that a true advection/outflow setup is still very much possible right now with the right upper level support.

 

It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.

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It's funny you mention that one because I was about to throw it out as an example too. I can still remember that day. Afternoon high of 30 or so with raging outflow. Things did moderate very quickly in the following days though.

That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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That was a beast. Boring, but a beast.

 

I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake. Almost as much as I do snow.

 

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.

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I really enjoyed it, but I am an oddball who enjoys anomalous cold and the patterns associated with it for its own sake almost as much as I do snow.

 

It might have helped that we took a drive up to Zigzag that afternoon where there was a decent snowpack, if I recall.

I remember being in Gresham that afternoon. Sunny, windy and cold. Funny thing is, I have a meeting in the morning at the same place on Monday. Sunny and coldish?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm going to just do Seattle right now and then come back for Portland before midnight.  I'm counting on the Fraser outflow being colder than most are expecting.

 

SEA - 

 

Sunday:

 

42 / 26 = high set at midnight (afternoon high 35), low set at 11:59 PM

 

 

Monday:

 

32 / 22

 

 

Tuesday:

 

35 / 20

 

 

Wednesday:

 

38 / 22

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here's my final forecast. I think the Arctic Front is going to dump more snow than expected. Upwards of 4 to 6 inches in even the lowest elevations. Solid snow cover will keep highs close to freezing on Monday. Then another round on Tuesday night and Wednesday with the BC slider. Good luck to all in the contest and may the best meteorologist win!

 

 

KSEA

 

Sun: 38/26

Mon: 34/23

Tue: 39/26

Wed: 40/33

 

 

KPDX

 

Sun: 42/27

Mon: 33/18

Tue: 40/27

Wed: 37/29

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I was too tired to do Portland last night.  I might try it today although it won't be official.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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