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The Presidents Day Storm

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#51
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Gem showing it now as well from eastern IA up through S. WI

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#52
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 February 2018 - 09:00 AM

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Yuck!

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#53
WBadgersW

Posted 17 February 2018 - 09:23 AM

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I don't recall ever getting a good size ice storm

#54
gosaints

Posted 17 February 2018 - 02:39 PM

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I don't recall ever getting a good size ice storm


They are terrible of you experience a real one. I drove through northern Arkansas after the big dog..

#55
Grizzcoat

Posted 17 February 2018 - 03:01 PM

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About the only thing (widespread) here in the Upper  Midwest you have to be concerned about for long term power outages. Several years back parts of rural IA were without power for weeks after a major ice storm. The latest Euro has .25" of ice in this neck of the woods Tuesday. Even I -as a winter weather nut don't really like ice storms, though, the release of latent heat during the freezing process is pretty cool to watch on a quality home weather station. They also can ruin a camping experience rather quickly having to be up all night knocking the ice of your tent so it doesn't collapse. Been there done that.


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#56
CentralNebWeather

Posted 17 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

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December 29-30, 2006, horrible ice storm here. We were without power for close to 1 week. Many trees never recovered. Didn’t go back to school until January 15th since it took longer to get power back and new poles up in rural parts of many counties.

#57
james1976

Posted 17 February 2018 - 03:12 PM

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Feb 2007 was the big ice storm here. Widespread 1-2 INCHES of ice. I only lost power for 24 hours but many were out for at least a week. Poles were snapped and power lines down everywhere. 


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#58
westMJim

Posted 17 February 2018 - 03:30 PM

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The biggest ice storm I have seen was the one that started on March 2nd 1976

 

http://www.mlive.com...c_1976_ice.html

Here is some video from Saginaw

http://wfgr.com/the-...his-week-video/

 

Still can remember the sound of trees cracking and falling from the ice. 


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#59
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Gfs really upped the potential

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#60
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 04:39 PM

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Milwaukee AFD talking about ice storm warnings possibly in the future along with ice accumulation of up to .4

#61
WBadgersW

Posted 17 February 2018 - 05:31 PM

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Gfs really upped the potential

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=


Thank god other models arent as bullish

#62
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 February 2018 - 05:34 PM

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What did the euro have? The euro has always been the biggest champion for ice with this event, though weather.us doesn’t show ice accretion.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#63
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 05:37 PM

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Thank god other models arent as bullish


18z NAM took a huge jump in ice totals as well

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Will be interesting what the 0z runs say

#64
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 06:46 PM

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Nam crushes eastern Iowa into most of southern/central WI

Widespread 1/4-1/2 of ice

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=us_mw&dpdt=
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#65
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:32 PM

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Looks like just a light glaze here. Thank God.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#66
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:35 PM

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What did the euro have? The euro has always been the biggest champion for ice with this event, though weather.us doesn’t show ice accretion.

Basically crushes all of IA East of US 59. Some 0.5-0.6" amounts in there. 0.4" amounts are widespread East of I-35.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#67
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:45 PM

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Basically crushes all of IA East of US 59. Some 0.5-0.6" amounts in there. 0.4" amounts are widespread East of I-35.

fantastic. That's exactly what I want...


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#68
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:48 PM

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fantastic. That's exactly what I want...

This is the first time I've ever been happy to be in a dry slot.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#69
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:57 PM

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Gfs similar to 18z

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Biggest takeaway tho is that it warms up with the second wave as it’s farther north

Temps get to about 40 on Tuesday

Still widespread 1/2 ice amounts tho

#70
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 February 2018 - 08:07 PM

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00Z GFS brings >0.1" ice amounts to parts of Southeast Nebraska Tuesday.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#71
Grizzcoat

Posted 18 February 2018 - 12:00 AM

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Euro has a grid busting ice storm for  Central IA--- further E into S.WI it's all rain. Euro doesn't do ice maps (as far as what I have) but look at these soundings for DSM (not good)

 

MON 12Z 19-FEB   7.2     9.5    1003      96      43    0.32     558     555   
MON 18Z 19-FEB   2.3     9.2    1006      92      60    0.16     559     554   
TUE 00Z 20-FEB  -0.3     6.4    1010      83      64    0.07     559     552   
TUE 06Z 20-FEB  -2.0     8.1    1010      87      79    0.30     560     552   
TUE 12Z 20-FEB  -2.5     7.8    1010      92      62    0.19     560     552   
TUE 18Z 20-FEB  -4.1     3.2    1015      83      76    0.09     558     547  
 



#72
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 02:16 AM

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Winter Storm watch issued for 1/4 to 1/2 ice.
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#73
St Paul Storm

Posted 18 February 2018 - 04:37 AM

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So much for the 50s you wanted Money.

Up to 0.1” of ice and up to localized 6” of snow here. 1/4” of ice up to the southern part of the metro. Tomorrow isn’t going to be fun

#74
Grizzcoat

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:01 AM

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This is going to be a major ice storm for many reading this.

#75
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:25 AM

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Nam just came in a lot drier for tomorrow (hopefully this continues)

#76
St Paul Storm

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Fortunately with tomorrow being a holiday many people won’t be on the roads. Otherwise this would really be even more concerning. The ice and snow have been focused on the most but the winds will be quite strong as well. Put a few tenths of an inch of ice on power lines with 30-40mph gusts and you’re going to have widespread outages.

#77
St Paul Storm

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:30 AM

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12z NAM with some massive sleet for the metro for a while tomorrow. It’s been inching the sleet and ice further north.

#78
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:45 AM

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Was just about to post here saying OAX should probably hoist an advisory but I saw they already did!

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#79
james1976

Posted 18 February 2018 - 06:57 AM

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Im in a winter storm watch for potential 0.25 ice. Talking nearly impossible travel and power outtages. Been a long time since ive dealt with a legit ice storm.

#80
james1976

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:05 AM

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DMX saying ice warning criteria is possible

#81
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:24 AM

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Driving to downtown tomorrow should be fun. This is a great time to have 3 tests in 2 days. Just enough ice to make roads bad, but not enough to make this a high publicity event, so there will be an increased number of people driving like morons on icy roads.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#82
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:41 AM

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Looks like our ptype Tuesday morning should be sleet. I'd be happier with that than ZR.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#83
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Gfs says what freezing rain?

Temps are a few degrees warmer which makes all the difference

#84
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:49 AM

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Although the second wave is much colder and destroys Milwaukee (1+ inch fzr)

What a tough forecast. Degree or two difference is all it takes

#85
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

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12z gfs

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#86
bud2380

Posted 18 February 2018 - 08:35 AM

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I’m glad I look to be on the warm side of this and all rain.

#87
bud2380

Posted 18 February 2018 - 08:51 AM

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12z Canadian has .89” ice for Iowa City. I should probably fire up the generator today just to make sure it’s humming. Just in case.

#88
Snowlover76

Posted 18 February 2018 - 09:24 AM

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This is the first time I've ever been happy to be in a dry slot.


we need rain

#89
Hawkeye

Posted 18 February 2018 - 09:38 AM

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There are big differences between the GFS and Euro with regard to qpf.  The euro has consistently shown about 2" precip here, while the 12z GFS is down to < 0.50".  I'm wondering if the GFS might be suffering from convective feedback, causing it to hold all the heavy precip well southeast where the thunderstorms are.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#90
snowstorm83

Posted 18 February 2018 - 09:45 AM

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Freezing drizzle is the lamest way to be under an advisory. Would rather get a sub-advisory snowfall to whiten things up a bit. 


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#91
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 February 2018 - 09:49 AM

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I'm rooting for us to break 60 today. Maybe it'll warm the ground up a bit so the roads take longer to freeze over tomorrow.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#92
Tabitha

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:14 AM

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Some light snow falling here just after 11 AM MDT with a temperature of 29 F.



#93
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:18 AM

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There are big differences between the GFS and Euro with regard to qpf. The euro has consistently shown about 2" precip here, while the 12z GFS is down to < 0.50". I'm wondering if the GFS might be suffering from convective feedback, causing it to hold all the heavy precip well southeast where the thunderstorms are.


How’s the euro look?

#94
bud2380

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Euro still showing about 2” qpf for Cedar Rapids but only very small amount would be ice (if any).

#95
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Ice storm warning issued for here

http://forecast.weat...92#.WonLyXBMGEc

Interesting considering the 12z runs barely had anything

#96
james1976

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:57 AM

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How is Euro looking for ice across N IA?



#97
WBadgersW

Posted 18 February 2018 - 10:59 AM

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Very colorful... Attached File  Capture+_2018-02-18-12-57-47.png   667.19KB   1 downloads

#98
Tony

Posted 18 February 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Ice storm warning issued for here

http://forecast.weat...92#.WonLyXBMGEc

Interesting considering the 12z runs barely had anything

Maybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw.

#99
Money

Posted 18 February 2018 - 11:04 AM

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Maybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw.


I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas

Tough forecast either way tho

#100
Tony

Posted 18 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

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I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas

Tough forecast either way tho

Yep, better to be safe especially on a work day when there is more traffic