March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

I see snow in the Oregon Coast Range!

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles still look cool and damp in the long range. Wonder if the EPS will come to its senses eventually.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS ensembles still look cool and damp in the long range. Wonder if the EPS will come to its senses eventually.

 

B28FEED0-941A-4BAF-8134-B0E20D8FEF4D.png

 

So encouraging! Missed you Jesse.

[Jesse]

So encouraging! Missed you Jesse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I saw the mean at PDX March 1-15 was colder than the mean in both January and December this year. 

 

The snow has kept things relatively colder up here even during the past week. Saw Pendleton ran like a -18 departure the first half of the month. 

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX fell to 35 this morning. 31 at VUO.

[Jesse]

I saw the mean at PDX March 1-15 was colder than the mean in both January and December this year.

 

The snow has kept things relatively colder up here even during the past week. Saw Pendleton ran like a -18 departure the first half of the month.

 

It’s too bad the respectable monthly negative anomalies are going to get DESTROYED the next few days. But I could still see March ending up below average overall, especially if we get into a more cool to normal pattern the last 7-10 days of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s too bad the respectable monthly negative anomalies are going to get DESTROYED the next few days. But I could still see March ending up below average overall, especially if we get into a more cool to normal pattern the last 7-10 days of the month.

 

Yeah. In the valley. Places who had snow cover like The Dalles, Pendleton, etc... Will definitely have very significant departures.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX fell to 35 this morning. 31 at VUO.

 

The chilly lows will keep things from getting to crazy on the + departure side. Those are below average lows. My low of 33 this morning is the first above freezing low of the month. 

[snow_wizard]

It’s too bad the respectable monthly negative anomalies are going to get DESTROYED the next few days. But I could still see March ending up below average overall, especially if we get into a more cool to normal pattern the last 7-10 days of the month.

 

The cold mins will help a lot in places susceptible to those in cases like this.

[Requiem]

Looks like the NWS has put up a wind advisory for the PDX metro area. Strange, they didn't do it during the fiendishly strong east winds on February 27th.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=wind%20advisory

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS ensembles still look cool and damp in the long range. Wonder if the EPS will come to its senses eventually.

 

B28FEED0-941A-4BAF-8134-B0E20D8FEF4D.png

 

The GFS ensemble has been very consistent with the cooling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mean temp for the month through yesterday is 35 here. Average low including this mornings low has been 26.2 

[ShawniganLake]

Mean temp for the month through yesterday is 35 here. Average low including this mornings low has been 26.2

Average low for the month has been 26.2 here as well.

[snow_wizard]

The FV-3 is very chilly in the long range. 

 

Nice!  Return of the 150 ridge, low thicknesses, and northerly surface pressure gradients.  Seeing this recur would be exactly what I'm hoping for.  Hopefully whatever has been overriding ENSO will continue to do so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice!  Return of the 150 ridge, low thicknesses, and northerly surface pressure gradients.  Seeing this recur would be exactly what I'm hoping for.  Hopefully whatever has been overriding ENSO will continue to do so.

 

Doesn't look like a total washout either, so I think Tim wouldn't mind it too much.

[snow_wizard]

Average low for the month has been 26.2 here as well.

 

Makes my 29.5 seem pretty weak by comparison, but even that is extraordinary.  Yesterday I saw that OLM was running 24 point something.  Totally ridiculous.

[snow_wizard]

Doesn't look like a total washout either, so I think Tim wouldn't mind it too much.

 

I know I'll be flogged for saying this, but chilly and relatively dry is what I most want to see.  I love the continental stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know I'll be flogged for saying this, but chilly and relatively dry is what I most want to see.  I love the continental stuff.

 

It may delay spring growth a bit, but with mild days regardless it will just be typical seasonable variability. This year really shows how cold February/early March weather can delay vegetation. I have not seen one daffodil blooming yet and usually I see them in the valley by February 20th.  

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 12Z ECMWF just took away a portion of the rain for next weekend up here shown on previous runs. Run the GIF trend for next Sunday morning... steady move to the south and west on each run.

 

GFS has been too aggressive as well and seems slower to back off... but it has been backing off once it gets into the 4-6 day range.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't look like a total washout either, so I think Tim wouldn't mind it too much.

Pointless to discuss details right now when its probably is being way too aggressive with the overall pattern beyond day 7.

[Jesse]

Wow... 12Z ECMWF just took away almost all the rain for next weekend up here. Run the GIF trend for next Sunday morning... steady move to the south and west on each run.

 

GFS has been too aggressive as well and seems slower to back off... but it has been backing off once it gets into the 4-6 day range.

 

Starting to think we may be in the clear for the dry season starting in March this year. Was starting to get worried!

[Jesse]

Wow... 12Z ECMWF just took away a portion of the rain for next weekend up here shown on previous runs. Run the GIF trend for next Sunday morning... steady move to the south and west on each run.

 

GFS has been too aggressive as well and seems slower to back off... but it has been backing off once it gets into the 4-6 day range.

 

EDITS!!!

[TT-SEA]

EDITS!!!

A little more rain on Saturday night. Backing way off though from previous runs.

 

Much like the Wednesday rain event which is gone in all models now.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to think we may be in the clear for the dry season starting in March this year. Was starting to get worried!

Hyperbole!

[Jesse]

I know I'll be flogged for saying this, but chilly and relatively dry is what I most want to see. I love the continental stuff.

I think you just need to move somewhere more continental.

[Jesse]

Pointless to discuss details right now when its probably is being way too aggressive with the overall pattern beyond day 7.

Hyperbole!

[TT-SEA]

Hyperbole!

No... that is a straight up fact.

 

The models did the same thing when extending the cold. They kept showing the blocking ridge breaking down and then backed off as it got closer which kept it cold here. Except now the ridge is farther east.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows about .1 or .2 of rain in my area for the next 10 days... all coming Saturday night. With highs in the 60s again next Monday and Tuesday and dry.

 

And the 00Z EPS was consistent with ridging though day 15.

 

Hard to completely ignore the ECMWF trends and the consistent EPS. The EPS was wrong last month for awhile with breaking down the cold pattern too quickly... but it was never really consistent either like it was when it was showing the cold pattern starting in early February.

[TT-SEA]

Even at day 10... that system is sending some rain into CA while its basically dry and mild up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have another model battle. 

[TT-SEA]

We have another model battle.

Trends are the most important factor obviously. The ECMWF trend has been clear for days now. GFS seems to get there in the 4-6 day period.

[Jesse]

The last several years have really intensified my hatred of dry weather in the warm season.

[TT-SEA]

The last several years have really intensified my hatred of dry weather in the warm season.

No idea why I care to say anything to make you feel better when you absolutely relish in anything that I don't like... but its not the warm season. Its March.

 

And historically... a dry March means a wet April and May.

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

I think you just need to move somewhere more continental.

 

Eventually.  Amazing how this climate just wears you down over time.  I have a number of family members who have bailed over the past several years due to incessant gloom.  As long as we have stuff like the past 6 weeks I can deal with some crap too.  It is really sweet when we score here.

[TT-SEA]

Eventually.  Amazing how this climate just wears you down over time.  I have a number of family members who have bailed over the past several years due to incessant gloom.  As long as we have stuff like the past 6 weeks I can deal with some crap too.  It is really sweet when we score here.

 

One of you despises the gloom... and the other wants gloom all summer.      But you both agree on a typically brief cold spells.    

[snow_wizard]

The last several years have really intensified my hatred of dry weather in the warm season.

 

I actually despise rain during the warm season.  I hate the feel of the air when it's wet during the summer.  As I've said, very dry and cool summers used to be the norm here.  It's the whole Pacific High vs 4 Corners High thing.

[TT-SEA]

EPS keeps trending more ridgy with each run.   

 

Here is one week from today... its less troughy than the operational run.

 

[snow_wizard]

We have another model battle. 

 

We sure do.  I am rooting for the GFS for a plethora of reasons.